Some notes concerning Friday's snow event

With the tendency of some folks to freak out about snow forecasts here are some thoughts about Friday's winter weather event:

(1) Mecklenburg County looks to receive less accumulating snow than areas further north. 

(2) Although many people prefer exact answers that's not how weather forecasts work. Forecasts are typically probabilistic as shown in this side by side snow forecast graphic:

Thus the probability that Mecklenburg County will see two inches or more of snow is very low.

(3) One rule of thumb for snow:liquid ratio is 10:1, i.e. ten inches of snow equals roughly one inch of liquid. Thus the difference between a forecast for one inch of snow and for four inches of snow is a difference of 0.1" vs. 0.4" of liquid. That little bit of difference in available atmospheric liquid is almost impossible for numerical weather models to resolve accurately (try measuring that difference in a non-digital rain gauge!). Thus forecasters this time of year lose a lot of sleep - and hair - trying to determine how much snow will accumulate across their area of responsibility.

(4) There could be some freezing rain Friday night, but amounts look to be very low.

(5) With temperatures climbing into the mid- to upper 40s Saturday and Sunday any frozen stuff on the ground will be gone by the end of the weekend.

More details on the weekend weather will come in Friday's blogpost.