A heat wave to start this week, but then cooler and...rain?

Saturday's highs in the mid- and upper 80s pale in comparison to what can be expected during the first half of this week. The mid-90s will take charge starting today - Sunday - and last through Wednesday. A summer-like Bermuda High is setting up over the Atlantic, pumping in the heat via southerly winds.

This heat wave could be impactful, especially since a good part of May has featured cooler than average weather. Taking plenty of breaks, drinking lots of liquids, and staying out of the sun as much as possible are all heat tips which should be heeded. However, there is relief on the horizon.

A cold front will approach the region, bringing clouds and rain as soon as Wednesday night. The boundary will stall nearby, keeping things cooler and wetter. The rain could be heavy at times (right panel below), which is good news given the worsening drought situation (left panel). 

The clouds and rain will also bring relief to the heat, with daily high temperatures dropping considerably by Thursday.

The "bad" news is that Memorial Day weekend looks to be cool and wet. But that's not a bad thing given how much the rain is needed.

Stairstep air temperatures lead to a hot ending for the weekend!

This - Friday - morning most Mecklenburg County thermometers registered lows in the mid-40s. Under sunny skies and relatively dry air those readings will soar into the mid-70s this afternoon. That's still a few degrees below average for mid-May, but it'll be a glorious spring day nonetheless.

High pressure is centered across the eastern U.S. today. As it moves off the coast tonight, the clockwise circulation of air around the center will turn winds around out of the south, Warmer air will thus move in, with Saturday beginning with temperatures in the mid-50s before rising to afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Sunday looks to be even warmer, with morning lows in the 60s leading to afternoon temperatures climbing into the low 90s(!).

Under clear skies and with dry weather the waters of Buggs Island / Kerr Reservoir will be very inviting this weekend. Keep in mind that the water temperatures are still rather chilly. These readings are from the vicinity of the dam:

The heat will continue into the early part of next week, so prepare for a spring heat wave!
 

Dwindling Wednesday rain chances

Today - Wednesday - will be mostly sunny with afternoon temperatures topping out near the 80º mark. Just before today's sunset at 8:13 p.m. clouds will roll in thanks to an approaching cold front. Forecast rain totals from this boundary have now dissipated to less than a tenth of a inch, lending truth to an old weather saying that "Drought begets drought". 

The cold front is associated with a low pressure center which is traversing the Great Lakes region. Mature storm systems like this one produce a "comma-head" signature on satellite views as denoted on this image:

The cold front itself is just beginning to cross the Appalachian Mountains this morning.

Cooler air filtering in via northwest winds will hold Thursday's maximum temperatures to the low 70s. Skies will be mostly sunny tomorrow morning before clouds build overhead during the early afternoon hours. Those clouds will evaporate tomorrow night, and local thermometers will drop back into the mid-40s by dawn Friday.

Then the heat arrives for the weekend. Get those fans and air conditioners ready for the 90s to show back up by Sunday!!

Quick Tuesday update

Despite a reference to a Monday post in the last entry, that didn't happen. So here on Tuesday morning is a quick weather update.

This morning's fog is thanks to clear skies and light winds overnight. Temperatures sagged, matching the dew point of the air, and voila! Fog formed. That will clear off - officially known as "mixing out" instead of "burning off" - by 9:00 a.m. or so, leaving behind gorgeous blue skies, light winds, and afternoon highs in the low 70s at most sites around Mecklenburg County.

Wednesday will also be sunny but a bit breezier. Southerly winds ahead of another spring-time cold front will gust up to 20 mph tomorrow as temperatures top out in the upper 70s. Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will arrive after sunset. 

After a cooler day Thursday things will begin to heat up as the weekend approaches. Take a look at this temperature outlook over the next 6-10 days:

Ready for the 90s to re-enter the picture?

Finally, a sunny weekend!!

The midweek's storm system again underperformed regarding the amount of actual vs. expected rain totals. Here's a map showing the liquid amounts collected in local rain gauges through this Friday morning:

Instead of the half-inch to inch rainfall forecasts, Mecklenburg County was mostly in the quarter- to half-inch range. (The circled observation is the Island Creek Reservoir weather station, which has been exhibiting questionable temperature and rainfall measurements.) Those totals didn't put much of a dent in the increasingly dry conditions across the area.

Today will feature particularly nice weather to end the work week heading into the weekend. After Thursday's daytime temperatures only in the mid-50s, this morning's lows in the 40s will give way to afternoon readings in the low 70s. Brilliant May sunshine will dominate today's skies.

Saturday and Sunday both look to have almost perfect weather for outdoor enthusiasts. Sunshine and afternoon highs in the upper 70s tomorrow and mid-80s on Sunday will be more typical of May conditions than earlier this week. The one potential fly in the ointment will be a gusty southwest breeze Saturday, which could make Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir waters a bit choppy.

Clouds and rain showers will reenter the local picture Sunday night through Monday as a low pressure center forms along an approaching cold front. The next blogpost on Monday will take a look at the weather for the beginning of the work week.

Clouds and rain will be the midweek weather story

An approaching cold front will creep across the Appalachians today (Wednesday). Ahead of it southerly breezes will continue to gust over 20 mph, with light showers dampening the landscape this morning. That warm moist wind direction will enable temperatures to climb from this morning's low 60s to afternoon highs in the mid-70s despite the lack of sunshine. There may be a couple rumbles of thunder today as well, but nothing severe is expected.

Rain totals during the daylight hours won't be impressive. However, additional precipitation this evening and throughout Thursday will help boost liquid amounts collected in local gauges. Here's the latest NWS Wakefield outlook for rainfall totals from this system:

Thursday's official high temperature in the mid- to upper 60s will likely occur just after midnight tonight. That slow moving cold front will finally edge its way through Mecklenburg County tomorrow morning, opening the door to cooler air. Temperatures will thus fall into the upper 50s by lunch time tomorrow as winds swap around out of the north.

Skies will clear late Thursday afternoon, leading up to a sunny and pleasant Friday.

Warm and sunny to begin the work week, then rain later?

This Monday morning thermometers at Mecklenburg County sites bottomed out in the low 40s. Thanks to a southwesterly wind and strong May sunshine those readings will climb into the upper 70s this afternoon. That's pretty close to the 30 year average for this date.

Tonight those southerly breezes will gust up to 20 mph, ushering in much warmer air. Thus Tuesday morning low temperatures will only drop into the mid-50s, followed by afternoon highs in the low 80s under continued sunny skies. By tomorrow night clouds will begin to overspread the area as the next storm system moves across the mountains.

Some beneficial rain is therefore possible for the midweek period. At the moment this is the outlook for precipitation totals for the first and second halves of this week:

Fingers crossed that this next system will actually overcome the dry air currently in place over the region and bring that rain. We'll see.