Summer-like heat continues, but spring conditions return Sunday

Following this - Wednesday - morning's low temperatures near 60º many Mecklenburg County sites will see afternoon highs top out in the low 90s. Thankfully, this early season heat wave is accompanied by relatively low dew points in the 50s. That's keeping the humidity at more bearable levels than sticky summertime values in the 60s and 70s.

However, the heat still poses risks for folks. This graphic provides some reminders of actions to take which will mitigate those risks:

Thursday morning looks to begin with temperatures in the mid-60s, a bit warmer than this morning's readings. Afternoon highs will once again reach the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Tomorrow night a dissipating cold front will cross the Appalachians, reaching Mecklenburg locales Friday morning. The last day of the work week will be slightly cooler after that boundary creeps through, with local thermometers likely to top out "only" in the upper 80s.

Saturday will again be hot under sunny skies, but then a more robust cold front will push through Sunday. That will break the heat wave and send us back to springtime temperatures to begin next week.

A mid-April heat wave takes hold

The definition of a heat wave is two or more days of well-above average temperatures. Starting today - Monday - that description will fit Mecklenburg County locales. With a warm front having pushed north of the area temperatures will climb from this morning's low 60s into the mid-80s for afternoon highs. That's a good 15 degrees above mid-April averages.

Gusty southwest winds will also be in vogue today, ushering warmer and moister air into the area. More clouds will be evident today than yesterday, but skies look to remain at least partly sunny. The breezes will calm down by sunset at 7:47 p.m. in Clarksville.

After warm morning temperatures again in the low 60s, Tuesday afternoon will have a good chance of breaching the 90º mark. Sunny skies and southwest winds (although not as gusty as today) will make tomorrow feel more like July than April. That trend will continue the rest of this week, with this Weather Prediction Center graphic indicating "hazardous heat" across Virginia's Piedmont by Thursday:

The heat is on!

No rain, but plenty of heat is on the way this week

In mid-April the average temperatures in Mecklenburg County range from morning lows in the mid-40s to afternoon highs in the low 70s. Those values will seem like a distant memory as this week progresses. A persistent upper level ridge has established itself across the eastern U.S., allowing much warmer than normal air to bulge northward.

Today - Sunday - looks to be the coolest (least hot?) day of this week, with afternoon highs topping out around 80º after this morning's lows near 50º. A weak cold front which oozed through the area late Saturday afternoon has stopped its southward movement across North Carolina. Skies will be mostly sunny today, accompanied by light southerly winds.

Monday and Tuesday will see afternoon temperatures climb into the mid- and upper 80s, while daily highs the rest of the work week will soar into the 90s. Morning lows will only dip into the 60s as an early taste of summer weather takes charge. Hot and humid will be the order of the day for the latter half of the week.

Unfortunately that humidity won't lead to much-needed rain locally anytime soon. Here are the forecast rainfall totals across the lower 48 states through next Sunday morning:

Note two things on this graphic. First, little or no rain is predicted for Virginia. Second, the precipitation plume (black arrow) on the other side of the Appalachian Mountains indicates the western edge of the aforementioned upper level ridge. Storm systems are steered by those upper air winds, keeping the precipitation away from the local area.

Unfortunately this pattern doesn't look like it'll change anytime soon. A dry spring looms ahead.

One last chilly morning before a drastic but dry warmup

This - Friday - morning's temperatures around Mecklenburg County dipped into the upper 30s. That level of chill won't be repeated for quite some time as the weather pattern is changing. The early spring heat which has been plaguing the western U.S. is moving east.

The air will warm quickly as today progresses, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid-70s under sunny skies. Light southwesterly winds will help to boost temperatures as they usher in warmer air. By sunset (7:45 p.m. in Clarksville) local thermometers will fall into the mid-60s. However, the overnight cooling process will only result in the low 50s by dawn Saturday.

A weak cold front will pass through the region tomorrow, swapping the winds around out of the north. The boundary won't bring rain or significantly cooler air with it, so Saturday afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s. Sunday's weather looks similar, with temperatures topping out near the 80º mark.

Next week will then feature the 80s and even the 90s(!) for daytime highs. No rain is in the forecast anytime soon, which is not good news given the growing drought situation. This is the Drought Monitor released earlier this week:

Much of Virginia - including Mecklenburg County - has moved into the Severe Drought category. And note the red shading indicating Extreme Drought is edging into far southeast portions of the county. Rain may not be everyone's favorite kind of weather, but it is definitely needed...and soon!

Frost and freeze potential isn't over just yet

This Wednesday morning temperatures dipped into the mid-30s around Mecklenburg County, with Chase City "winning" the prize at 35º. Although spring is definitely in the air it's still a bit too early to leave sensitive flowers and other vegetation uncovered at night. This map from NWS Wakefield shows the latest average frost dates across eastern Virginia.

Since official thermometers are located 4.5 - 6 feet off the ground it's possible for overnight low temperatures to be recorded at 36º while frost forms at ground level.

Sunshine will rule the skies today thanks to high pressure centered over New England. Surface breezes will be out of the north and northeast, gusting at times over 15 mph. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 50s around the county for a cooler than average April day.

Thursday morning will bring another potential for frost with overnight lows in the mid-30s. Tomorrow then looks to feature a few more clouds around the area than today. Winds will be mostly calm, and temperatures will top out at more seasonable daily highs in the upper 60s.

Folks pining for warmer weather only have to wait until Friday and the weekend. The 70s and 80s will return soon enough!!

Seasonably cool to begin the work week

Sunday's rainfall totals around Mecklenburg County were pitiful, much less than was forecast by most of the numerical models. That doesn't bode well for the worsening drought conditions across the region, especially since conditions look to remain dry through the upcoming weekend. The upside is that this week will feature gorgeous April weather. 

The cold front which moved through the county late Sunday left behind a much cooler airmass than last week's anomalous heat and humidity. Temperatures began this Monday morning in the low 40s and will top out in the upper 60s this afternoon. That range is actually pretty close to the average for this point in April. Tuesday will be a couple degrees cooler behind another cold front which will reinforce the cooler and drier conditions.

Although there is no severe weather expected anytime soon, it's important to emphasize that having multiple ways to receive warnings is a good idea. One method to NOT count on is an outdoor siren. This graphic explains why folks indoors and/or sleeping shouldn't count on sirens to warn them:

Some folks may still expect to hear sirens when severe weather approaches. However, this 1950s era technology has been supplanted by more modern methods like cellphone apps, weather radios, and Wireless Emergency Alerts. Count on those for weather warnings.

A damp Easter Sunday followed by a dry and cooler week

Happy Easter! The rain associated with an approaching cold front looks to enter Mecklenburg County during the mid-morning hours today. That kept sunrise services dry, but folks attending services later on will need to consider toting an umbrella or two. Temperatures will remain mild much of Sunday, with the daily high topping out in the low 70s during the early afternoon.

Along with the showers there may be rumbles of thunder as the front gets closer. Gusty southwest winds will shift around out of the west after that boundary passes through near the dinner hour. The rain will begin to taper off by sunset, with cooler and drier air moving into the region overnight. The winds will calm somewhat as they turn around to come from the northwest.

Monday will begin with morning lows in the mid-40s under clear skies. Local thermometers will continue to sag into the 40s and even the 30s each morning as the week progresses. The National Weather Service issued this graphic to warn of a possible frost or freeze across the eastern parts of Virginia Wednesday morning:

The upcoming week looks to remain dry with afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s. By next weekend those readings could climb back into the 80s for another early taste of summer(!).