Monday morning showers will give way to afternoon sun

An upper level trough crossing Virginia this morning plus a small "wrinkle" in the wind flow are both helping to squeeze out a small amount of rain. This wasn't well-forecasted by the weather models over this past weekend. The circled area on this 500 millibar (about 18,000 feet overhead) chart indicates the location of that wrinkle at 10 o'clock this Monday morning:

Local rain gauges won't record much liquid from these showers, and the sun will begin to peek through the clouds after the lunch hour. Temperatures today will top out in the mid-60s.

Tuesday will dawn under partly cloudy skies, and thermometers around Mecklenburg County will start the day in the mid-40s before climbing into the mid-70s for afternoon highs. Wednesday then looks to be slightly warmer with abundant sunshine. Better chances of rain will arrive during the latter half of the work week as the next storm system works its way closer to the region.

A warmer and drier November appears likely

Today - Sunday, November 1st - will be only partly sunny as a northeasterly breeze brings in cool moist air from off the Atlantic, fostering a layer of low clouds. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the mid- to upper 60s. That's just about average for the beginning of this month. By the end of the month that average drops ten degrees to the mid- and upper 50s.

The long range outlook for November looks warmer and drier than average as shown on this graphic from the Climate Prediction Center:

Such projections are subject to change, so take them with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile, the upcoming work week will start out sunny and warmer. Monday will feature decreasing cloud cover and afternoon highs in the upper 60s, but Tuesday and Wednesday both look to be sunny with local thermometers topping out in the mid-70s. Rain is finally in the forecast for the latter part of the week.

For those waiting for winter conditions there are strong indications of a split in the polar vortex coming soon. That would allow much colder air to plunge southward sometime after Thanksgiving. There's no guarantee that the arctic stuff will invade the U.S., but stay tuned for updates on that.

A brief reintroduction to the 80s before turning cooler over the weekend

Thought the 80s were finished for 2026? Nope! This (Friday) afternoon there's a good chance that Mecklenburg County thermometers will climb to that mark. Thanks to high pressure overhead providing clear skies and light winds, the late October sunshine will heat the area to well above average temperatures. That's before a dry cold front pushes through by the dinner hour.

Much cooler air behind that boundary will make its way into the area overnight. Saturday then looks almost chilly in comparison, with highs in the mid-60s being just about the average for late October. The morning hours will be mostly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase tomorrow afternoon. For those Halloween trick-or-treaters temperatures will drop to the 60º mark by sunset at 6:17 p.m.

The other item to factor in on Saturday night is the switch back to Eastern Standard Time (EST). Officially this occurs at 2:00 a.m. Sunday morning...which then instantly becomes 1:00 a.m., thus gaining back the hour lost in the spring to Daylight Saving Time. Most modern timepieces will change automatically, but for those that don't:

For a bit this past week it looked like Sunday could bring some rain, but that no longer appears likely. The latter weekend day will begin with sunrise at 6:37 a.m. EST at the Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir dam, and temperatures will be in the low 40s. Skies will be only partly sunny with easterly winds bringing in low clouds from off the Atlantic. After afternoon highs again topping out in the mid-60s the first sunset of November will then occur at 5:16 p.m.

Happy Halloween!

A foggy start to Monday in spots

Temperatures and dew points are both very close to each other this Monday morning. Given light winds fog has formed in several spots around Mecklenburg County, especially near moisture sources like streams, rivers, and - of course - Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir. Check out this frame capture photo from a webcam in Clarksville:

As the sun warms the ground the air will begin to stir, mixing this saturated air with drier air surrounding it and thus causing the fog to dissipate. The correct scientific term is that fog "mixes out" vs. the widely used phrase "burning off"...in case folks were curious about that.

Today and tomorrow continue the overall highly recommendable weather conditions of this second half of October. Sunshine, light winds, and afternoon temperatures maxing out in the low 70s will keep that "Chamber of Commerce" feeling in the air. Tuesday morning lows will be similar to this morning's readings, so patchy fog could form again.

As for rain chances, dry air continues to dominate the forecast locally through the work week. The next chance of precipitation appears to be late Sunday, meaning Saturday evening's Halloween trick-or-treaters won't be dodging rain drops. That's a good thing, right?

"Chamber of Commerce" conditions continue for another week(!)

These very agreeable autumn conditions looks to continue throughout the upcoming work week. Sunshine, gentle breezes, and temperatures at or above the local average will all prevail for the next week or so. No rain is in the forecast until at least next Sunday, so the remainder of October will be dry.

Today - the final Sunday of the month - a high pressure center is settling across the eastern U.S. That feature, with its very dry air and light winds, will allow temperatures to drop into the mid-30s by dawn Monday. The result could be scattered frost in some localities despite local thermometers registering above the freezing mark. This graphic explains why that can happen:

After tomorrow the morning lows will climb back into the 40s and low 50s. Afternoon highs today will be near the 70º mark, and much of the upcoming work week will feature daily maxima in the low to mid-70s. High pressure will remain in control for the time being. However, the upper air pattern will begin to change late next weekend. Hopefully that will bring some much-needed rain to the region.

A gorgeous weekend ahead, with no rain expected through the end of the month

The extraordinary autumn conditions across Mecklenburg County look to continue for another week. Today - Friday - throughout the weekend the weather will be glorious for fall festivals and other outdoor activities. Local thermometers will climb to daily highs in the mid- to upper 60s after registering morning lows at or just below the 40º mark each day.

A sprawling high pressure system will build in across the eastern U.S. behind a weak cold front passage today. That system will swap winds around out of the northeast, resulting in some low level clouds tonight into Saturday as moisture is pulled in from off the Atlantic. But for the most part sunshine will prevail as precipitation chances remain near zero through the upcoming work week:

Meanwhile, daylight hours are dwindling as autumn progresses. Did you know that there are official definitions for several terms that folks tend to use interchangeably? Terms like "twilight", "dawn", and "dusk" all have their own specific meanings. These are also divided into categories, with "civil", "nautical", and "astronomical" each referring to different sun positions. Check out the details at this link.

Happy Friday!

What's the forecast? How about more "Chamber of Commerce" weather?

The weather forecast isn't changing much over the next week or so. A few tweaks to temperatures and wind amounts will be in order, but that's about it! Sunny skies, seasonable temperatures, and dry conditions look to last through the upcoming weekend.

The reason? A strong autumn high pressure system is anchored across eastern North America, maintaining quiet weather across Mecklenburg County. The nor'easter which spun up over the previous cold front is keeping its distance out to sea:

Thus today - Wednesday - and tomorrow both look much the same weatherwise. Sunshine, a northerly breeze, and temperatures topping out in the upper 60s will do it for the forecast both days. 

Friday will bring a slight change in that a dry cold will drop south through the region, lowering temperatures several degrees for morning lows and afternoon highs. Other than that, expect steady-state conditions into next week. In fact, several long range models keep the area dry through the end of October. That's great news for outdoor activities, but not so good for the persistent drought conditions.