Looking ahead to a wetter pattern on this Earth Day

On this Earth Day temperatures will boost into the 80s for afternoon highs. After a couple of chilly days breezes have turned around out of the south today, a direction which typically ushers in warmth and moisture. The warmth is returning but moisture is still lacking, prompting NWS Wakefield to remind folks of the persistent fire danger. 

There may be a brief shower and even a rumble of thunder late this afternoon, but rainfall totals will be scanty. Any remnant clouds will clear away tonight as temperatures drop only into the mid-50s. Thursday then looks to be clear, warm, and less windy, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid-80s.

The upcoming weekend heralds a pattern change, with rainfall becoming more likely across drought-stricken Virginia. This graphic shows the potential liquid totals expected through next Wednesday, with Mecklenburg County at the white star:

This doesn't indicate an overwhelming amount of rain, but it's a start!
 

From heat to frost?!

Too hot last week, and frost possible tomorrow morning...it must be April!!

After morning temperatures in the mid- and upper 30s today (Monday) will see temperatures climb only into the mid-60s, several degrees below average for Mecklenburg County. Sunny skies will turn somewhat cloudier by the lunch hour as a reinforcing cold front pushes through. Winds will again gust up to 25 mph out of the northwest this afternoon behind that boundary.

Those winds will calm after sunset, and under clearing skies temperatures look to plunge to the freezing mark by dawn Tuesday, prompting NWS Wakefield to issue a Freeze Warning. Even sites where temperatures don't drop all the way to 32º can experience frost. This graphic explains how ground temperatures can be even cooler than official readings:

Sensitive vegetation could be endangered tonight.

After that chilly start Tuesday afternoon looks to warm into the upper 60s under sunny skies and with light winds as high pressure moves overhead. By Tuesday night that high pressure center will slide off the coast, turning winds around out of the south.. As a result of that warmer wind direction Wednesday morning won't be quite as cold, with local thermometers dropping only to near the 50º mark.

Continue to be mindful of the very dry conditions. A statewide burn ban prohibits open burning before 4:00 p.m. daily because of the dangers of rapidly spreading fires.  

Cooler air is entering the neighborhood

As this is written Sunday morning a strong cold front is passing through Mecklenburg County, with South Hill still awaiting the boundary as of 7:45 a.m. Winds have already swapped around out of the northwest in Chase City, gusting up to 30 mph. That gustiness will prevail most of today as the cooler air rushes in behind the cold front. Temperatures, which were in the mid-60s overnight, will sag into the upper 50s as today progresses. 

Thus the April heat wave has been broken. In fact, the next couple of days and nights will feel positively chilly. Monday will begin with temperatures near 40º and wind up with an afternoon high only in the mid-60s. And folks should be mindful of the potential for a frost(!) Tuesday morning, with temperatures dropping near the freezing mark by dawn. This NOAA Weather Prediction Center graphic illustrates:

The latter half of the work week will feature a warming trend, but it won't be anything like last week's 90s. The low to mid-80s and plentiful sunshine will be warmer than late April averages, but not oppressively so. The only discordant note in the forecast is a decided lack of rain. After today's scanty amounts the next chance of substantial precipitation doesn't look likely until next Sunday. 

A brief relief Friday, one more hot day Saturday, then a major cooldown Sunday

As this is being written weather radar indicates showers across Mecklenburg County, sparked by a dissipating cold front. However, given the very dry air parked over the area the rain is evaporating before it reaches the ground. Thus today - Friday - will be dry with clouds clearing away as the day progresses. 

The good news is that (very) slightly cooler air will move in behind the weakening boundary. Northwesterly breezes will kick in, and this afternoon's temperatures will "only" reach the mid- and upper 80s. Skies will remain clear overnight, with local thermometer readings registering the upper 50s by dawn Saturday.

Saturday's highs then look to once again breach the 90º mark. Southwest winds will bring in more warm air ahead of a vigorous cold front crossing the Appalachians. Skies will be mostly sunny all day, with clouds moving in after sunset. That next cold front will reach the local area near breakfast time Sunday morning, ushering in a few showers.

Clouds and light rain will be around most of Sunday, but liquid amounts will be scanty. Local rain gauges will collect barely a tenth of an inch. The bigger story will be a drastic drop in temperatures. Sunday's official high in the mid-70s will occur just after midnight Saturday, and temperatures will slowly fall all day Sunday. Look for afternoon thermometer readings in the mid-60s, accompanied by gusty northwest winds.

Next week will thus begin much cooler than this week. This longer term look at both temperatures and rainfall potential indicates some relief from both the heat and the dryness for the end of April:

Summer-like heat continues, but spring conditions return Sunday

Following this - Wednesday - morning's low temperatures near 60º many Mecklenburg County sites will see afternoon highs top out in the low 90s. Thankfully, this early season heat wave is accompanied by relatively low dew points in the 50s. That's keeping the humidity at more bearable levels than sticky summertime values in the 60s and 70s.

However, the heat still poses risks for folks. This graphic provides some reminders of actions to take which will mitigate those risks:

Thursday morning looks to begin with temperatures in the mid-60s, a bit warmer than this morning's readings. Afternoon highs will once again reach the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Tomorrow night a dissipating cold front will cross the Appalachians, reaching Mecklenburg locales Friday morning. The last day of the work week will be slightly cooler after that boundary creeps through, with local thermometers likely to top out "only" in the upper 80s.

Saturday will again be hot under sunny skies, but then a more robust cold front will push through Sunday. That will break the heat wave and send us back to springtime temperatures to begin next week.

A mid-April heat wave takes hold

The definition of a heat wave is two or more days of well-above average temperatures. Starting today - Monday - that description will fit Mecklenburg County locales. With a warm front having pushed north of the area temperatures will climb from this morning's low 60s into the mid-80s for afternoon highs. That's a good 15 degrees above mid-April averages.

Gusty southwest winds will also be in vogue today, ushering warmer and moister air into the area. More clouds will be evident today than yesterday, but skies look to remain at least partly sunny. The breezes will calm down by sunset at 7:47 p.m. in Clarksville.

After warm morning temperatures again in the low 60s, Tuesday afternoon will have a good chance of breaching the 90º mark. Sunny skies and southwest winds (although not as gusty as today) will make tomorrow feel more like July than April. That trend will continue the rest of this week, with this Weather Prediction Center graphic indicating "hazardous heat" across Virginia's Piedmont by Thursday:

The heat is on!

No rain, but plenty of heat is on the way this week

In mid-April the average temperatures in Mecklenburg County range from morning lows in the mid-40s to afternoon highs in the low 70s. Those values will seem like a distant memory as this week progresses. A persistent upper level ridge has established itself across the eastern U.S., allowing much warmer than normal air to bulge northward.

Today - Sunday - looks to be the coolest (least hot?) day of this week, with afternoon highs topping out around 80º after this morning's lows near 50º. A weak cold front which oozed through the area late Saturday afternoon has stopped its southward movement across North Carolina. Skies will be mostly sunny today, accompanied by light southerly winds.

Monday and Tuesday will see afternoon temperatures climb into the mid- and upper 80s, while daily highs the rest of the work week will soar into the 90s. Morning lows will only dip into the 60s as an early taste of summer weather takes charge. Hot and humid will be the order of the day for the latter half of the week.

Unfortunately that humidity won't lead to much-needed rain locally anytime soon. Here are the forecast rainfall totals across the lower 48 states through next Sunday morning:

Note two things on this graphic. First, little or no rain is predicted for Virginia. Second, the precipitation plume (black arrow) on the other side of the Appalachian Mountains indicates the western edge of the aforementioned upper level ridge. Storm systems are steered by those upper air winds, keeping the precipitation away from the local area.

Unfortunately this pattern doesn't look like it'll change anytime soon. A dry spring looms ahead.