Got storms? Heat? How about both?

Mecklenburg's recent relatively cool and quiet weather has faded into the haze of summer weather. One indication of that is the dew point reading, the true measure of humidity. Check out these Wednesday morning values (blue numbers):

Dew points in the 70s are a harbinger of both "air you can wear" and the potential for showers and storms. Both factors are in today's forecast.

A high pressure center has moved off the East Coast, and the return flow around it is producing southwesterly winds (note the arrows in the graphic above). Those winds will gust up to 20 mph today as they pump in more moisture from the Gulf region. In addition, a few showers are crossing the Virginia Piedmont and have reached Mecklenburg County as this post is being written. 

The morning rain will dampen the ground, with another round of showers and possible storms on the way this afternoon and evening. Liquid totals in local rain gauges won't be much, perhaps a tenth of an inch or so by midnight. This afternoon temperatures will top out in the mid-80s under mostly cloudy skies. The heat index ("feels like" temperatures) will be a few degrees higher than that.

Thursday then looks to be hot and sticky under sunny skies. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s, and heat indices will climb into the triple digits. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Virginia under a Slight Risk - level 2 out of 5 - for severe weather tomorrow. Storm chances are relatively low, but any that do form will be in the late afternoon into the evening hours. 

It's time to practice those heat safety tips, and to have multiple ways of receiving weather warnings (weather radio, local TV/radio, smartphone apps, etc) in case severe storms arrive. 

Enjoy the "cool" break early this week

A backdoor cold front pushed south and west through Virginia overnight, swapping winds around out of the east. Coastal areas will be much cooler than inland sites like Mecklenburg County both Monday (today) and Tuesday. Locally, forecast highs in the upper 80s this afternoon look reasonable, especially given clear skies with plentiful June sunshine. 

However, as that cool air from off the Atlantic works its way further inland, Tuesday may not get that warm. Hints from a couple of forecast models which tend to have a better handle on these cold air damming events indicate that tomorrow afternoon's highs may be closer to 80º rather than the upper 80s. Skies will be a bit cloudier Tuesday as well.

There will be a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms as the week progresses, especially given a steady increase in heat and humidity. Meanwhile, here's a look at the rainfall departures from normal for the month of May (Mecklenburg County is circled in black):

This certainly didn't help the drought situation locally! 

Per the NWS Wakefield spring weather discussion, average temperatures for the period March thru May wound up well above normal thanks to very warm conditions in March and April. This was despite May being right around average. 

After a slight cooldown for the first part of the week the heat returns with a vengeance

Yesterday's and today's (Sunday's) afternoon highs in the low 90s are just a foretaste of what's on the near horizon. Before that, however, a brief cooling trend is on the way.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of eastern Virginia - including Mecklenburg County - under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today. A cold front which helped fire up numerous severe storms across Maryland and Pennsylvania yesterday will sag southward as today progresses. The main threat is from damaging winds, but locally storms look to be few and far between. What little activity may occur isn't expected until near sunset.

Behind that boundary winds will shift around out of the east, a cooler wind direction. Monday afternoon's high temperature could even be a few degrees lower than the current forecast in the mid-80s. That largely depends on the amount of cloud cover, since the strong June sunshine coupled with the very dry ground can overpower cooling trends. Tuesday's temperatures will also top out in the 80s under mostly sunny skies.

Then the heat returns, with the mid- and even upper 90s on tap later this week. This hazards map from the National Weather Service shows the East Coast baking by next weekend:

It's summer!!

The 90s are back in town for the weekend

After another cool morning during which local thermometers dipped into the mid-50s, Mecklenburg County will see highs at or just above 90º return this Friday afternoon. Humidity levels will also be on the increase, so prepare for some of the first sticky days of the summer of 2026.

Both Saturday and Sunday look to reach that level of heat, with the latter weekend day also having the potential for afternoon thunderstorms thanks to an approaching cold front. On Sunday the area is under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather, which could mean damaging straight line winds from thunderstorm outflows. Unfortunately not much rain is expected over the next several days, adding to the drought concerns. 

Many will take advantage of this summer weather to enjoy outdoor activities. Keep in mind that it's always wise to keep an eye on the sky for changing conditions. Storms can build quickly, and even a run-of-the-mill summer thunderstorm produces lightning. That weather feature poses much more danger than many folks realize. 

This two panel graphic illustrates one commonly misunderstood feature of lightning: it can strike and injure people even when it's not raining at a location.

More information is available at this National Weather Service website. And remember, "When thunder roars, go indoors" means just that. Staying outdoors while thunder is audible is risky business.

Sunshine prevails for the midweek period

Local sites experienced a very chilly Tuesday night for June. Several stations recorded Wednesday morning lows in the upper 40s, but Clarksville won the "prize" with a 45º reading. High pressure centered overhead kept winds light to non-existent, combining with clear skies to allow yesterday's warmth to escape into space.

That cool air also fostered fog across the New River Valley and into West Virginia, thanks to Tuesday evening's storms which rumbled across those areas and dampened the ground. The fog is evident in this morning's visible satellite image:

Meanwhile, Mecklenburg County is seeing clear skies, with abundant sunshine expected all day. Given the dry air in place, temperatures will rebound from the 40s all the way into the low 80s this afternoon. A northerly breeze will keep the air stirred for a pleasant feeling to along with the warmth.

Tonight will also feature clear skies and light winds, but local thermometers will halt their nocturnal drop in the mid-50s. Thursday looks to also be sunny as that high pressure area continues to sprawl across the eastern half of the nation. Tomorrow's highs will climb into the upper 80s, but humidity values will remain comfortable.

As for the weekend, prepare for the 90s. They're on their way back!

Welcome to the start of the Atlantic hurricane season

In addition to today - Monday - being the first day of meteorological summer (see Sunday's blogpost) it also marks the official beginning of the Atlantic basin's hurricane season. Defined as the period June 1st through November 30th, this is the climatological time of year when tropical weather system development is most likely. Here is this year's seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):

Of course, these numbers are probabilities and aren't hard and fast or set in stone. Nor does this outlook have any bearing on whether (or how many) storms will affect land. Moreover, it only takes one storm to cause destruction from winds or flooding across a given area.

Meanwhile, a cold front will push through Mecklenburg County later this morning. Mostly sunny skies will prevail, but there could be a stray shower or two this afternoon. Temperatures will climb from this morning's lows near 60º to a daily high in the low 80s.

Local thermometer readings will sag into the mid- and upper 50s by dawn Tuesday. Tomorrow then looks to be sunny with a northeasterly breeze. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid-70s, a few degrees below the average for the beginning of June.

Benign weather conditions with a late week warmup

Following today's - Sunday's - brilliant blue skies and highs in the upper 70s the upcoming work week weather looks pretty calm. Another cold front will push south through the area Monday, bringing a very slight chance of some scattered showers. After that, a stretch of dry weather lies ahead for Mecklenburg County. 

Today marks both the end of May and the end of meteorological spring. This rather busy graphic illustrates the difference between meteorological and astronomical seasons, the latter which we've been taught with references to equinoxes and solstices:

Suffice it to say that the former is based upon the actual calendars we all use. June, July, and August comprise the hottest part of the year, thus those three months are labeled "summer" by the meteorological community.

As for temperatures, this week begins a bit cooler than average before warming back into the 90s by Friday. The heat shall return!