Monday showers and clear skies Tuesday

The weekend's "cold" front is still near enough to keep clouds and showers sticking around today (Monday). Another tenth to a quarter-inch of liquid is forecast to collect in Mecklenburg County rain gauges today, with a couple of localities possibly seeing more from scattered thunderstorms. An easterly breeze plus the overcast skies will keep temperatures in the low 80s this afternoon.

Tuesday will begin with clearing skies and a sunrise temperature in the mid-60s. Tomorrow looks like the bonus day of the work week with typical July afternoon highs in the upper 80s. Dew points will be lower than today, and thus the humidity levels will be more comfortable.

Meanwhile, the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake water level remains much lower than the past couple of summers. This graphic compares this year's levels (blue shade) with those of 2024 and 2025:

Upcoming weather conditions the rest of this work week won't boost these numbers, with dry weather and increasing heat on the way. Mecklenburg County could even see a return to triple digit temperatures later this week. Stay tuned!

More showers and cool conditions to begin the week, then the heat returns

A backdoor cold front slid south through Mecklenburg County Saturday and is now parked near the I-40 corridor in North Carolina. Overcast skies, showers, and a northerly breeze will keep today's - Sunday's - high temperatures down to the low 80s. The clouds will linger throughout tonight, with rain chances remaining likely. A few rumbles of thunder may roll through the area as well.

Monday will begin the work week with more clouds, showers, and storms. Tomorrow will be much cooler than the average 90º for mid-July, with afternoon highs topping out only in the mid- to upper 70s. Rain chances will begin to dwindle during the evening hours, and Tuesday then looks to be sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid-80s as a high pressure system takes charge.

During the latter half of the week summertime heat will build back into the region. Afternoon highs in the 90s will accompany the sunny skies fostered by that high pressure. This graphic shows the anticipated weather hazards for the late week across the country:

In addition to the hazardous heat shading, note the indication of severe weather on Friday for this area. That's pretty far ahead of time, which indicates a strong concern for a setup which could produce severe storms. We'll keep an eye on that as the week progresses.

A showery weekend lies ahead

This current stretch of daily chances of rain would seem to help with the ongoing drought conditions. Unfortunately the scattered showers and storms haven't provided enough liquid to make much of a dent in the situation. In addition to the latest Drought Monitor showing Mecklenburg (among other Virginia counties) under an Extreme Drought, this graphic also emphasizes the dryness as water levels continue to dwindle:

The showers and storms will continue marching across the state today - Friday - through the weekend. However, liquid totals will be spotty with perhaps a half-inch up to an inch collected in local rain gauges by Sunday evening.

After another warm and muggy start in the 70s, today's temperatures will climb into the low 90s ahead of more anticipated storminess. The Storm Prediction Center has the county under yet another Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather, with straight line damaging winds the main threat. Storms could arrive anytime after mid-afternoon, so be alert to changing weather conditions.

By dinnertime Saturday a weak cold front will push south of the area and help fire up more storminess. Tomorrow's afternoon highs will climb to near the 90º mark, with skies remaining at least partly sunny before the rain arrives late afternoon. Clouds and precipitation will then stick around tomorrow night through most of Sunday.

Between the clouds, some rain, and the slightly cooler air behind the boundary, Sunday's temperatures are likely to top out only in the low 80s. That's several degrees below mid-July averages, so enjoy the brief break in the heat. Next week looks to reintroduce the heat!

Sticky, warm, and showery conditions for midweek

July weather is typically hot and sticky, and this week is no exception. A good way to guess how sticky the air is (besides stepping outdoors!) is to check the morning low temperatures. When they don't drop below the 70º mark it's pretty obvious that day will be humid. That's the case today - Wednesday - and will be the same tomorrow.

As far as the showery part goes, Tuesday's random showers and storms mostly missed Mecklenburg County. That said, many localities saw some rain on Monday. Here's the 48 hour precipitation total beginning Monday morning with the four county sites labeled with blue initials:

A backdoor front has slipped south into North Carolina but is still nearby, thus resulting in more clouds than sun today. Temperatures this afternoon look to top out in the upper 80s, and more showers and storms are possible. A couple of storms may bring damaging winds along with downpours, so be alert for any weather warnings that might be issued.

Thursday will be a bit warmer with highs in the low 90s. Showers and storms will be less likely than today, but a couple of sites could see some rain. All in all this is a good example of early July weather. 

Typical hot, sticky, and stormy conditions to begin the first full week of July

The early July heat wave has subsided, but don't expect the outdoors to feel comfortable. The lower atmosphere is absolutely loaded with moisture, exemplified by this - Monday - morning's very sticky dew points across Mecklenburg County. Temperatures today and Tuesday will top out in the low to mid-90s after morning lows in the 70s.

Given plenty of sunshine, plus leftover outflow boundaries from weekend storms, this sticky air mass will lead to more showers and storms today and tomorrow. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch through midnight tonight. Showers and storms which do form will move at a snail's pace, given that the jet stream (the steering mechanism) is still well north into Canada. 

As a result of the potential for more storms, the Storm Prediction Center has the county under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather both Monday and Tuesday. (UPDATE: Monday has been upgraded to level 2 of 5.) The chief threat will be strong damaging straight line winds accompanied by the always concerning lightning threat. Forecast rain totals over the next 72 hours could help settle the dust from the ongoing dryness, but it'll take a lot more moisture than this to break the drought.

Keep eyes and ears open for any weather warnings (remember, a "warning" means it's actually occurring!) that may be issued. And be sure to take shelter inside a vehicle or a building if lightning is nearby. "When Thunder Roars, Head Indoors" is a good safety reminder.

A return to "normal" summer weather this week

Today - Sunday - the area is under yet another Heat Advisory from noon to 8:00 p.m. this evening:

Heat indices will again reach the triple digits while air temperatures around Mecklenburg County top out in the upper 90s. The good news? The excessive heat has just about played itself out as the "heat dome" across the Eastern U.S. is slowly breaking down.

Typical summer weather will be on tap for the upcoming work week. Afternoon highs look to be mostly in the low 90s, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. The main threats from any storms this week will be strong straight line winds, lightning, and some localized flooding during heavy downpours. A couple of "cold" fronts will push through the region this week, helping trigger those storms.

Meanwhile, welcome back to "normal" summer in Mecklenburg County!

A dangerously hot Fourth of July

Yes, it's Fourth of July weekend, and it's the 250th celebration of our nation's founding. BUT, the oppressive heat and humidity have risen into dangerous levels. Prudence and caution should both be watchwords the next few days. This isn't a typical summertime heat wave...it's much worse.

The National Weather Service has issued an Extreme Heat Warning which covers Mecklenburg County from 10 o'clock this (Friday) morning all the way through 8:00 p.m. Saturday evening.

This morning's thermometer readings in the mid- to upper 70s will soar above 100º this afternoon. Combined with dew points in the 70s, that will make it feel close to 110º later today. Temperatures tonight won't drop much - if any - below 80º, so there won't be much relief even without the sun's rays continuing to scorch the area.

Saturday - July 4th - conditions look much the same, but with the likely addition of strong to severe storms by mid-afternoon. Damaging straight line winds - and lightning! - will be the chief threat, which may drop temperatures but not the oppressive humidity. All these factors could make outdoor celebrations dangerous for people and pets, along with affecting fireworks displays (those which aren't cancelled):

Sunday will also have the chance for strong to severe storms, with high temperatures close to 100º yet again. At the moment there isn't a heat warning covering the latter weekend day, but that may change as the National Weather Service reviews the data.

So be careful this weekend, practice heat safety, and keep an eye on each other for symptoms of heat illness.