A bit of rain Saturday, but more is on the way

Saturday's rainfall didn't amount to a lot, but every little bit helped. The Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport near South Hill "won" the prize, with the rain gauge there registering 0.32". Lighter amounts were recorded at Chase City (0.17"), Boydton (0.24"), and Clarksville (0.16"). To emphasize how dry it has been check out this map of thirty day rainfall totals:

Much of the region - including Mecklenburg County - has seen less than 25% of normal rainfall over the past month. The good news is that more precipitation is on the way this last week of April.

Today - Sunday - skies will be mostly cloudy with temperatures only climbing into the upper 50s. Northerly winds gusting up to 20 mph will keep the outdoors feeling a bit raw, especially after dealing with the recent heat. The cloud cover will thin tonight, and Monday will dawn under mostly clear skies with local thermometers dipping to the mid-40s. Those readings will climb to near 70º during the afternoon hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature another chance of rain as another storm system tracks across the nation's mid-section. Thursday and Friday will both bring sunshine as high pressure takes control of the weather locally. Afternoon temperatures this week look to be in the low to mid-70s.

Summer-like and dry to begin the weekend, spring-like and wet to end it

The 80s are back in the forecast for this Friday afternoon under sunny skies and with light winds. There could be some scattered showers later this afternoon, but the atmosphere is dry enough in Mecklenburg County to cast doubt on those chances. However, a harbinger of change is slowly pushing southwest across the Eastern Shore in the form of a backdoor cold front. 

Saturday looks to begin clear and sunny, but clouds will approach late in the day as that backdoor cold front clashes with a "normal" cold front crossing the Appalachians from the west. Afternoon highs will reach the mid- and upper 80s again tomorrow, just ahead of showers and a few thunderstorms arriving near the five o'clock hour. No severe weather is expected, but lightning is always something to be wary of.

Sunday will then feature a temperature reversal back to spring conditions after that "normal" cold front pushes through. The latter weekend day will see morning thermometer readings in the low 50s, with afternoon highs only climbing to the mid-60s under cloudy skies. Showers are likely most of the day, along with northerly winds gusting up to 15 mph.

Despite dampening weekend outdoor plans this precipitation is good news given the latest Drought Monitor (left panel). This week's graphic shows Extreme Drought conditions (red shade) covering much of Mecklenburg County. Meanwhile the right panel is a forecast of rain totals through Monday morning:

Although more rain could be forthcoming during the middle of next week, it will require much more liquid to alleviate these dry conditions. Fingers crossed that the remainder of the spring season will be wetter. 

Looking ahead to a wetter pattern on this Earth Day

On this Earth Day temperatures will boost into the 80s for afternoon highs. After a couple of chilly days breezes have turned around out of the south today, a direction which typically ushers in warmth and moisture. The warmth is returning but moisture is still lacking, prompting NWS Wakefield to remind folks of the persistent fire danger. 

There may be a brief shower and even a rumble of thunder late this afternoon, but rainfall totals will be scanty. Any remnant clouds will clear away tonight as temperatures drop only into the mid-50s. Thursday then looks to be clear, warm, and less windy, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid-80s.

The upcoming weekend heralds a pattern change, with rainfall becoming more likely across drought-stricken Virginia. This graphic shows the potential liquid totals expected through next Wednesday, with Mecklenburg County at the white star:

This doesn't indicate an overwhelming amount of rain, but it's a start!
 

From heat to frost?!

Too hot last week, and frost possible tomorrow morning...it must be April!!

After morning temperatures in the mid- and upper 30s today (Monday) will see temperatures climb only into the mid-60s, several degrees below average for Mecklenburg County. Sunny skies will turn somewhat cloudier by the lunch hour as a reinforcing cold front pushes through. Winds will again gust up to 25 mph out of the northwest this afternoon behind that boundary.

Those winds will calm after sunset, and under clearing skies temperatures look to plunge to the freezing mark by dawn Tuesday, prompting NWS Wakefield to issue a Freeze Warning. Even sites where temperatures don't drop all the way to 32º can experience frost. This graphic explains how ground temperatures can be even cooler than official readings:

Sensitive vegetation could be endangered tonight.

After that chilly start Tuesday afternoon looks to warm into the upper 60s under sunny skies and with light winds as high pressure moves overhead. By Tuesday night that high pressure center will slide off the coast, turning winds around out of the south.. As a result of that warmer wind direction Wednesday morning won't be quite as cold, with local thermometers dropping only to near the 50º mark.

Continue to be mindful of the very dry conditions. A statewide burn ban prohibits open burning before 4:00 p.m. daily because of the dangers of rapidly spreading fires.  

Cooler air is entering the neighborhood

As this is written Sunday morning a strong cold front is passing through Mecklenburg County, with South Hill still awaiting the boundary as of 7:45 a.m. Winds have already swapped around out of the northwest in Chase City, gusting up to 30 mph. That gustiness will prevail most of today as the cooler air rushes in behind the cold front. Temperatures, which were in the mid-60s overnight, will sag into the upper 50s as today progresses. 

Thus the April heat wave has been broken. In fact, the next couple of days and nights will feel positively chilly. Monday will begin with temperatures near 40º and wind up with an afternoon high only in the mid-60s. And folks should be mindful of the potential for a frost(!) Tuesday morning, with temperatures dropping near the freezing mark by dawn. This NOAA Weather Prediction Center graphic illustrates:

The latter half of the work week will feature a warming trend, but it won't be anything like last week's 90s. The low to mid-80s and plentiful sunshine will be warmer than late April averages, but not oppressively so. The only discordant note in the forecast is a decided lack of rain. After today's scanty amounts the next chance of substantial precipitation doesn't look likely until next Sunday. 

A brief relief Friday, one more hot day Saturday, then a major cooldown Sunday

As this is being written weather radar indicates showers across Mecklenburg County, sparked by a dissipating cold front. However, given the very dry air parked over the area the rain is evaporating before it reaches the ground. Thus today - Friday - will be dry with clouds clearing away as the day progresses. 

The good news is that (very) slightly cooler air will move in behind the weakening boundary. Northwesterly breezes will kick in, and this afternoon's temperatures will "only" reach the mid- and upper 80s. Skies will remain clear overnight, with local thermometer readings registering the upper 50s by dawn Saturday.

Saturday's highs then look to once again breach the 90º mark. Southwest winds will bring in more warm air ahead of a vigorous cold front crossing the Appalachians. Skies will be mostly sunny all day, with clouds moving in after sunset. That next cold front will reach the local area near breakfast time Sunday morning, ushering in a few showers.

Clouds and light rain will be around most of Sunday, but liquid amounts will be scanty. Local rain gauges will collect barely a tenth of an inch. The bigger story will be a drastic drop in temperatures. Sunday's official high in the mid-70s will occur just after midnight Saturday, and temperatures will slowly fall all day Sunday. Look for afternoon thermometer readings in the mid-60s, accompanied by gusty northwest winds.

Next week will thus begin much cooler than this week. This longer term look at both temperatures and rainfall potential indicates some relief from both the heat and the dryness for the end of April:

Summer-like heat continues, but spring conditions return Sunday

Following this - Wednesday - morning's low temperatures near 60º many Mecklenburg County sites will see afternoon highs top out in the low 90s. Thankfully, this early season heat wave is accompanied by relatively low dew points in the 50s. That's keeping the humidity at more bearable levels than sticky summertime values in the 60s and 70s.

However, the heat still poses risks for folks. This graphic provides some reminders of actions to take which will mitigate those risks:

Thursday morning looks to begin with temperatures in the mid-60s, a bit warmer than this morning's readings. Afternoon highs will once again reach the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Tomorrow night a dissipating cold front will cross the Appalachians, reaching Mecklenburg locales Friday morning. The last day of the work week will be slightly cooler after that boundary creeps through, with local thermometers likely to top out "only" in the upper 80s.

Saturday will again be hot under sunny skies, but then a more robust cold front will push through Sunday. That will break the heat wave and send us back to springtime temperatures to begin next week.