Another round of storms late Monday into Tuesday

Dew points around Mecklenburg this Monday morning have risen into the low 70s, about ten degrees higher than Sunday's rather comfortable values. The "stickiness quotient" is thus much higher today, especially given forecast afternoon highs in the mid-90s. That moisture, plus a lee trough, plus a cold front slowly edging eastward from the Ohio Valley, has convinced the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe storms today.

Those storms will arrive later this afternoon, likely near the dinner hour. The chief threats will be damaging straight line winds and the always dangerous lightning. Keep at least two weather warning sources at hand, and if a warning is issued take shelter on the lowest floor and away from windows. And remember, "If Thunder Roars, Head Indoors". It doesn't pay to gamble with lightning!

Showers and storms look to continue into the late evening hours as that cold front slowly works its way across Virginia. Then, as a low pressure center develops nearby along the boundary, another round of convection will push through during mid-day Tuesday. Tomorrow will feature mostly cloudy skies until late afternoon, with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s. 

Rain totals won't be impressive from this system, but the hard and dry ground will make it difficult for the water to soak in. That could lead to some localized flooding during torrential downpours. Forecast precipitation totals from this latest system are shown in this graphic from NWS Wakefield:

It's not enough to break the drought, but at this stage any amount helps!

Summer solstice and thunderstorms

This Sunday morning the summer solstice arrived at 4:24 a.m. Since our planet's axis is tilted 23.5º from vertical, this causes the apparent motion of the sun to reach its northernmost point in its journey across Earth's skies on the solstice every June:

Sunrise this morning at the Kerr Lake dam was at 5:55 a.m., and sunset this evening will be at 8:35 p.m. Tomorrow, those times will begin their slow slide toward shorter days.

Meanwhile, today's weather will be very summerish. Under sunny skies temperatures will top out in the low 90s this afternoon, accompanied by fairly comfortable humidity. Tonight, a southerly breeze will usher in higher dew points, with Monday morning temperatures only dipping into the low 70s. 

Tomorrow will be more uncomfortable as local thermometers work their way into the mid- and upper 90s. Gusty southerly winds will pump in more humidity, and a cold front approaching from the west will bring chances of showers and storms during late afternoon into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has Mecklenburg County in a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe weather tomorrow, mainly in the form of strong to damaging straight line winds.

The remainder of the work week looks to be typical late June weather, with off and on chances of storms and afternoon highs around the 90º mark. 

Some midweek rain, but a sunny weekend!

Today's (Friday's) blogpost is a bit later than normal, but there's good weather news! First, Mecklenburg County sites received some welcome rain yesterday and this morning. Totals of 0.35", 0.60", 0.71", and 0.92" were recorded in rain gauges respectively in Chase City, Boydton, Clarksville, and South Hill. That's good news during this dry period.

The moisture from this morning's rain was provided by remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed near the Texas coast and fostered lots of flooding along the Gulf states. This was the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Another round of rain will arrive Monday, but this will be courtesy of a typical mid-latitude low pressure rather than a tropical system.

Meanwhile, both Saturday and Sunday look to feature glorious sunny weather. Tomorrow will begin with temperatures near 60º before afternoon highs climb to the mid-80s. Sunday will be a bit warmer, with local thermometers rising from the mid-60s and topping out in the low 90s. 

And in case folks were wondering, here's the list of 2026 tropical cyclone names for the Atlantic basin:

The return of heat, humidity, and storms

The brief respite from the heat ends today (Wednesday). A warm front has pushed north of the area, allowing a hotter air mass to push in via southwesterly winds. Skies will be sunny today as temperatures climb back into the low 90s this afternoon. Thankfully the dew points will remain in the comfortable range today, so the "stickiness quotient" won't be bad.

Those dew points will rise overnight, however, with Thursday then looking rather miserable. Tomorrow's afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 90s accompanied by stickier conditions. Additionally, the combination of a surface "cold" front crossing the mountains plus an upper level disturbance will tap into the energy available from this heat and humidity. The result will be strong to severe storms late Thursday afternoon into the evening. 

The Storm Prediction Center's outlook for tomorrow has all of Virginia under a level 2 out of 5 risk. The main threat will again be damaging straight line winds, heavy rain, and - of course - lightning. Keep in mind that not every locality could see storms, as illustrated here:

That said, it would be prudent to have more than one way of receiving weather warnings tomorrow in order to take shelter in time. Remember that when a National Weather Service issues a "Warning" it means severe weather is actually happening. Folks should immediately head indoors and stay away from windows and doors. 

Be safe, and be ready for the heat!

Cooler and less humid to begin the work week

Sunday's storms provided wind, thunder, and lightning across Mecklenburg County, but rain totals were scanty. Local gauges recorded less than a tenth of an inch, which will do nothing to alleviate the continued drought conditions. The good news is that the cold front which helped spark those storms scooted through the county during the wee hours of this (Monday) morning, opening the door for cooler and less humid conditions today.

This air mass out of Canada will continue to flow in via northerly and then westerly breezes. Today will thus feel somewhat refreshing, with dew points dropping into the comfortable 50s this afternoon under sunny skies.

Thermometers will top out in the mid-80s this afternoon, just about the average for the middle of June. Tonight could be a time to open up the windows as temperatures drop into the low 60s to go along with the lower humidity.

Tuesday's weather will be similarly comfortable, but cloudy skies will prevail. The aforementioned cold front has stalled out over the Carolinas, and a weak surface low pressure will form along it overnight. That will spread clouds across southern Virginia tomorrow, but no precipitation is expected locally.

Missing the 90s? They'll return midweek!

 

More potential storms Sunday, followed by an early week cooldown

After a brief break in the humidity Saturday, today - Sunday - will bring the stickiness back into Mecklenburg County. The "cold" front that pushed through early yesterday morning has crept back northward, allowing winds to swap around out of the south again. The result will be afternoon highs again in the mid-90s accompanied by heat indices which will approach the triple digit mark.

Meanwhile, a stronger cold front will cross the Appalachians tonight. That will create the potential for more severe weather. Although most county sites missed Friday's storms, it looks more likely that the local area will experience strong to severe stuff late this afternoon into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has the region under another Slight Risk (level 2 of 5), with damaging straight line winds and some hail possible:

Behind this next boundary a true Canadian airmass will replace the sticky stuff, bringing drier air and lower temperatures for Monday. Local thermometers thus look to top out in the low to mid-80s Monday and Tuesday. Sunshine will prevail tomorrow, but Tuesday will be cloudier with a chance of showers. That front will stall out across the Carolinas, and a low pressure center will form along a "wrinkle" in the boundary over the Outer Banks.

The heat then returns midweek, with the 90s coming back to town by Wednesday and possibly more storms Thursday and Friday. Hopefully some of this convection will bring a decent amount of rain along with it, but that could be wishful thinking.

A hot, sticky, and stormy weekend ahead

Nothing says summer-time like hot and sticky conditions leading to afternoon and evening storms. That's the outlook for this weekend around Mecklenburg County. Today (Friday) will be the hottest day, with local thermometers registering highs near 100º. Combined with uncomfortably high humidity the resulting heat index will make it feel more like 105º. Thus, NWS Wakefield has issued a Heat Advisory from 11:00 a.m. through 8:00 p.m. for today.

Today's storms will likely manifest as showers around the 5 o'clock hour, followed by more powerful stuff after sunset as a "cold" front presses across the Appalachians. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Virginia under a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe weather. The main threat will be damaging straight line winds as well as the always dangerous lightning. 

It's important to have more than one source of weather warnings in order to take protective action, especially since those storms could be raging after dark. In addition, remember that a "Watch" means conditions for severe weather are favorable, but a "Warning" means it's actually happening and in your area. This two-panel graphic illustrates both of those:

Despite the passage of that "cold" front temperatures will only sag into the low 70s Saturday morning. Tomorrow's skies look to be clear as drier air behind the boundary moves into the region. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s, but the stickiness will be less thanks to lower dew points.

Sunday's weather will remind folks of today's heat and humidity. Afternoon highs in the upper 90s, increased humidity, and a cold front crossing the Appalachians will result in another round of strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has the eastern third of Virginia under another Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on the final weekend day.

Practice heat and storm safety this weekend!