After the wedge breaks summer-like weather returns

Friday night's higher-than-expected rainfall totals led to a flash flood warning across the western half of Mecklenburg county Saturday morning. Local rain gauges registered well over 2 inches of rain in Clarksville and Chase City while South Hill collected less than a half-inch. The disparity was due to a small upper level disturbance which pushed northeast from Danville toward Richmond, triggering heavy rain along the U.S. Route 360 corridor.

As this is being written the latest version of a cold air damming wedge is slowly edging out of the area. Temperatures which topped out ten degrees below average on Saturday will climb closer to normal today (Sunday), reaching the low 70s as the wedge breaks down. Much of today will be cloudy with showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms, adding perhaps another quarter to a half-inch of precipitation across the county. By late afternoon the sun should peek through the clouds.

The work week ahead will begin cloudy and damp, with temperatures climbing back into the 80s Monday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue tomorrow and Tuesday, although the latter day will also feature some sunshine. No severe weather is expected early in the week, but the second half could see some rough weather as the action shown on this very busy graphic marches eastward.

Wednesday looks to be the calmest day around Mecklenburg county, with sunny skies and temperatures climbing to near the 90 degree mark.

A dry Friday and then a damp weekend

Today - the first Friday of May - will be the final episode of the latest dry stretch for Mecklenburg county. That's a good thing, since much of Southside Virginia is now classified as being "Abnormally Dry" on this week's Drought Monitor. Showers arriving tonight and hanging around off and on this weekend will put an end to the recent aridity (and wash the pollen out of the air as well!).

As this is being written a backdoor cold front has already reached northern Virginia and the Washington DC area. This boundary will continue south and west today, driven by high pressure centered atop New England. Ahead of this feature today looks to be partly to mostly sunny with afternoon highs again reaching the upper 80s. 

The front will cross Mecklenburg county near the dinner hour and will swap winds around out of the east. Rain will arrive after sunset this evening along with cooler air from off the Atlantic waters. Tonight will be cloudy with showers, and temperatures will drop to near the 60 degree mark by dawn Saturday.

Tomorrow then looks to be cloudy and damp, although the rain will be intermittent rather than steady. Afternoon thermometer readings will be much lower than today's, with highs on Saturday struggling to reach the low 70s. Sunday will continue to be gloomy along with more rain and possibly thunderstorms as temperatures top out in the mid- to upper 70s.

As shown on the right hand panel of the above graphic total rain amounts collected in county gauges this weekend will be between a half-inch and an inch of liquid. That's not enough to completely dispel the dry conditions, but it'll help!

Dry, warm, and sunny through the work week

Welcome to May! This month begins with average high and low temperatures of 76 and 51 degrees in Mecklenburg county. By May 31st those values climb to 82 and 61 degrees as summer approaches. The remainder of this work week looks to feature temperatures above those averages.

Today - Wednesday - began with temperatures in the low 60s under clear skies. As the strong May sun heats things up local thermometers will top out at or near 80 degrees this afternoon. Winds will be light out of the north behind a dissipating cold front which is sagging south into North Carolina.

Then, after sunset at 8:02 pm temperatures will drop overnight, approaching the dew point by dawn Thursday. That will likely result in foggy patches around the county by sunrise. Any fog will mix out quickly in the early morning sunshine. Tomorrow's thermometer readings will start out in the upper 50s before climbing into the upper 80s during the afternoon hours. Friday also looks dry and very warm, with the weekend now beginning to look wet and cooler.

Speaking of the approach of summer, the National Weather Service has developed a Heat Risk product. The left panel of this graphic shows the descriptions of the individual levels, while the right panel shows the forecast for Thursday (zoomed in on Virginia).

I realize that saying it'll be hot during the summer is somewhat like saying water is wet. However, heat does create health risks and is annually the number one weather condition causing deaths across the country. This product will help alert folks to upcoming dangers from the heat.

The heat is on!

The very end of April will wind up much warmer than averages would suggest. Today's - Monday's - high temperature will be in the mid-80s under sunny skies, about ten degrees warmer than average. That will hold true for the rest of the week as May begins.

The southwesterly winds ushering in this heat are also pumping in moist air from the Gulf of Mexico source region. Thus humidity has also increased, with this morning's dew points in the low 60s creating that sticky feeling. This graphic is a reminder of the effect of the dew point on comfortability:

Another result of the calendar progressing toward summer is later sunsets. Yesterday was the first day that Sol (our sun's official name) dipped below the horizon at 8:00 p.m., meaning today is the first day of the year with a post 8 o'clock sunset.

Tuesday looks much the same as today both temperature and humidity-wise. However, afternoon skies will feature increasing cloudiness thanks to a weak cold front approaching the area. An upper level disturbance will then produce some scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning.

The air mass behind this boundary isn't any cooler but it will be a bit drier. The rest of the week will still be much warmer than average, but the humidity will back off somewhat.

End of April = beginning of summer-like conditions

March and most of April has been stuck under a cooler-than-average weather pattern, so Mecklenburg county folks awaiting the warm season have had to be patient. Well, as of today (Sunday) that patience is no longer needed. The warmth has arrived!

Temperatures around the county began this morning in the mid- and upper 50s. Dew points weren't far behind, evidence that humidity levels are also on the rise. High pressure parked off the Southeast coast is pumping warm moist air into the area via southwesterly breezes. The result will be afternoon highs in the 80s not only today, but throughout the upcoming work week.

Typically this warmer pattern also results in more showers and thunderstorms this time of year. However, that won't be the case much of this week. Except for some scattered precipitation midweek the skies look clear for quite a ways ahead. That's not necessarily a good thing since the area is becoming very dry as illustrated in the latest Drought Monitor (Mecklenburg county is at the black star):

Meanwhile it may be time to pull out the shorts and flip-flops and begin the household discussions about whether/when to turn on the air conditioners. Hot and humid weather is on the doorstep!

Ready for the 80s?

Much warmer conditions are on the way for Mecklenburg county, but to kick off the weekend a weak cold air damming wedge is settling in. High pressure centered over New England is once again pushing cool air into the region from off the Atlantic via easterly winds. This Friday morning temperatures started the day in the mid-40s, and those readings will top out in the mid- to upper 60s under mostly sunny skies.

Tonight will feature more clouds, with Saturday morning temperatures once again in the mid-40s. Overcast skies will stick around much of tomorrow but the winds will swing around out of the southeast, a warmer direction. Despite the clouds tomorrow afternoon local thermometers will climb to the 70 degree mark. 

On Sunday the recent cooler than average weather pattern will swap into a summer-like pattern. A "Bermuda High" will develop off the southeastern U.S. coast:

Temperatures will soar into the 80s under mostly sunny skies for the latter weekend day, with the heat sticking around most of next week.

So after a cool start to the weekend pull those shorts and flip-flops out and get ready for an early taste of summer!

Another brief cooldown ahead

This Wednesday morning another cold front is crossing the Appalachian mountains into Virginia. Ahead of it a few showers have broken out which could dampen the ground in parts of Mecklenburg county. That boundary will slow down its eastward progress today, finally passing through the area by about dinnertime.

The overall result locally will be cloudy skies for the first half of today, accompanied by light rain which will total less than a tenth of an inch in area gauges. Skies look to begin clearing during the late afternoon with temperatures eventually climbing into the low 70s. After this boundary passes by winds will swap around out of the west.

Tonight a second - but dry - cold front will scour out any remaining moisture. Behind it the winds will turn around out of the north and usher cooler Canadian air into Mecklenburg county. By dawn Thursday local thermometers will register lows in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Tomorrow will then be mostly sunny with northerly breezes and afternoon highs in the mid-60s, somewhat below late April averages.

Wednesday's light rainfall is the only precipitation expected for several days. As shown on this graphic the liquid totals for Mecklenburg county (at the black star) will be scanty through the middle of next week:

Keep fingers crossed that the current lack of rain won't lead to widespread drought this spring into the summer. Eastern North Carolina is already under abnormally dry conditions per the Drought Monitor.