Enjoy the "cool" break early this week

A backdoor cold front pushed south and west through Virginia overnight, swapping winds around out of the east. Coastal areas will be much cooler than inland sites like Mecklenburg County both Monday (today) and Tuesday. Locally, forecast highs in the upper 80s this afternoon look reasonable, especially given clear skies with plentiful June sunshine. 

However, as that cool air from off the Atlantic works its way further inland, Tuesday may not get that warm. Hints from a couple of forecast models which tend to have a better handle on these cold air damming events indicate that tomorrow afternoon's highs may be closer to 80º rather than the upper 80s. Skies will be a bit cloudier Tuesday as well.

There will be a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms as the week progresses, especially given a steady increase in heat and humidity. Meanwhile, here's a look at the rainfall departures from normal for the month of May (Mecklenburg County is circled in black):

This certainly didn't help the drought situation locally! 

Per the NWS Wakefield spring weather discussion, average temperatures for the period March thru May wound up well above normal thanks to very warm conditions in March and April. This was despite May being right around average. 

After a slight cooldown for the first part of the week the heat returns with a vengeance

Yesterday's and today's (Sunday's) afternoon highs in the low 90s are just a foretaste of what's on the near horizon. Before that, however, a brief cooling trend is on the way.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of eastern Virginia - including Mecklenburg County - under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today. A cold front which helped fire up numerous severe storms across Maryland and Pennsylvania yesterday will sag southward as today progresses. The main threat is from damaging winds, but locally storms look to be few and far between. What little activity may occur isn't expected until near sunset.

Behind that boundary winds will shift around out of the east, a cooler wind direction. Monday afternoon's high temperature could even be a few degrees lower than the current forecast in the mid-80s. That largely depends on the amount of cloud cover, since the strong June sunshine coupled with the very dry ground can overpower cooling trends. Tuesday's temperatures will also top out in the 80s under mostly sunny skies.

Then the heat returns, with the mid- and even upper 90s on tap later this week. This hazards map from the National Weather Service shows the East Coast baking by next weekend:

It's summer!!

The 90s are back in town for the weekend

After another cool morning during which local thermometers dipped into the mid-50s, Mecklenburg County will see highs at or just above 90º return this Friday afternoon. Humidity levels will also be on the increase, so prepare for some of the first sticky days of the summer of 2026.

Both Saturday and Sunday look to reach that level of heat, with the latter weekend day also having the potential for afternoon thunderstorms thanks to an approaching cold front. On Sunday the area is under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather, which could mean damaging straight line winds from thunderstorm outflows. Unfortunately not much rain is expected over the next several days, adding to the drought concerns. 

Many will take advantage of this summer weather to enjoy outdoor activities. Keep in mind that it's always wise to keep an eye on the sky for changing conditions. Storms can build quickly, and even a run-of-the-mill summer thunderstorm produces lightning. That weather feature poses much more danger than many folks realize. 

This two panel graphic illustrates one commonly misunderstood feature of lightning: it can strike and injure people even when it's not raining at a location.

More information is available at this National Weather Service website. And remember, "When thunder roars, go indoors" means just that. Staying outdoors while thunder is audible is risky business.

Sunshine prevails for the midweek period

Local sites experienced a very chilly Tuesday night for June. Several stations recorded Wednesday morning lows in the upper 40s, but Clarksville won the "prize" with a 45º reading. High pressure centered overhead kept winds light to non-existent, combining with clear skies to allow yesterday's warmth to escape into space.

That cool air also fostered fog across the New River Valley and into West Virginia, thanks to Tuesday evening's storms which rumbled across those areas and dampened the ground. The fog is evident in this morning's visible satellite image:

Meanwhile, Mecklenburg County is seeing clear skies, with abundant sunshine expected all day. Given the dry air in place, temperatures will rebound from the 40s all the way into the low 80s this afternoon. A northerly breeze will keep the air stirred for a pleasant feeling to along with the warmth.

Tonight will also feature clear skies and light winds, but local thermometers will halt their nocturnal drop in the mid-50s. Thursday looks to also be sunny as that high pressure area continues to sprawl across the eastern half of the nation. Tomorrow's highs will climb into the upper 80s, but humidity values will remain comfortable.

As for the weekend, prepare for the 90s. They're on their way back!

Welcome to the start of the Atlantic hurricane season

In addition to today - Monday - being the first day of meteorological summer (see Sunday's blogpost) it also marks the official beginning of the Atlantic basin's hurricane season. Defined as the period June 1st through November 30th, this is the climatological time of year when tropical weather system development is most likely. Here is this year's seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):

Of course, these numbers are probabilities and aren't hard and fast or set in stone. Nor does this outlook have any bearing on whether (or how many) storms will affect land. Moreover, it only takes one storm to cause destruction from winds or flooding across a given area.

Meanwhile, a cold front will push through Mecklenburg County later this morning. Mostly sunny skies will prevail, but there could be a stray shower or two this afternoon. Temperatures will climb from this morning's lows near 60º to a daily high in the low 80s.

Local thermometer readings will sag into the mid- and upper 50s by dawn Tuesday. Tomorrow then looks to be sunny with a northeasterly breeze. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid-70s, a few degrees below the average for the beginning of June.

Benign weather conditions with a late week warmup

Following today's - Sunday's - brilliant blue skies and highs in the upper 70s the upcoming work week weather looks pretty calm. Another cold front will push south through the area Monday, bringing a very slight chance of some scattered showers. After that, a stretch of dry weather lies ahead for Mecklenburg County. 

Today marks both the end of May and the end of meteorological spring. This rather busy graphic illustrates the difference between meteorological and astronomical seasons, the latter which we've been taught with references to equinoxes and solstices:

Suffice it to say that the former is based upon the actual calendars we all use. June, July, and August comprise the hottest part of the year, thus those three months are labeled "summer" by the meteorological community.

As for temperatures, this week begins a bit cooler than average before warming back into the 90s by Friday. The heat shall return!

Sunny, dry, and pleasant for the last weekend of May

The persistent pattern which brought a multi-day episode of clouds and much-needed rain has moved on, with the result being a pleasant weather forecast for the last weekend of May. This Friday morning began with temperatures in the upper 50s and will feature afternoon highs in the low 80s under sunny skies. Those readings are pretty much spot on for late May averages in Mecklenburg County.

Saturday will look much the same but with a few more clouds as yet another cold front dives south across the region. Following afternoon high temperatures in the low 80s, cooler air behind this next boundary will drop tomorrow night's local thermometer readings to near the 50º mark. Sunday will thus begin a bit chilly before warming into the upper 70s under sunny skies.

This new weather pattern will also stick around a while, dropping cold fronts south from the Great Lakes region which will continue to usher in cool dry air. This is known as an "Omega Block", with upper air currents resembling that Greek letter's shape:

The upside to this pattern is continued pleasant weather conditions. The downside is that, despite a mention of "damp" conditions across the Eastern U.S. per the graphic, rainfall needed to continue alleviating the local drought conditions will be scarce for a while.