Welcome to the start of the Atlantic hurricane season

In addition to today - Monday - being the first day of meteorological summer (see Sunday's blogpost) it also marks the official beginning of the Atlantic basin's hurricane season. Defined as the period June 1st through November 30th, this is the climatological time of year when tropical weather system development is most likely. Here is this year's seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):

Of course, these numbers are probabilities and aren't hard and fast or set in stone. Nor does this outlook have any bearing on whether (or how many) storms will affect land. Moreover, it only takes one storm to cause destruction from winds or flooding across a given area.

Meanwhile, a cold front will push through Mecklenburg County later this morning. Mostly sunny skies will prevail, but there could be a stray shower or two this afternoon. Temperatures will climb from this morning's lows near 60º to a daily high in the low 80s.

Local thermometer readings will sag into the mid- and upper 50s by dawn Tuesday. Tomorrow then looks to be sunny with a northeasterly breeze. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid-70s, a few degrees below the average for the beginning of June.

Benign weather conditions with a late week warmup

Following today's - Sunday's - brilliant blue skies and highs in the upper 70s the upcoming work week weather looks pretty calm. Another cold front will push south through the area Monday, bringing a very slight chance of some scattered showers. After that, a stretch of dry weather lies ahead for Mecklenburg County. 

Today marks both the end of May and the end of meteorological spring. This rather busy graphic illustrates the difference between meteorological and astronomical seasons, the latter which we've been taught with references to equinoxes and solstices:

Suffice it to say that the former is based upon the actual calendars we all use. June, July, and August comprise the hottest part of the year, thus those three months are labeled "summer" by the meteorological community.

As for temperatures, this week begins a bit cooler than average before warming back into the 90s by Friday. The heat shall return!

Sunny, dry, and pleasant for the last weekend of May

The persistent pattern which brought a multi-day episode of clouds and much-needed rain has moved on, with the result being a pleasant weather forecast for the last weekend of May. This Friday morning began with temperatures in the upper 50s and will feature afternoon highs in the low 80s under sunny skies. Those readings are pretty much spot on for late May averages in Mecklenburg County.

Saturday will look much the same but with a few more clouds as yet another cold front dives south across the region. Following afternoon high temperatures in the low 80s, cooler air behind this next boundary will drop tomorrow night's local thermometer readings to near the 50º mark. Sunday will thus begin a bit chilly before warming into the upper 70s under sunny skies.

This new weather pattern will also stick around a while, dropping cold fronts south from the Great Lakes region which will continue to usher in cool dry air. This is known as an "Omega Block", with upper air currents resembling that Greek letter's shape:

The upside to this pattern is continued pleasant weather conditions. The downside is that, despite a mention of "damp" conditions across the Eastern U.S. per the graphic, rainfall needed to continue alleviating the local drought conditions will be scarce for a while.

One last hurrah for clouds and rain, then cooler and drier conditions arrive

Today - Wednesday - will be the final day of this late May extended stretch of clouds and rain. The latter has been very welcome given the drought situation, and more precipitation over the next few weeks would be helpful. However, one factor which may not be as welcome is the humidity. Dew points in the 70s bring a very uncomfortable feeling to the air:

Today's high temperature in the mid-80s doesn't sound bad until the stickiness is factored in. A stationary front which has bobbled north and south across Virginia since last week is hung up near the DC area this morning. That boundary will dip southward later today ahead of a vigorous cold front diving down from the Great Lakes region. 

The overall result will be more showers and storms, with most of that activity reaching Mecklenburg County near or after the dinner hour. The Storm Prediction Center has the local area under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today, so stay attuned to weather sources and heed any warnings which are issued.

Cooler and drier air will move in behind that cold front via northerly breezes. Thursday looks to be sunny with afternoon highs again in the mid-80s...but without the sticky humidity. There may be a stray shower or storm tomorrow, but those will be few and far between. By dawn Friday temperatures will drop back into the upper 50s ahead of what looks like some very nice weekend weather.

A quick Memorial Day look at the weather

 Those low clouds will stick around today - Monday - through much of Tuesday, with another inch or more of liquid collecting in local rain gauges by tomorrow evening. Temperatures are edging back up toward late May averages, with afternoon highs both days peaking near the 80º mark. Thunder rumbles could occur either day, but nothing severe is expected.

Meanwhile, today is Memorial Day, a time to reflect and remember those who have died during service to our nation. At 3:00 p.m. local time there will be a National Moment of Remembrance, a minute of silence. Even though today's weather conditions may hinder planned outdoor activities, take time to remember and honor the fallen.

The warmup commences, but the clouds and rain stick around for a while

As mentioned in Friday's blogpost temperatures in the midst of a cold air damming (CAD) event - like the current one across the Piedmont - can be tricky to forecast. Saturday's highs in the upper 50s to near 60º around Mecklenburg County were a good ten degrees lower than anticipated. Today - Sunday - that CAD setup looks to finally start breaking down.

The high pressure center over New England which was reinforcing the cool northerly wind flow is moving off the coast this morning. That will swing this morning's winds around out of the south later today, allowing temperatures to climb back toward late May averages. This afternoon's high temperature will top out in the mid-70s despite persistent cloud cover, although sunshine may peek through a few times before sunset at 8:22 p.m. in Clarksville.

Despite unfortunate timing which has marred Memorial Day weekend plans, the rainfall has been very beneficial. The left panel below shows recent rain gauge totals while the right panel is a forecast of additional precipitation through this coming Friday morning:

Daylight hours today will be mostly dry, but more showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will arrive after dark. 

Sunshine will continue to be scarce through midweek as another cold front approaches and stalls out across Virginia. The next day with "partly sunny" in the forecast is Thursday. However, temperatures look to be more reasonable for this time of year with afternoon highs again climbing above the 80º mark.

Sweatshirts to shorts and back again: May 2026

The weather the first couple weeks of this month seemed like it would never warm to spring-like levels. Then the 90s showed up as an uninvited guest last week, bringing shorts and t-shirt conditions. Now, thanks to Thursday's backdoor cold front and the resulting cold air damming (CAD) wedge it's back to sweatshirts for a couple of days. That's May 2026 weather in a nutshell.

Temperatures dropped like a rock as that boundary pushed south across Mecklenburg County late Thursday afternoon, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Rain totals across the area ranged from 1.92" in Clarksville and 2.26" in Chase City to a somewhat miserly 0.30" for South Hill. Any and all precipitation is welcome, however, given the increasingly concerning drought conditions.

Today (Friday), local thermometer readings look to top out only in the low to mid-60s under cloudy skies. The cloud cover will stick around throughout the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, with showers and storms possible each day. Here's the NWS Wakefield outlook for rain totals through 8:00 pm Sunday:

Monday, Memorial Day, will also feature chances of rain as yet another slow-moving cold front crosses the Appalachians.

Afternoon high temperature forecasts for this weekend could be a bit tricky, as these CAD events can be stubborn to dislodge. Saturday will also be cool, with afternoon highs likely only touching the 70º mark. Sunday's forecast high is in the low 80s, but the actual afternoon maximum may be a few degrees lower than that. By Monday the low 80s are more likely.