Dry air + gusty winds = wildfire potential Monday

A cold front crossed Mecklenburg County a bit after 7 o'clock this Monday morning. A few showers are straggling along behind it, but most of that activity will dissipate before it reaches local weather stations. The boundary will usher in much drier air via gusty westerly and northwesterly winds today. That has led to an elevated (Level 1) Fire Weather outlook for today as shown here:

The NWS Wakefield office has issued a Special Weather Statement concerning these conditions. Be mindful of any and all possible sources of fire starters today.

Temperatures this afternoon will reach the low 70s before tumbling into the mid-30s overnight as the cooler air invades. Tuesday looks to be noticeably chillier than today, with local thermometers registering highs only in the mid-50s. Very dry dew points in the 20s and northeasterly breezes will make tomorrow feel even cooler, especially given the 80s achieved just yesterday(!).

After another chilly morning Wednesday temperatures will begin to rebound. The latter half of the work week looks to warm back into the 70s for daily highs. Sounds like the typical March weather rollercoaster!

The first Sunday of spring will be HOT!

The average Mecklenburg County high temperature for today - Sunday March 22nd - is 64º. This afternoon local thermometers will far exceed that reading, with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s! A northward bulge (upper level ridge) in the jet stream which has baked the western U.S. with record March heat is flattening out, allowing the very warm air to move east.

That level of warmth won't last long here, however. A surface cold front currently over the Great Lakes region will push south and east later today. Clouds will overspread Virginia late tonight with light rain showers possible Monday morning. Temperatures will start tomorrow in the mid-60s and only rise into the low 70s as a gusty north wind ushers in cooler air behind the boundary. 

Unfortunately rain from this system will be scanty, totaling less than a tenth of an inch. With continued dry conditions across the area much more moisture than that is necessary to change these drought conditions:

Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the week with temperatures starting out in the upper 30s before climbing into the upper 50s during the afternoon. The remainder of this week will then be very spring-like, with afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s. The next rain chance arrives Friday, but even that potential doesn't look very wet on current forecast model runs.

Welcome to spring!

Spring - the vernal equinox - officially arrives at 10:46 a.m. today (Friday). The sun's rays will be directly overhead at the equator, due to the combination of Earth's 23.5º tilt and the position in its orbit around Sol (our sun's official name). This diagram illustrates:

I'll let astronomers explain why the dates can vary a bit, since these are astronomical designations. (Meteorological seasons are consistent, with the arrival of spring designated as March 1st every year.)

Temperatures today and throughout the weekend will resemble spring as well, with daily maxima warming into the 70s and even the 80s by Sunday. After a chilly start in the upper 30s this morning Mecklenburg County will see plenty of sunshine accompanied by a southwesterly breeze. Clouds will move in this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, which will usher in chances of showers after 8 o'clock this evening. That rain looks to end before sunrise Saturday.

The cold front will take its time, finally edging across the area Saturday morning. This boundary is rather weak, not having particularly cold air behind it. In fact, tomorrow looks to be even warmer than today, with local thermometers topping out in the mid-70s under sunny skies and amid light winds.

Sunday will then dawn with temperatures only dipping to the lower 50s. Add 30 degrees to those readings under strengthening March sunshine and the afternoon highs will indeed reach into the 80s, almost twenty degrees above the average for the first weekend of spring. Enjoy the outdoors!

Chilly midweek temperatures will climb as the weekend nears

Monday's severe weather outcome proved to be difficult to forecast. Several factors were in play, with one being more rain showers across the Piedmont early Monday morning than expected. That precipitation robbed the available instability ("storm fuel") and complicated the setup at the last minute. I'll leave the detailed explanations to the professional meteorologists, but suffice it to say that even Sunday evening things still looked grim. 

There was a weak EF0 tornado verified by NWS Blacksburg in Martinsville - not shown on the graphic below -, but the widespread tornado potential thankfully didn't manifest. Still, there were a myriad of wind damage reports as the cold front itself blasted through Monday evening.

Power outages occurred as a result of these winds, with many Halifax County residents dealing with no electricity as temperatures plummeted behind the front. 

Today (Wednesday) began under somewhat cloudy skies around Mecklenburg County, with pre-dawn temperatures diving into the mid- and upper 20s. High pressure is in control of East Coast weather today, and skies will gradually clear after the lunch hour. Winds will be light, and local thermometers look to top out in the upper 40s this afternoon. That's fifteen degrees below the average at this point in March.

Thursday will begin similarly, with early morning temperatures again dropping into the mid-20s. Tomorrow will then begin a warmup as that high pressure center moves off the coast. Winds will turn around out of the south and usher in warmer air. Afternoon highs will climb to near the 60º mark under mostly sunny skies. Friday through Sunday then appears to bring back a taste of late spring, with 80º possible by the end of the weekend!

Dangerous weather for Monday!!

Remember last week when it was Virginia's Severe Weather Awareness Week? Hopefully folks took the safety information to heart, because it'll definitely be needed tomorrow (Monday). But first... Sunday is currently sunny and pleasant as this morning's blog entry is being written. Temperatures around Mecklenburg County began the day in the low 40s except in Clarksville, which "won" the prize at 48º thanks to a northeasterly breeze off the warmer lake waters.

A weak cold air damming wedge will hold down this afternoon's highs. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on, with easterly breezes ushering in cool moist air from off the Atlantic. The forecast high for today is in the low 70s, but don't be surprised if local thermometers struggle to rise above the mid-60s. There will be a few showers as well, with the coverage increasing near the dinner hour.

Then the weather will take a very serious turn for the worse. A powerful surface low pressure center will cross the Great Lakes region overnight, dragging an equally powerful cold front across the Appalachian Mountains. All the ingredients will be in place for severe weather Monday, prompting the Storm Prediction Center to issue a rare Moderate Risk - level 4 out of 5 - for much of the Piedmont.

All severe weather hazards are possible, including damaging straight-line winds, tornadoes, large hail, and local flooding. Rotating thunderstorms with the potential to produce tornadoes could arrive before dawn tomorrow, with more continuing throughout the lunch hour. A powerful squall line will push out ahead of the cold front itself and reach western parts of Mecklenburg County by mid- to late afternoon. That feature will bring an even higher potential for damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail.

It goes without saying that folks need to keep more than one method of receiving weather warnings at hand tonight and tomorrow. This graphic provides some suggestions (ignore the outdoor siren part...they're not widespread nor audible enough for folks inside buildings):

Remember, a WATCH means conditions are ripe for severe weather. A WARNING means severe weather is imminent. If a warning is issued take shelter inside a sturdy building on the lowest floor. Put as many walls between you and the outdoors as possible. Folks in mobile homes should evacuate to a nearby building, as mobile homes are very susceptible to damage from severe weather.

Folks, this won't be the typical summertime thunderstorm event. This setup is dangerous, so heed the warnings and be safe.

Severe Weather Awareness Week ends on a warming note

Today - Friday - marks the end of Virginia's Severe Weather Awareness Week. Many folks are much more interested in (or disgusted with!) wintry weather, but severe weather is more common and dangerous in these parts than people realize. Lightning is a threat from thunderstorms that should be heeded more than it is. This video is from today's severe weather emphasis on outdoor safety:

After very warm conditions earlier this week the weather took quite a turn behind Thursday's cold front. This graphic shows the jaw-dropping temperature changes from Wednesday to yesterday:

This morning's thermometer readings around Mecklenburg County sagged into the upper 20s. Fortunately today will bring a warmup as high pressure moves off the East Coast. Gusty southerly winds will pump warmer air into the area, and afternoon highs will climb back into the upper 50s. That's still a bit below average for the date, but strong March sunshine will make up the difference.

The weekend will feature a split weather personality. After a weak cold front passes through tomorrow morning Saturday will be sunny, with afternoon highs reaching the low 60s. As that boundary pushes south into the Carolinas another cold air damming wedge will be in place on Sunday. That will bring clouds, easterly winds, and temperatures likely to top out near 60º (vs. the official forecast high near 70º). Showers are likely Sunday afternoon and evening.

Another strong cold front on Monday could foster severe weather, so this week's emphasis on it could prove prescient. Stay tuned!

 

Summer-like Wednesday, with a return to March conditions Thursday

Much above average temperatures will continue today (Wednesday) around Mecklenburg County. After morning lows near 60º local thermometers will top out in the upper 80s this afternoon. A small area of showers is crossing the county as this is written, but there will be plenty of sunshine today.

The summer-like heat will be accompanied by gusty southwest winds, which are pumping copious amounts of moisture into the region. All this is occurring ahead of a powerful cold front which will cross the Appalachian Mountains tonight. As that boundary rolls through near sunrise Thursday more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will pass through the area.

The timing of this front will create a topsy-turvy temperature profile for Thursday. The official high temperature will be near 70º, but that will happen just after midnight tonight. Those readings will fall all day long tomorrow behind the boundary as gusty northwest winds usher in cooler air. By 2:00 p.m. air temperatures will have dropped to the mid-40s (wind chill, anyone?) on their way to the freezing mark early Friday morning. 

Meanwhile, it's still Severe Weather Awareness Week here in Virginia. Today's emphasis is on severe thunderstorms, including hail, lightning, and wind. This video from NWS Wakefield talks about the different types of severe thunderstorms: