The warmup commences, but the clouds and rain stick around for a while

As mentioned in Friday's blogpost temperatures in the midst of a cold air damming (CAD) event - like the current one across the Piedmont - can be tricky to forecast. Saturday's highs in the upper 50s to near 60º around Mecklenburg County were a good ten degrees lower than anticipated. Today - Sunday - that CAD setup looks to finally start breaking down.

The high pressure center over New England which was reinforcing the cool northerly wind flow is moving off the coast this morning. That will swing this morning's winds around out of the south later today, allowing temperatures to climb back toward late May averages. This afternoon's high temperature will top out in the mid-70s despite persistent cloud cover, although sunshine may peek through a few times before sunset at 8:22 p.m. in Clarksville.

Despite unfortunate timing which has marred Memorial Day weekend plans, the rainfall has been very beneficial. The left panel below shows recent rain gauge totals while the right panel is a forecast of additional precipitation through this coming Friday morning:

Daylight hours today will be mostly dry, but more showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will arrive after dark. 

Sunshine will continue to be scarce through midweek as another cold front approaches and stalls out across Virginia. The next day with "partly sunny" in the forecast is Thursday. However, temperatures look to be more reasonable for this time of year with afternoon highs again climbing above the 80º mark.

Sweatshirts to shorts and back again: May 2026

The weather the first couple weeks of this month seemed like it would never warm to spring-like levels. Then the 90s showed up as an uninvited guest last week, bringing shorts and t-shirt conditions. Now, thanks to Thursday's backdoor cold front and the resulting cold air damming (CAD) wedge it's back to sweatshirts for a couple of days. That's May 2026 weather in a nutshell.

Temperatures dropped like a rock as that boundary pushed south across Mecklenburg County late Thursday afternoon, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Rain totals across the area ranged from 1.92" in Clarksville and 2.26" in Chase City to a somewhat miserly 0.30" for South Hill. Any and all precipitation is welcome, however, given the increasingly concerning drought conditions.

Today (Friday), local thermometer readings look to top out only in the low to mid-60s under cloudy skies. The cloud cover will stick around throughout the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, with showers and storms possible each day. Here's the NWS Wakefield outlook for rain totals through 8:00 pm Sunday:

Monday, Memorial Day, will also feature chances of rain as yet another slow-moving cold front crosses the Appalachians.

Afternoon high temperature forecasts for this weekend could be a bit tricky, as these CAD events can be stubborn to dislodge. Saturday will also be cool, with afternoon highs likely only touching the 70º mark. Sunday's forecast high is in the low 80s, but the actual afternoon maximum may be a few degrees lower than that. By Monday the low 80s are more likely.

Record setting temperatures Wednesday(?), but relief is on the horizon

Today - Wednesday - could bring record high temperatures to a few sites. Here's a prototype map from the National Weather Service showing such possibilities (red numbers) east of the Blue Ridge:

Mecklenburg County localities will see another day of afternoon temperatures topping out in the mid-90s. The good news is that dew points are in the reasonable range, so the overall humidity will stay just below the "miserable" range.

Thursday features a significant change in this summer-like heat as a cold front slowly presses south and east. Most of tomorrow will be sunny and warmer than average again, but temperatures will halt their daily climb at the mid-80s. Clouds, showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will arrive as that boundary finally enters the county during the late afternoon hours.

The weather for the Memorial Day weekend will involve a somewhat rare late May cold air damming setup. Temperatures could feel a bit chilly after this week's heat, and some very welcome rainfall is in the forecast. That's probably not what most folks would desire for a holiday weekend, but the parched ground, dwindling creeks and streams, and the air conditioning bills will appreciate it! 
 

Increased heat risks to begin the work week

Today's (Monday's) forecast high looks to be in the mid-90s, with those readings likely to be repeated Tuesday. The National Weather Service's Heat Risk page has Mecklenburg County in the "Major" impact category both days. As a result heat safety practices will be important:

Today and tomorrow will feature sunny skies and southwesterly winds, both of which are factors contributing to this heat. Overnight temperatures will only fall into the upper 60s at most sites, an indication that humidity levels are also increasing. These conditions are typical of mid-summer, but given that the first half of May has been relatively cool this surge of early season heat and humidity will stress people and animals. 

Relief is on the way Wednesday night in the form of a cold front. That boundary will stall nearby for several days, fostering showers and thunderstorms which should bring much-needed rain for the area. Until then think cool thoughts!

A heat wave to start this week, but then cooler and...rain?

Saturday's highs in the mid- and upper 80s pale in comparison to what can be expected during the first half of this week. The mid-90s will take charge starting today - Sunday - and last through Wednesday. A summer-like Bermuda High is setting up over the Atlantic, pumping in the heat via southerly winds.

This heat wave could be impactful, especially since a good part of May has featured cooler than average weather. Taking plenty of breaks, drinking lots of liquids, and staying out of the sun as much as possible are all heat tips which should be heeded. However, there is relief on the horizon.

A cold front will approach the region, bringing clouds and rain as soon as Wednesday night. The boundary will stall nearby, keeping things cooler and wetter. The rain could be heavy at times (right panel below), which is good news given the worsening drought situation (left panel). 

The clouds and rain will also bring relief to the heat, with daily high temperatures dropping considerably by Thursday.

The "bad" news is that Memorial Day weekend looks to be cool and wet. But that's not a bad thing given how much the rain is needed.

Stairstep air temperatures lead to a hot ending for the weekend!

This - Friday - morning most Mecklenburg County thermometers registered lows in the mid-40s. Under sunny skies and relatively dry air those readings will soar into the mid-70s this afternoon. That's still a few degrees below average for mid-May, but it'll be a glorious spring day nonetheless.

High pressure is centered across the eastern U.S. today. As it moves off the coast tonight, the clockwise circulation of air around the center will turn winds around out of the south, Warmer air will thus move in, with Saturday beginning with temperatures in the mid-50s before rising to afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Sunday looks to be even warmer, with morning lows in the 60s leading to afternoon temperatures climbing into the low 90s(!).

Under clear skies and with dry weather the waters of Buggs Island / Kerr Reservoir will be very inviting this weekend. Keep in mind that the water temperatures are still rather chilly. These readings are from the vicinity of the dam:

The heat will continue into the early part of next week, so prepare for a spring heat wave!
 

Dwindling Wednesday rain chances

Today - Wednesday - will be mostly sunny with afternoon temperatures topping out near the 80º mark. Just before today's sunset at 8:13 p.m. clouds will roll in thanks to an approaching cold front. Forecast rain totals from this boundary have now dissipated to less than a tenth of a inch, lending truth to an old weather saying that "Drought begets drought". 

The cold front is associated with a low pressure center which is traversing the Great Lakes region. Mature storm systems like this one produce a "comma-head" signature on satellite views as denoted on this image:

The cold front itself is just beginning to cross the Appalachian Mountains this morning.

Cooler air filtering in via northwest winds will hold Thursday's maximum temperatures to the low 70s. Skies will be mostly sunny tomorrow morning before clouds build overhead during the early afternoon hours. Those clouds will evaporate tomorrow night, and local thermometers will drop back into the mid-40s by dawn Friday.

Then the heat arrives for the weekend. Get those fans and air conditioners ready for the 90s to show back up by Sunday!!