Dangerous heat levels through the end of the week

It's still officially summer, but those who might protest that "summer is always hot" are underestimating the heat danger both today - Wednesday - and tomorrow. Afternoon temperatures near the century mark coupled with very sticky humidity levels will yield heat indices (what it feels like) well above 100º both days. Temperatures at dawn won't drop much below the mid-70s, so there won't be much overnight relief.

This combination has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a heat advisory beginning at 11 o'clock this morning and lasting through 8:00 p.m. tomorrow evening.

Although there is a very small chance of showers or storms both evenings, precipitation will remain scanty and scattered until Friday afternoon. By that time a "cold" front will have approached close enough to Mecklenburg County to trigger rain and storms. Until then, expect stifling heat and humidity to blanket the area.

In the meantime, practice heat safety and keep an eye on those most vulnerable to this level of late summer heat. Autumn weather is coming, but it isn't here yet!

Sauna-like conditions begin the work week

Today - Monday, August 31st - is the last official day of meteorological summer, but the weather doesn't pay attention to human definitions. Mecklenburg County will see a resurgence of summertime heat and humidity this week, starting with today's afternoon highs in the mid-90s. The reason for this latest heat wave can be laid at the doorstep of an upper level ridge parked over the eastern half of the nation. 

These ridges feature sinking air underneath them, resulting in generally clear skies and rising temperatures. This graphic showing the upper air flow illustrates this weather feature:

Having said that, there could be a stray shower or storm across the county late this afternoon into the evening. No widespread precipitation is expected, however.

Tuesday looks to be even steamier, with morning temperatures only sagging into the 70s alongside increasing humidity. Tomorrow afternoon local thermometers will climb into the mid-90s to begin the month of September. Again, there is a very slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm tomorrow, but that would be a very localized phenomenon. 

This latest heat wave will continue until a backdoor cold front makes its way south of the area sometime Friday. Until then, the 90s are back in town! 

"False fall" is over and some significant heat is back this week

The pleasantly comfortable conditions of last week (aka "false fall") will be only a memory over the next several days. Heat and humidity are returning with a vengeance Monday. Morning low temperatures look to begin the work week in the sticky low 70s before creeping their way up into the upper 70s by Thursday. Meanwhile, afternoon highs will climb back into the upper 90s and even flirt with the triple digits later in the week.

This graphic shows that this heat is expected to cover the eastern half of the country:

Little or no chance of rain is in the forecast to alleviate the heat through most of the week. Not only will that keep the heat in place, but the continued lack of rain certainly won't help the drought situation!

Scattered showers and storms, but not a washout weekend

This Friday morning began with fog in some locales thanks to temperatures and dew points equalling each other. A "cold" front which crossed the mountains last night is on the doorstep, and it will wobble back and forth across the region over the next 24-36 hours. Today will thus feature mixed sunshine and clouds, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s.

Showers and storms are possible later this afternoon through the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today, with strong straight-line winds being the chief threat. However, several short range weather models currently agree that any storms would hold off until near or after sunset, lessening the threat of severe weather.

That boundary looks to push just south of Mecklenburg County tonight. A light northeasterly breeze behind it will help keep Saturday a few degrees cooler, with afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Showers and storms are less likely but still possible tomorrow. By Sunday that front will be far enough south to allow for more sunshine and less clouds, with temperatures ranging from morning lows in the upper 60s to afternoon highs in the upper 80s.

Meanwhile, the irony of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is that the only current disturbance is Tropical Storm Dolly:

Storm names are chosen several years in advance, so this is just a coincidence given the recent death of the beloved Dolly Parton. The good news is that this storm will weaken as it moves west, lessening the chances of creating havoc over populated areas. I'm sure Dolly herself would have been pleased at that.

Humidity and rain chances return for the second half of the week

The very pleasant late August conditions continued this Wednesday morning, with local thermometers recording lows at or just below the 60º mark. Correspondingly low dew points made for another night of low humidity and comfortable sleeping. However, both temperatures and humidity will be on the rise later today as the high pressure responsible for this pleasant weather finally moves off the East Coast.

Under partly cloudy skies this afternoon's temperatures look to top out in the upper 80s, with southerly winds pumping higher humidity into Mecklenburg County. Since humid air is more efficient at holding in the day's heat, overnight temperatures will only drop to near 70 degrees by dawn Thursday. Tomorrow afternoon's highs will again be in the upper 80s, but the stickiness will be much more noticeable. Shower and storm chances will also be on the increase Thursday afternoon, continuing into the overnight hours.

Meanwhile, there has been a lot of media chatter about the current El Nino setup. One of the effects of that specific weather pattern is to suppress the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, while over in the eastern Pacific things can be rather active. This graphic illustrates the current difference:

Even the one potential storm shown on Atlantic (left) panel isn't likely to strengthen or even survive. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is still a couple weeks away, so it's worth keeping an eye on. But at the moment there's nothing that looks to affect local conditions.

"Chamber of Commerce" weather begins the work week

Bright blue skies, lowered humidity, and plenty of sunshine...those conditions sound a bit anomalous for late August in Mecklenburg County. Strong high pressure diving south out of central Canada is in control of the weather across the eastern half of the U.S. That atmospheric feature brought a refreshing break from the typical summer feeling around these parts. 

To further illustrate the point, check out these low temperatures since midnight:

The thermometer at the Clarksville site dipped below the 60º mark this Monday morning(!). Meanwhile, the temperature at the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake dam only dropped to the mid-60s thanks to the nearby warm waters of the reservoir.

Temperatures this afternoon will still climb into the upper 80s, which is actually the average high for late August locally. Tonight the core of the cool air will settle in across the county, likely leading to Tuesday morning temperatures a few degrees lower than this morning's readings. Tomorrow afternoon's highs will mirror today's readings, topping out again in the upper 80s.

This cool and dry interlude looks to continue through at least Wednesday afternoon. Enjoy!

Ahhhhh...a cool change is in place

A relatively strong August cold front pushed across Mecklenburg County this Sunday morning, opening the door to cooler and - more importantly - drier air. This is all due to a southward dip in the jet stream across the eastern U.S. as illustrated here:

And, as shown, the heat continues across western sections of the country, with a long-running heat wave still in place out that way.

Skies will thus be sunny today locally, with thermometers halting their afternoon rise in the mid-80s. Dew points in the mid-60s this morning will drop the rest of the day as that drier air continues to filter in. By the time the sun sets at 7:54 p.m. over the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake dam, those dew points will be down to the very comfortable mid-50s. That will make for some good sleeping weather!

These nice late August conditions look to continue through midweek. By Wednesday afternoon that dip in the jet stream will flatten out, allowing moister air to creep back northward into the county. Showers and storms will return Wednesday night, with daily chances of rain lasting into the final weekend of the month.

Enjoy the break in the humidity!