Finally, a sunny weekend!!

The midweek's storm system again underperformed regarding the amount of actual vs. expected rain totals. Here's a map showing the liquid amounts collected in local rain gauges through this Friday morning:

Instead of the half-inch to inch rainfall forecasts, Mecklenburg County was mostly in the quarter- to half-inch range. (The circled observation is the Island Creek Reservoir weather station, which has been exhibiting questionable temperature and rainfall measurements.) Those totals didn't put much of a dent in the increasingly dry conditions across the area.

Today will feature particularly nice weather to end the work week heading into the weekend. After Thursday's daytime temperatures only in the mid-50s, this morning's lows in the 40s will give way to afternoon readings in the low 70s. Brilliant May sunshine will dominate today's skies.

Saturday and Sunday both look to have almost perfect weather for outdoor enthusiasts. Sunshine and afternoon highs in the upper 70s tomorrow and mid-80s on Sunday will be more typical of May conditions than earlier this week. The one potential fly in the ointment will be a gusty southwest breeze Saturday, which could make Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir waters a bit choppy.

Clouds and rain showers will reenter the local picture Sunday night through Monday as a low pressure center forms along an approaching cold front. The next blogpost on Monday will take a look at the weather for the beginning of the work week.

Clouds and rain will be the midweek weather story

An approaching cold front will creep across the Appalachians today (Wednesday). Ahead of it southerly breezes will continue to gust over 20 mph, with light showers dampening the landscape this morning. That warm moist wind direction will enable temperatures to climb from this morning's low 60s to afternoon highs in the mid-70s despite the lack of sunshine. There may be a couple rumbles of thunder today as well, but nothing severe is expected.

Rain totals during the daylight hours won't be impressive. However, additional precipitation this evening and throughout Thursday will help boost liquid amounts collected in local gauges. Here's the latest NWS Wakefield outlook for rainfall totals from this system:

Thursday's official high temperature in the mid- to upper 60s will likely occur just after midnight tonight. That slow moving cold front will finally edge its way through Mecklenburg County tomorrow morning, opening the door to cooler air. Temperatures will thus fall into the upper 50s by lunch time tomorrow as winds swap around out of the north.

Skies will clear late Thursday afternoon, leading up to a sunny and pleasant Friday.

Warm and sunny to begin the work week, then rain later?

This Monday morning thermometers at Mecklenburg County sites bottomed out in the low 40s. Thanks to a southwesterly wind and strong May sunshine those readings will climb into the upper 70s this afternoon. That's pretty close to the 30 year average for this date.

Tonight those southerly breezes will gust up to 20 mph, ushering in much warmer air. Thus Tuesday morning low temperatures will only drop into the mid-50s, followed by afternoon highs in the low 80s under continued sunny skies. By tomorrow night clouds will begin to overspread the area as the next storm system moves across the mountains.

Some beneficial rain is therefore possible for the midweek period. At the moment this is the outlook for precipitation totals for the first and second halves of this week:

Fingers crossed that this next system will actually overcome the dry air currently in place over the region and bring that rain. We'll see.

A modicum of hope for rain this week

Saturday's rain potential was a total fizzle for Mecklenburg County. The storm system which looked like it would deposit at least some liquid in local gauges wound up tracking further east than originally thought. Thus the big "zippo" for rain...however, there's another chance later this week.

First, today - Sunday - will be sunny and cool. Chase City was the beneficiary of this morning's lowest temperature at 36º, cold enough for frost worries. This afternoon those readings will climb into the mid-60s, accompanied by a northwesterly breeze. By sunset at 8:05 p.m. the winds will calm a bit, swapping around of the south to usher in warmer air.

Monday will dawn with morning lows in the mid-40s ahead of afternoon maxima climbing into the mid-70s. Tuesday looks even warmer, with highs in the 80s likely around the county. Then, Tuesday evening clouds will drift in ahead of the next storm system, which looks to bring a decent chance of rain for midweek. Here's a peek at the precipitation anticipated by Friday morning:

The white line indicates this week's storm track. It's a bit further south and east than during recent weeks, but the main precipitation axis still lies along and west of the Appalachians. Even so, the potential is there for Mecklenburg County and the rest of parched Virginia to see some decent rain totals later this week.

A mixed weather weekend to begin May

Welcome to May, a month which begins with average high temperatures in the mid-70s and ends with average highs in the low 80s (corresponding morning lows: low 50s rising to low 60s). Today's - Friday's - thermometer readings will climb from the low 40s at dawn to right around 70º this afternoon, a bit cooler than those averages. Winds will be light and skies will be mostly sunny.

A weak cold front will pass through Mecklenburg County after midnight. That boundary will usher in clouds and a chance of showers as Saturday begins. A developing low pressure center scooting northeastward along the coastline will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina by dawn. Given the cloud cover and precipitation the temperature range tomorrow will be rather narrow, starting the morning near 50º and only climbing into the upper 50s for afternoon highs. 

That storm system originally looked like it would bring a decent amount of rain to the county, but liquid totals are now forecast to be less than a quarter-inch locally. That's not good news, especially given this week's Drought Monitor showing more of the region to be in the Extreme Drought (red) category:

The rain will taper off Saturday evening, with clouds clearing away by sunrise on Sunday. The latter weekend day will begin with temperatures in the low 40s, rising to the mid-60s for afternoon highs. A northwest breeze will keep it feeling much cooler than the first Sunday of May.

A midweek precipitation "fizzle"?

The Storm Prediction Center has blanketed most of Virginia with a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today (Wednesday):

A low pressure center will cross northern Virginia later today, dragging a cold front across the state. Temperatures across Mecklenburg County will rise from this morning's upper 50s to at or near 70º this afternoon. Most numerical forecast models are now showing much less rain than was evident in earlier model runs, and the likelihood of strong to severe storms for the local area appears to have decreased. Still, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the sky this afternoon, with an ear tuned to any weather warnings that may be issued.

Although cloudy skies will be the rule, most model forecasts indicate only light showers arriving mid-afternoon. Local rain gauges may be hard-pressed to record even a tenth of an inch of liquid. The bulk of the rain from this system looks to occur near the low pressure center, dowsing areas along and north of I-64.

Once that cold front passes through this evening skies will clear by midnight. Local thermometer readings will drop into the low 50s by dawn Thursday. Tomorrow will then feature sunny skies, a gentle northerly breeze, and afternoon highs in the low 70s. The weather looks to be very pleasant for the final day of April (already??).

Sunny and mild on a somber anniversary

Today - Monday, April 27th - marks the 15th anniversary of the peak of a once-in-a-generation severe weather outbreak. The final day of the deadly 2011 tornado outbreak resulted in over 300 deaths and thousands of injuries across multiple states. This is the Storm Prediction Center's map of the severe reports that day:

Although no tornadoes were reported in Mecklenburg County, next door in Halifax County a tornado caused a death and several injuries.

The good news is that today's weather will be sunny and mild, with afternoon temperatures topping out near 70º. A northerly breeze will keep the cool air coming thanks to high pressure centered across New England. These conditions are much more April-like than Sunday's gloomy weather, which resulted in sub-60 degree high temperatures. That's well below the mid-70s average for late April.

As that high pressure pushes off the coast tonight the next spring-time cold front will begin its approach. That boundary will hang up across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as a low pressure center develops along it. The overall result for Mecklenburg County will be increasing clouds and some showers tomorrow. Rain totals will be light, with temperatures again topping out near the 70º mark.

As that boundary nears the area Wednesday more rain and even thunderstorms are in the forecast. There is only a small chance of strong to severe storms on Hump Day, but the main weather story looks to be the potential for a quarter- to a half-inch of rain. That would be very welcome in these increasingly dry conditions.