Scarce sunshine for the next few days

The current active weather pattern is rolling storm systems across the nation with regularity. The result for Mecklenburg County will be a decided lack of sunshine through the upcoming weekend, punctuated by periods of light rain. The good news is that temperatures look to remain at or above average until late in the weekend.

Today - Wednesday - will be mostly dry under cloudy skies. Gusty southwest winds ahead of a low pressure center over the Great Lakes will pump warm and moist air into the area. Thus, despite the lack of sunshine temperatures will top out in the upper 60s this afternoon following this morning's lows near the 50º mark. 

Precipitation will hold off until this evening, although there could be a few light showers late this afternoon. Thursday holds a greater chance of rain as a frontal boundary is forced southward (a "backdoor front") by high pressure located over New England. That front will usher in a cold air damming scenario, which is illustrated on this graphic:

Given the timing of that boundary's arrival in Mecklenburg County Thursday's high temperature may well occur during the morning hours, with thermometer readings dropping during the afternoon. And, given the uncertainties associated with these low level cool air wedges, tomorrow's forecast high in the mid-60s could be optimistic. 

The weekend weather looks mostly cloudy and showery, with temperatures by Sunday likely to drop below average again. Another lobe of cold air will be pushed across the East Coast as the jet stream sags south once again. It won't be Arctic level frigid, but early next week looks cooler than late February should be.  

Slowly improving conditions for Presidents' Day

Although today - Monday, February 16th - is officially known as Washington's Birthday in honor of our first president, the honoree's true birthday is February 22nd. This disparity is thanks to the "Uniform Monday Holidays Act" of 1968. Thus the unofficial designation for this February holiday is Presidents' Day.

Regardless of how it's labeled today will provide a drying out period after the weekend rainfall. Most Mecklenburg County sites received almost an inch of liquid rain, with a Chase City gauge collecting a total of 1.72". Along with melting most remaining snow piles this amount of liquid will certainly help - but not eliminate - drought conditions.

Skies remain cloudy locally this morning as the storm system slowly pulls away out over the Atlantic. This visible satellite image shows the cloud line bisecting Virginia from north to south: 

The overcast will gradually push eastward out of Mecklenburg County, with sunshine becoming dominant by the lunch hour. Temperatures look to slowly climb into the low 50s this afternoon, and this morning's gusty northerly winds will settle down to near calm conditions.

Tuesday will then begin with temperatures in the mid-30s under clear skies. Afternoon highs will top out in the low 60s as sunshine coupled with a light southwesterly breeze warms the area. More clouds will roll in Tuesday night, with the current active weather pattern bringing several chances of much needed rain during the latter half of the week. But don't worry...daily high temperatures will still rise into the 60s the rest of this week for that early taste of spring.

Wet Sunday, and then a warmer week ahead

Here's a quick Sunday morning post: 

Today will be wet and cool, with an inch or more of rain collecting in Mecklenburg County gauges. That should help most snow piles disappear as well as wash the salt and brine off roadways. Temperatures will only rise to near the 50º mark this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the upcoming week looks appreciably warmer than most of February to date. Monday - Presidents' Day - will be the coolest day with highs in the mid-50s under gradually clearing skies. After that there's a high probability of reaching 70 degrees by midweek. The recent stubborn pattern of a West Coast ridge and an East Coast trough has swapped, with the colder weather (and snow) shifting to the other side of the country as shown on this graphic:

This doesn't mean winter is totally over, but its grasp is definitely loosening!

Warm and dry Saturday, but cooler and wet Sunday

Today - Friday - temperatures will warm from cold morning lows in the 20s to afternoon highs in the mid-40s. That's 8-10 degrees below the Mecklenburg County average for the second weekend of February. Two mitigating factors to alleviate the chilly feeling in the air will be abundant sunshine and very light winds.

High pressure sprawling across the eastern half of the nation will keep the weather settled through Saturday. Local thermometers will begin tomorrow morning in the upper 20s, but by the afternoon many areas will reach the 60º mark. With continued sunny skies and light winds tomorrow will be the bonus day of the Presidents' Day weekend.

However, that high pressure will slide off the East Coast Saturday night. Meanwhile, a very wet low pressure center will cross the Gulf Coast states on its way toward Cape Hatteras. The result will be a very wet Sunday afternoon and evening, with total forecast rain - yes, rain! - amounts shown here:

Precipitation looks to continue into Monday morning before tapering off. Afternoon temperatures both Sunday and Monday will top out in the low 50s.

Behind this storm system temperatures next week will rebound to above average readings. Between the upcoming rain and warmth any remaining snirt (snow + dirt) piles should disappear. That's good news!

More "reasonable" February weather lies ahead

Tuesday's high temperature at the airport near South Hill topped out at 66º, a far cry from the recent frigid regime. A cold front which crossed Mecklenburg County before sunrise this Wednesday morning (at 7:07 a.m. in Clarksville) is ushering in cooler - but not really cold - air. Skies will slowly clear as today progresses, becoming partly cloudy after the lunch hour. 

Local thermometers today will top out near 60º during the early afternoon, accompanied by a northwesterly breeze. Overnight, those readings will sag into the upper 20s by dawn as that cooler air filters into the region. Thursday's temperatures will then resemble more typical February conditions, with afternoon highs near 50º under mostly sunny skies.

Peeking ahead at the upcoming weekend Saturday looks to be warm and dry. Sunday will then feature a decent amount of rain (yes, plain ol' rain!) which will help alleviate the ongoing dryness locally. This graphic, showing the total liquid amounts expected through next Monday, illustrates the overall storm track across the southern half of the nation:

Is winter weather behind us? Maybe, maybe not...but the worst of the cold is likely done for the season.

A temperature boost to begin the work week

Monday morning temperatures sagged into the Arctic range once again. Both South Hill and Boydton weather stations recorded lows of 9º just after 6:30 a.m., with accompanying arid dew points adding to the frigid feeling in the air. The good(?) news is that abundant sunshine and calm winds will push this afternoon's temperatures up to the 40º mark, a veritable heat wave compared to recent weeks

That "heat wave" will actually intensify Tuesday as a warm front (red line below) lifts north across most of Virginia. Here's the forecast surface map at 7:00 p.m. tomorrow:

Local thermometers will soar from Tuesday morning lows in the upper 20s to the 60º mark for many locales tomorrow afternoon. That will definitely help the melting process for those stubborn ice and snow patches.

The air behind the cold front (blue line in the graphic) isn't another visitor from the Arctic. Instead, that boundary heralds a return to temperatures closer to February averages for Mecklenburg County. It won't be quite spring-like, but the latter half of the work week will feel balmy compared to the recent deep freeze!

The "morning teens" are just about gone

This - Sunday's - morning's temperatures once again bottomed out in the teens amid the Arctic air mass still covering Mecklenburg County. That looks to be the penultimate (i.e. next to last) bout with this level of chill given a pattern change in the works. The overall jet stream flow will bottle up any more Arctic air invasions, keeping the frigid air well north of the area as this week progresses. 

Clouds will move in this morning as a weak upper air disturbance passes to the south of the area. Winds will be much lighter today (vs. Saturday's gales) as the air pressure gradient relaxes. Local thermometers will top out in the low 30s this afternoon, still a good 15-20 degrees below the average for this date.

Tonight's clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to plunge back into the teens by dawn Monday. That, however, looks to be the last gasp of the current Arctic regime. Under sunny skies and continued light winds tomorrow afternoon's highs around the county will top out in the low 40s. Tuesday will then begin with temperatures in the upper 20s, climbing to near or above the 60º mark during the afternoon.

The remainder of the work week will resemble more typical (i.e. less frigid) February conditions. There will be a couple rounds of precipitation possible, which is good news given the growing drought conditions. Here's the latest Drought Monitor graphic showing the severity:

Hopefully the coming spring will bring enough rain to put a dent in these dry conditions.