"False fall" is over and some significant heat is back this week

The pleasantly comfortable conditions of last week (aka "false fall") will be only a memory over the next several days. Heat and humidity are returning with a vengeance Monday. Morning low temperatures look to begin the work week in the sticky low 70s before creeping their way up into the upper 70s by Thursday. Meanwhile, afternoon highs will climb back into the upper 90s and even flirt with the triple digits later in the week.

This graphic shows that this heat is expected to cover the eastern half of the country:

Little or no chance of rain is in the forecast to alleviate the heat through most of the week. Not only will that keep the heat in place, but the continued lack of rain certainly won't help the drought situation!

Scattered showers and storms, but not a washout weekend

This Friday morning began with fog in some locales thanks to temperatures and dew points equalling each other. A "cold" front which crossed the mountains last night is on the doorstep, and it will wobble back and forth across the region over the next 24-36 hours. Today will thus feature mixed sunshine and clouds, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s.

Showers and storms are possible later this afternoon through the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today, with strong straight-line winds being the chief threat. However, several short range weather models currently agree that any storms would hold off until near or after sunset, lessening the threat of severe weather.

That boundary looks to push just south of Mecklenburg County tonight. A light northeasterly breeze behind it will help keep Saturday a few degrees cooler, with afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Showers and storms are less likely but still possible tomorrow. By Sunday that front will be far enough south to allow for more sunshine and less clouds, with temperatures ranging from morning lows in the upper 60s to afternoon highs in the upper 80s.

Meanwhile, the irony of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is that the only current disturbance is Tropical Storm Dolly:

Storm names are chosen several years in advance, so this is just a coincidence given the recent death of the beloved Dolly Parton. The good news is that this storm will weaken as it moves west, lessening the chances of creating havoc over populated areas. I'm sure Dolly herself would have been pleased at that.

Humidity and rain chances return for the second half of the week

The very pleasant late August conditions continued this Wednesday morning, with local thermometers recording lows at or just below the 60º mark. Correspondingly low dew points made for another night of low humidity and comfortable sleeping. However, both temperatures and humidity will be on the rise later today as the high pressure responsible for this pleasant weather finally moves off the East Coast.

Under partly cloudy skies this afternoon's temperatures look to top out in the upper 80s, with southerly winds pumping higher humidity into Mecklenburg County. Since humid air is more efficient at holding in the day's heat, overnight temperatures will only drop to near 70 degrees by dawn Thursday. Tomorrow afternoon's highs will again be in the upper 80s, but the stickiness will be much more noticeable. Shower and storm chances will also be on the increase Thursday afternoon, continuing into the overnight hours.

Meanwhile, there has been a lot of media chatter about the current El Nino setup. One of the effects of that specific weather pattern is to suppress the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, while over in the eastern Pacific things can be rather active. This graphic illustrates the current difference:

Even the one potential storm shown on Atlantic (left) panel isn't likely to strengthen or even survive. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is still a couple weeks away, so it's worth keeping an eye on. But at the moment there's nothing that looks to affect local conditions.

"Chamber of Commerce" weather begins the work week

Bright blue skies, lowered humidity, and plenty of sunshine...those conditions sound a bit anomalous for late August in Mecklenburg County. Strong high pressure diving south out of central Canada is in control of the weather across the eastern half of the U.S. That atmospheric feature brought a refreshing break from the typical summer feeling around these parts. 

To further illustrate the point, check out these low temperatures since midnight:

The thermometer at the Clarksville site dipped below the 60º mark this Monday morning(!). Meanwhile, the temperature at the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake dam only dropped to the mid-60s thanks to the nearby warm waters of the reservoir.

Temperatures this afternoon will still climb into the upper 80s, which is actually the average high for late August locally. Tonight the core of the cool air will settle in across the county, likely leading to Tuesday morning temperatures a few degrees lower than this morning's readings. Tomorrow afternoon's highs will mirror today's readings, topping out again in the upper 80s.

This cool and dry interlude looks to continue through at least Wednesday afternoon. Enjoy!

Ahhhhh...a cool change is in place

A relatively strong August cold front pushed across Mecklenburg County this Sunday morning, opening the door to cooler and - more importantly - drier air. This is all due to a southward dip in the jet stream across the eastern U.S. as illustrated here:

And, as shown, the heat continues across western sections of the country, with a long-running heat wave still in place out that way.

Skies will thus be sunny today locally, with thermometers halting their afternoon rise in the mid-80s. Dew points in the mid-60s this morning will drop the rest of the day as that drier air continues to filter in. By the time the sun sets at 7:54 p.m. over the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake dam, those dew points will be down to the very comfortable mid-50s. That will make for some good sleeping weather!

These nice late August conditions look to continue through midweek. By Wednesday afternoon that dip in the jet stream will flatten out, allowing moister air to creep back northward into the county. Showers and storms will return Wednesday night, with daily chances of rain lasting into the final weekend of the month.

Enjoy the break in the humidity!

Sunshine early Friday will give way to more clouds and rain

A slow moving "cold" front helped create the conditions for some rough and tumble storms Thursday evening. Trees were reported down in Chase City just before 7:00 p.m., and a funnel cloud was sighted north of Baskerville after 8 o'clock. Meanwhile, Boydton recorded over an inch of rainfall before things settled down.

That precipitation, plus more arriving over the next 24-36 hours, will continue to ease the drought across Virginia. This week's Drought Monitor is showing the state almost completely free of the angry red shading of the Extreme Drought conditions:

Today - Friday - will begin with calm weather as that "cold" front has sagged a bit south of the county. Light northerly winds and partly cloudy skies will keep temperatures from climbing past the mid-80s this afternoon. By the dinner hour, however, an upper air disturbance coupled with that nearby boundary will foster more showers and storms.

Saturday looks to be the wet half of the upcoming weekend. The continued proximity of that front will keep cloudy skies across the area, with temperatures topping out only in the low 80s tomorrow afternoon. Showers and storms will be likely through the wee hours of Sunday morning.

A stronger cold front crossing the Appalachian Mountains will clear away the clouds, leaving behind drier air for a beautiful Sunday. Sunshine, light winds, and afternoon temperatures in the mid-80s will make for pleasant weather to end the weekend.

A slightly less humid Wednesday will give way to a stickier Thursday

Summertime "cold" fronts typically bring drier - but not much cooler - air into Mecklenburg County. Tuesday morning's boundary passage did just that, allowing the stickiness to ease overnight. That helped this (Wednesday) morning's temperatures around the county to actually dip into the upper 60s at a couple of locales.

Sunny skies and the strong August sunshine will boost this afternoon's highs to the 90º mark on most local thermometers. However, with this slightly drier air mass in place the heat index will remain below the triple digit mark for a slightly more comfortable day. The clear skies will continue into tonight.

Tomorrow will feature a rapid return of higher humidity thanks to two factors. First, the aforementioned boundary - now well south of the area - will push back north. As it does so, another front will be crossing the Appalachians from the Ohio valley. The combination will open the door to very sticky air still residing across the southeastern states.

Thus, after a mostly sunny first half of Thursday, showers and storms return to the forecast tomorrow afternoon. That second "cold" front will hang up near the coast early Friday morning. The boundary's proximity to Mecklenburg County will foster a significant amount of rain Thursday night through Friday. This NWS Wakefield graphic shows expected totals across the region by Saturday morning:

At this point it looks like another split-personality weekend upcoming, with a cloudy and damp Saturday followed by a sunny and dry Sunday. The next blogpost will take a closer look at that on Friday.