Saturday's storm and power outages may be a harbinger of this week's weather

Winds from Saturday's storms downed multiple trees across Mecklenburg County, shutting off power and interrupting Lake Fest in Clarksville. The Storm Prediction Center has issued multiple days of severe weather outlooks starting today (Sunday). Thus more of the same can be expected today and for much of the upcoming work week.

Given a change in the overall weather pattern today also looks to be the warmest of the week. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low 90s, just about average for mid-July. The approach of the first of a couple of "cold" fronts will bring clouds and more storms this afternoon, with another threat of more damaging winds.

That boundary will stall out nearby, keeping the clouds and storms around to begin the work week. By Wednesday a more vigorous front will sweep across Virginia before stalling along the East Coast. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s with sticky humidity through midweek, accompanied by more storms. Following that second front drier and cooler air is on the way for the end of the week. 

Some good news will come from this pattern switch in that much needed rain is on the way. Here's a map of the expected rain totals through Friday morning:

In the meantime keep those weather warning sources (NOAA weather radio, local radio/TV, smartphone apps, etc) handy. More storms could mean more damage and power outages.

Heat, humidity, poor air quality, and storms...whew, what a weekend forecast!

The National Weather Service office in Wakefield has issued an Air Quality Alert for today (Friday). The smoke from Canadian wildfires has made its way to the surface where folks will be breathing in particulates. Outdoor activities may need to be curtailed today, especially for those who have breathing difficulties or are sensitive to allergens. Here's an air quality map showing conditions at 7 o'clock this morning (black star indicates Mecklenburg County):

The only "benefit" to the smoke is that it will reduce the heat available from the sun's rays. Temperatures today will top out in the mid-90s rather than challenging the triple digit mark. In addition, a "cold" front looks to push just south of the state line. That will lower dew points slightly, lessening that sticky feeling to the air by just a bit.

On Saturday that boundary will lift back northward as a warm front, carrying much of the near-surface smoke with it. Thus the air should be easier to breathe tomorrow. Both dew points and temperatures will be on the rise tomorrow, with local thermometers topping out in the upper 90s during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center also has the region under a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe storms for late Saturday afternoon into the evening.

Another "cold" front will approach from the west on Sunday, bringing chances of more severe storms as that boundary interacts with the steamy conditions across the area. Sunday afternoon temperatures across Mecklenburg County look to top out in the low 90s before any storms arrive. In addition to lightning and localized flooding, the chief storm threat both Saturday and Sunday will be damaging straight-line winds.

To recap: minimize outdoor activities Friday, and keep eyes on and ears out for the possibility of storms Saturday and Sunday. If storms approach take shelter in a sturdy building. 

An addition to midsummer conditions: wildfire smoke

This (Wednesday) morning's sunrise was tinted more orange than normal thanks to wildfire smoke aloft in the atmosphere. This color satellite loop shows a band of smoke draped from the Midwestern states southeast across Virginia and out over the Atlantic:

The smoke is from wildfires burning across the Canadian province of Ontario. It is being lofted into the upper air and is then being pushed south along the edge of a high pressure system. For the next couple of days the smoke looks to remain overhead, but it will eventually mix down to the surface. Expect a smoky smell by Friday to accompany colorful sunrises and sunsets and lead to a reduction in air quality.

This morning began with temperatures in the low to mid-60s across Mecklenburg County. Despite forecast highs in the mid-90s this afternoon, the dew points will remain in the relatively comfortable range. Thus the "stickiness factor" won't be too bad today. Tomorrow both temperatures and dew points will be higher so expect more uncomfortable conditions. 

That said, the high temperature forecasts in the upper 90s for the latter half of this week could be a bit high. That wildfire smoke may block enough sunlight to reduce those daily highs by a few degrees. The numerical weather forecast models don't always account for such limitations. However, high humidity levels will still be a factor.

Monday showers and clear skies Tuesday

The weekend's "cold" front is still near enough to keep clouds and showers sticking around today (Monday). Another tenth to a quarter-inch of liquid is forecast to collect in Mecklenburg County rain gauges today, with a couple of localities possibly seeing more from scattered thunderstorms. An easterly breeze plus the overcast skies will keep temperatures in the low 80s this afternoon.

Tuesday will begin with clearing skies and a sunrise temperature in the mid-60s. Tomorrow looks like the bonus day of the work week with typical July afternoon highs in the upper 80s. Dew points will be lower than today, and thus the humidity levels will be more comfortable.

Meanwhile, the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake water level remains much lower than the past couple of summers. This graphic compares this year's levels (blue shade) with those of 2024 and 2025:

Upcoming weather conditions the rest of this work week won't boost these numbers, with dry weather and increasing heat on the way. Mecklenburg County could even see a return to triple digit temperatures later this week. Stay tuned!

More showers and cool conditions to begin the week, then the heat returns

A backdoor cold front slid south through Mecklenburg County Saturday and is now parked near the I-40 corridor in North Carolina. Overcast skies, showers, and a northerly breeze will keep today's - Sunday's - high temperatures down to the low 80s. The clouds will linger throughout tonight, with rain chances remaining likely. A few rumbles of thunder may roll through the area as well.

Monday will begin the work week with more clouds, showers, and storms. Tomorrow will be much cooler than the average 90º for mid-July, with afternoon highs topping out only in the mid- to upper 70s. Rain chances will begin to dwindle during the evening hours, and Tuesday then looks to be sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid-80s as a high pressure system takes charge.

During the latter half of the week summertime heat will build back into the region. Afternoon highs in the 90s will accompany the sunny skies fostered by that high pressure. This graphic shows the anticipated weather hazards for the late week across the country:

In addition to the hazardous heat shading, note the indication of severe weather on Friday for this area. That's pretty far ahead of time, which indicates a strong concern for a setup which could produce severe storms. We'll keep an eye on that as the week progresses.

A showery weekend lies ahead

This current stretch of daily chances of rain would seem to help with the ongoing drought conditions. Unfortunately the scattered showers and storms haven't provided enough liquid to make much of a dent in the situation. In addition to the latest Drought Monitor showing Mecklenburg (among other Virginia counties) under an Extreme Drought, this graphic also emphasizes the dryness as water levels continue to dwindle:

The showers and storms will continue marching across the state today - Friday - through the weekend. However, liquid totals will be spotty with perhaps a half-inch up to an inch collected in local rain gauges by Sunday evening.

After another warm and muggy start in the 70s, today's temperatures will climb into the low 90s ahead of more anticipated storminess. The Storm Prediction Center has the county under yet another Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather, with straight line damaging winds the main threat. Storms could arrive anytime after mid-afternoon, so be alert to changing weather conditions.

By dinnertime Saturday a weak cold front will push south of the area and help fire up more storminess. Tomorrow's afternoon highs will climb to near the 90º mark, with skies remaining at least partly sunny before the rain arrives late afternoon. Clouds and precipitation will then stick around tomorrow night through most of Sunday.

Between the clouds, some rain, and the slightly cooler air behind the boundary, Sunday's temperatures are likely to top out only in the low 80s. That's several degrees below mid-July averages, so enjoy the brief break in the heat. Next week looks to reintroduce the heat!

Sticky, warm, and showery conditions for midweek

July weather is typically hot and sticky, and this week is no exception. A good way to guess how sticky the air is (besides stepping outdoors!) is to check the morning low temperatures. When they don't drop below the 70º mark it's pretty obvious that day will be humid. That's the case today - Wednesday - and will be the same tomorrow.

As far as the showery part goes, Tuesday's random showers and storms mostly missed Mecklenburg County. That said, many localities saw some rain on Monday. Here's the 48 hour precipitation total beginning Monday morning with the four county sites labeled with blue initials:

A backdoor front has slipped south into North Carolina but is still nearby, thus resulting in more clouds than sun today. Temperatures this afternoon look to top out in the upper 80s, and more showers and storms are possible. A couple of storms may bring damaging winds along with downpours, so be alert for any weather warnings that might be issued.

Thursday will be a bit warmer with highs in the low 90s. Showers and storms will be less likely than today, but a couple of sites could see some rain. All in all this is a good example of early July weather.