Slowly crawling out of a wet pattern

A stalled front is dissipating across the Virginia Piedmont this Wednesday morning. Precipitation totals from this boundary and an associated surface low pressure center were impressive by 2026's drought-ridden standards. In the 24 hours since Tuesday morning local rain gauges recorded 1.14", 3.54", 0.70", and 0.96" respectively at Clarksville, Chase City, Boydton, and South Hill.

River and creek levels have responded to these rain totals, rising quickly in some cases. Here's the river level recorded on the Meherrin River near South Hill:

There is a chance of afternoon showers again today, but additional liquid totals will be much lower than those mentioned above. As that front continues to dissipate skies will become partly sunny, with temperatures topping out in the mid-80s this afternoon. The sunset at 8:15 p.m. should be visible and even colorful with a few clouds still hanging around.

High pressure will take charge of local conditions for Thursday, clearing the skies but not scouring away the sticky humidity. Tomorrow morning will begin with temperatures in the low 70s before climbing to near the 90º mark during the afternoon hours. At this point the upcoming weekend looks to be mostly sunny, hot, and dry with only a few scattered showers and storms possible during the afternoon.

Cloudy and showery describes the beginning of the work week

Showers and storms over the past 24 hours deposited spotty amounts of rain in local rain gauges. Mecklenburg County totals as of this Monday morning are shown on this map:

A cold front perched across West Virginia this morning will slide eastward today as its steering mechanism - an upper level trough - moves northeast into Canada. That boundary will stall out across Virginia, firing up showers and a few thunderstorms over the Piedmont. Thus more precipitation is on the way later today, most of which looks to arrive after the dinner hour. 

Although there could be a few peeks of sunshine skies will remain mostly cloudy today, with afternoon temperatures topping out in the mid-80s to accompany the sticky humidity. Tuesday's forecast looks much the same, but with higher rain totals likely. Tomorrow will begin with temperatures near 70º before they top out in the low 80s under the cloud cover.

Showers and storms will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as that cold front hangs up across the Old Dominion and finally dissipates. No severe storms are expected, but keep in mind that lightning and localized flooding are always threats to remain aware of when thunderstorms are in the forecast.

The work week weather in a word? Damp

A low pressure system is spinning around over the Ohio Valley this Sunday morning, with the counterclockwise circulation around it pumping moist air northward into Mecklenburg County. The associated cold front will slowly edge across the Appalachians over the next couple of days, helping to fire up showers and storms. 

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has much of Virginia in a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather today. Rumbles of thunder will become more probable as today progresses, with the heavier stuff looking like it will arrive toward the dinner hour. Overall, today will be cloudy with sticky humidity and temperatures topping out in the mid-80s. 

That low pressure system will move slowly enough to keep showers and storms around the county much of the upcoming work week. Sunshine will be scarce until midweek, and even then the afternoons will likely turn cloudy and wet. This NWS Wakefield graphic shows the precipitation total outlook through Wednesday morning:

However, several numerical forecast models indicate a potential for higher totals for the same period. That's to be expected during the convective season, when rain swaths can be concentrated but narrow as thunderstorms romp through the region.

Temperatures this week will be at or slightly below August normals. This month begins with average afternoon highs in the upper 80s. By the end of the month those values slide slowly to the mid-80s as summer comes to an end.

Happy Sunday!

Is the drought improving?

The answer to the question in the blogpost title is "slightly". Rainfall totals over the past couple of weeks have been spotty, typical of the random nature of summertime thunderstorms. However, this week's Drought Monitor does show progress across Virginia, with the D3 Extreme Drought (red shade) areas having shrunk somewhat.

Unfortunately much of Mecklenburg County is still in that D3 area. 

As July ends and August begins, this weekend's temperatures will remain near long-term averages. The fiercest heat will stay across the western U.S. for now. Pleasant conditions will dominate locally today (Friday) and Saturday, with sunshine and generally calm winds in place. Afternoon highs both days will top out in the upper 80s.

By Sunday a low pressure system and its associated cold front will be approaching the Mid-Atlantic states. Southerly winds ahead of that system will pump in higher humidity, so the latter weekend day will be more humid with chances of afternoon showers and storms. Temperatures will reach the mid-80s under partly sunny skies ahead of the potential rain. 

As that cold front stalls out nearby, next week looks to be cloudier and wet. Hopefully the associated precipitation will be enough to continue improving the dry conditions.

Sunny and less humid conditions for the midweek period

Tuesday's potential for severe weather was indeed reduced to a "nothing-burger" by a rainy morning system across much of the western portions of the state (see Monday's blogpost for a discussion of that possibility). This map from yesterday shows a decided lack of storm reports across Central and Southside Virginia:

Today - Wednesday - the cold front associated with Tuesday's storms has pushed south and east of Mecklenburg County. The air mass following the boundary is drier and somewhat cooler, with the result being sunny skies, lowering humidity, and an afternoon high in the mid-80s. A light northwesterly breeze will reinforce the pleasant weather.

Both Thursday's and Friday's conditions will also reflect this tame late July air mass. After morning lows in the mid-60s local thermometers will register afternoon highs in the mid-80s under sunny skies. The next couple of nights will thus feature pleasant sleeping weather to end the month of July. Enjoy!

Active weather to begin the work week

During the wee hours of this Monday morning South Hill was in the path of a strong thunderstorm which dumped 0.85" of liquid in the airport gauge. Meanwhile, the rest of Mecklenburg County remained dry. Temperatures bottomed out in the upper 60s to near 70 this morning, an indication of how sticky this air mass is.

Debris clouds and fog from that early morning convection will clear away later this morning, allowing sunshine to dominate the weather. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 80s. Despite the region being under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today, most forecast models indicate any storms later today will occur along and east of I-95.

Tonight into Tuesday looks to be a bit more complicated with regard to storms. The Storm Prediction Center has the area under a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe weather tomorrow.

However, there are multiple hints of an early morning mesoscale convective system (MCS) diving southeast across Virginia tomorrow. Such a vigorous convective system would roil the atmosphere, creating uncertainty as to where and how many storms will happen Tuesday afternoon. It would be prudent to keep more than one source of weather warnings (NOAA weather radio, local TV/radio, smartphone apps, etc) handy tomorrow, as well as keeping an eye on the sky.

Look for Tuesday to be mostly cloudy and sticky, with temperatures topping out near 90º. Tomorrow will likely be the most uncomfortable day of this week since cooler and drier air will surge in Wednesday.

An active beginning to a cooler than average week

The jet stream overhead is coming out of the northwest thanks to a long wave trough parked across the Eastern U.S. That circulation is bringing relatively cool July air to Mecklenburg County, with afternoon highs this week topping out in the mid- to upper 80s. Smaller "wrinkles" occurring along that jet stream are known as short waves, which move fairly quickly and create areas of vertical motion in the atmosphere.

The overall effect of these two weather factors will foster thunderstorm development to begin the new week. This 3-panel graphic shows the Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) convective outlooks for today (Sunday) through Tuesday:

After today's high temperature in the mid-80s the first of those disturbances will create the potential for storms to reach the area after sunset. Heavy downpours, strong straight-line winds, and lightning may disturb light sleepers between 9 p.m. and midnight.

Monday's storms will occur earlier, arriving during the afternoon hours. Tuesday then looks to bring the strongest and most widespread convection, which is why the SPC has Virginia under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. Much of Tuesday's potential depends on what and where storms actually occur tomorrow.

The remainder of the week will be dry and pleasant, with daily highs in the 80s following morning lows in the 60s. That's pretty comfortable weather for the last week of July!