Active weather to begin the work week

During the wee hours of this Monday morning South Hill was in the path of a strong thunderstorm which dumped 0.85" of liquid in the airport gauge. Meanwhile, the rest of Mecklenburg County remained dry. Temperatures bottomed out in the upper 60s to near 70 this morning, an indication of how sticky this air mass is.

Debris clouds and fog from that early morning convection will clear away later this morning, allowing sunshine to dominate the weather. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 80s. Despite the region being under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today, most forecast models indicate any storms later today will occur along and east of I-95.

Tonight into Tuesday looks to be a bit more complicated with regard to storms. The Storm Prediction Center has the area under a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe weather tomorrow.

However, there are multiple hints of an early morning mesoscale convective system (MCS) diving southeast across Virginia tomorrow. Such a vigorous convective system would roil the atmosphere, creating uncertainty as to where and how many storms will happen Tuesday afternoon. It would be prudent to keep more than one source of weather warnings (NOAA weather radio, local TV/radio, smartphone apps, etc) handy tomorrow, as well as keeping an eye on the sky.

Look for Tuesday to be mostly cloudy and sticky, with temperatures topping out near 90º. Tomorrow will likely be the most uncomfortable day of this week since cooler and drier air will surge in Wednesday.

An active beginning to a cooler than average week

The jet stream overhead is coming out of the northwest thanks to a long wave trough parked across the Eastern U.S. That circulation is bringing relatively cool July air to Mecklenburg County, with afternoon highs this week topping out in the mid- to upper 80s. Smaller "wrinkles" occurring along that jet stream are known as short waves, which move fairly quickly and create areas of vertical motion in the atmosphere.

The overall effect of these two weather factors will foster thunderstorm development to begin the new week. This 3-panel graphic shows the Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) convective outlooks for today (Sunday) through Tuesday:

After today's high temperature in the mid-80s the first of those disturbances will create the potential for storms to reach the area after sunset. Heavy downpours, strong straight-line winds, and lightning may disturb light sleepers between 9 p.m. and midnight.

Monday's storms will occur earlier, arriving during the afternoon hours. Tuesday then looks to bring the strongest and most widespread convection, which is why the SPC has Virginia under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. Much of Tuesday's potential depends on what and where storms actually occur tomorrow.

The remainder of the week will be dry and pleasant, with daily highs in the 80s following morning lows in the 60s. That's pretty comfortable weather for the last week of July!

A foretaste of fall?

Yes, the blog title is correct. Enough cool air is in place across Mecklenburg County to feel less like summer and more like fall. Even NWS Wakefield feels that way, with this quote coming from their Friday morning forecast discussion: "THE FREE TRIAL OF SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TODAY".

The overall circulation across the U.S. is aiding and abetting this cool snap across the Mid-Atlantic states while the west is baking. This upper air map (~18,000 ft overhead) illustrates:

Today will remain mostly cloudy with a northeasterly breeze as a stationary front remains draped across the Carolinas. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s locally, with a couple of spots possibly reaching 80 degrees this afternoon. Showers will move into the area tonight as a wrinkle of low pressure forms along that boundary to the south.

Saturday looks to begin with thermometers dipping into the low 60s. Clouds and showers will dominate much of the day, although there could be peeks of the sun before it sets at 8:25 p.m. across Buggs Island / Kerr Lake. Rain totals through tomorrow will be in the quarter- to half-inch range, although some forecast models do hint at more than that. The county is still under an Extreme Drought designation per this week's Drought Monitor, so the more rain the better.

Sunday will be the bonus weekend day, starting out in the mid-60s under clear skies. Sunshine will dominate the day and temperatures will top out in the mid-80s. The cool regime will begin to ease out of the area on Monday, with next week looking to bring back typical late July conditions.

Happy Friday!

Midweek storms, plenty of rain(!), and cooler temperatures

The current weather pattern looks to be very wet compared to the persistent drought conditions Mecklenburg County has been dealing with. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch through midnight tonight (Wednesday), and these graphics further illustrate the precipitation potential:

A relatively strong summertime cold front is slowly edging its way across the Appalachian Mountains today. That boundary will fire up more storms as the day progresses, such that the Storm Prediction Center has the local area again under a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe weather. Strong straight line winds and even a small probability of a tornado or two is possible, so heed any weather warnings that may be issued!

Local thermometers will likely only climb a few degrees above this morning's readings, topping out in the mid-80s under cloudy skies. Showers and storms can be expected most of the day and into the overnight hours. Thursday will also be cloudy and wet, with temperatures only topping out in the mid-70s as the cooler air behind the oncoming cold front slowly works its way across Virginia.

At the moment the weather through the first half of the weekend looks to be cloudy, damp, and cool, but sunshine and warmer temperatures are on tap for Sunday. More details on those conditions to come in Friday's blogpost.

The week begins with promise of more storms

A stationary front is perched just south of the VA/NC state line this Monday morning. The resulting conditions for Mecklenburg County include cloud cover and an easterly wind. Humidity levels remain way up in the sticky range.

The combination of the humidity, the proximity of the front, and an upper level disturbance or two will foster thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with damaging winds being the main threat. Of course, heavy rain and lightning could accompany any storms. Temperatures will top out in the mid-80s today.

Tuesday then brings a more substantial severe weather threat. The SPC has the county under a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe weather tomorrow, adding large hail and even a small chance of a tornado to the forecast. Tuesday's high will top out near 90º to go along with the sticky humidity, creating the potential for a triple digit heat index before storms arrive. 

Showers and storms look to continue through Tuesday evening into Wednesday as a relatively strong summertime cold front punches across the Appalachians. Rain totals through Thursday morning may be substantial as shown in this NWS Wakefield forecast graphic:

The rain will be welcome, but pay attention to weather warnings for your location. Remember to take shelter inside a sturdy building if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is broadcast via TV/radio, NOAA weather radio, and/or smartphone apps. Stay weather aware!

Saturday's storm and power outages may be a harbinger of this week's weather

Winds from Saturday's storms downed multiple trees across Mecklenburg County, shutting off power and interrupting Lake Fest in Clarksville. The Storm Prediction Center has issued multiple days of severe weather outlooks starting today (Sunday). Thus more of the same can be expected today and for much of the upcoming work week.

Given a change in the overall weather pattern today also looks to be the warmest of the week. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low 90s, just about average for mid-July. The approach of the first of a couple of "cold" fronts will bring clouds and more storms this afternoon, with another threat of more damaging winds.

That boundary will stall out nearby, keeping the clouds and storms around to begin the work week. By Wednesday a more vigorous front will sweep across Virginia before stalling along the East Coast. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s with sticky humidity through midweek, accompanied by more storms. Following that second front drier and cooler air is on the way for the end of the week. 

Some good news will come from this pattern switch in that much needed rain is on the way. Here's a map of the expected rain totals through Friday morning:

In the meantime keep those weather warning sources (NOAA weather radio, local radio/TV, smartphone apps, etc) handy. More storms could mean more damage and power outages.

Heat, humidity, poor air quality, and storms...whew, what a weekend forecast!

The National Weather Service office in Wakefield has issued an Air Quality Alert for today (Friday). The smoke from Canadian wildfires has made its way to the surface where folks will be breathing in particulates. Outdoor activities may need to be curtailed today, especially for those who have breathing difficulties or are sensitive to allergens. Here's an air quality map showing conditions at 7 o'clock this morning (black star indicates Mecklenburg County):

The only "benefit" to the smoke is that it will reduce the heat available from the sun's rays. Temperatures today will top out in the mid-90s rather than challenging the triple digit mark. In addition, a "cold" front looks to push just south of the state line. That will lower dew points slightly, lessening that sticky feeling to the air by just a bit.

On Saturday that boundary will lift back northward as a warm front, carrying much of the near-surface smoke with it. Thus the air should be easier to breathe tomorrow. Both dew points and temperatures will be on the rise tomorrow, with local thermometers topping out in the upper 90s during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center also has the region under a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe storms for late Saturday afternoon into the evening.

Another "cold" front will approach from the west on Sunday, bringing chances of more severe storms as that boundary interacts with the steamy conditions across the area. Sunday afternoon temperatures across Mecklenburg County look to top out in the low 90s before any storms arrive. In addition to lightning and localized flooding, the chief storm threat both Saturday and Sunday will be damaging straight-line winds.

To recap: minimize outdoor activities Friday, and keep eyes on and ears out for the possibility of storms Saturday and Sunday. If storms approach take shelter in a sturdy building.