The work week begins with heat concerns

Today (Monday), temperatures which began the morning in the low and mid-70s will soar into the mid-90s across Mecklenburg County this afternoon. Meanwhile the humidity will remain in the very uncomfortable range. Those two parameters will combine to make today's Heat Risk map look like this across Virginia:

The heat index looks to breach the century mark this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. After the dinner hour a few showers or storms will be possible as a "cold" front oozes over the Appalachians. That boundary will slowly edge its way across the Piedmont tonight, gradually opening the door to very slightly cooler air.

Tuesday will thus be less hot (hesitate to say "cooler"), with afternoon temperatures stopping their climb at the 90º mark on local thermometers. As a result, although humidity levels will remain sticky tomorrow's Heat Risk map locally will be in the orange range vs. today's angry red shading. 

Oh, and one other note: Tuesday's sunset will be the last day of 2026 with a sunset time of 8:00 p.m. for the Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir dam. Autumn is on the horizon!

Stickiness and shower chances will rule the weekend

Clockwise circulation around strong high pressure over the western states will keep upper level winds coming out of the northwest across Virginia. During summer months this "northwest flow" regime gives rise to multiple storm clusters, which form over the upper Midwest and track southeastward. The exact track of those clusters determines who will or won't see showers and storms.

Enough rain from this weather pattern has fallen across Virginia over the past couple of weeks to provide some relief from the very dry conditions. This week's area Drought Monitor shows improvement, with the red shading of "Extreme Drought" having been removed from Mecklenburg County:

More rain is needed to continue the improvement, but the current forecast doesn't show a lot locally. Showers and storms are possible later today - Friday - into the evening, but liquid totals will be sparse and scattered. What will be the case is a hot and sticky day to end the work week, with afternoon highs nearing the mid-90s and a heat index likely to exceed 100º.

Saturday could be the dampest day of the weekend as a weakening stationary front wobbles around southern Virginia. More clouds than sunshine will prevail tomorrow, with temperatures topping out at or just below the 90º mark. Sunday looks to begin cloudy and damp before skies begin to clear as that boundary edges off the East Coast. Local thermometers will top out in the low 90s on Sunday, with heat indices again likely to top the century mark.

All in all it looks like a typical August weekend!

After dodging the "D" word the midweek period looks calmer

Preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports have labeled the system that crashed through Chicago and the Midwest yesterday a derecho. This graphic shows the path of storm reports from yesterday (Tuesday):

Fortunately those storms weakened and rained themselves out over the Appalachians. The good news was Mecklenburg County was spared the wild weather, but the bad news was that little to no precipitation reached the local area.

Today - Wednesday - will be a bit less humid and thus more comfortable even as local thermometers climb back to the 90º mark. A light northwesterly breeze will stir the air under mostly sunny skies. There is a slim chance of another storm complex (NOT a derecho) crossing the mountains this evening, which could bring some clouds and rain with it. 

Thursday will feature a return of stifling humidity, which - along with afternoon temperatures in the mid-90s - will help boost heat indices to near the century mark. Mostly sunny skies will prevail, accompanied by a light west wind. Then, as a "cold" front begins its approach tomorrow night into Friday more showers and storms will be possible.

This current weather pattern is creating a bit of uncertainty for several numerical weather models. The result is that a number of those model-driven smartphone weather apps may not provide an accurate picture of the forecast. It might be advisable to stay tuned to local TV/radio meteorologists rather than relying on those phone apps. (And having a NOAA weather radio is always a good idea!).

Hot and sticky conditions may foster severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday

The current upper air pattern is in what's known as "northwest flow", with the winds several thousand feet above the surface coming out of the northwest. During the convective summer season this setup can give rise to storm configurations known as mesoscale convective systems (MCS's). Thunderstorms that form over the upper Midwestern states can congeal into large complexes, which are then steered southeast by those upper level winds.

Several MCS's are likely during the first half of this week, but the bulk of their precipitation looks to be wrung out over the Appalachians as shown in this forecast graphic, with the white arrow illustrating the path of these potential complexes:

Nevertheless, there is a chance of severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple of those storm systems could graze Mecklenburg County.

Today - Monday - looks to be dry, hot, and sticky. Local thermometer readings which began the day in the mid-70s will top out in the 90s this afternoon. Morning clouds will clear away, allowing the August sunshine to bake the region. Given the sticky humidity the heat index today will approach the triple digits.

Tuesday and Wednesday will have similar temperatures and humidity, but afternoon and evening showers and storms are more likely both days. Folks will need to keep an eye on the sky and have more than one method of receiving weather warnings that are issued by the National Weather Service. Remember, lightning and localized flooding are threats from any thunderstorm, regardless of whether severe weather is expected.
 

A hot and sticky week ahead

Temperatures today (Sunday) and through most of the upcoming work week will be above the early August average for Mecklenburg County. That said, it won't be as brutally hot as July's heat wave. Daily highs will be in the low to mid-90s through Thursday, when a "cold" front will usher in slightly cooler air.

What will be evident is very sticky humidity. Dew points in the low to mid-70s will add to each day's heat such that the heat index will nudge up to the 100º mark during several afternoons. That level of humidity will also prevent nighttime lows from dropping much below the mid-70s. Thus, the comfort level outdoors - and for those without air conditioning - this week won't be very good.

As far as rain chances go, today and most days this week could bring afternoon and evening showers and storms. Those would be very scattered but could pack a localized punch of strong straight line winds and flooding rain. Speaking of rain, this NWS Wakefield graphic shows liquid amounts reported across their coverage area during the first half of this past week. 

Mecklenburg County (inside the blue oval) totals were much less than areas just north and east, indicating the somewhat capricious nature of summertime convection. Much more rain is needed to break the grip of the ongoing drought, but anything is welcome!

The 90s are back, the 90s are back!!

As mentioned in Wednesday's blogpost the recent wet pattern has slowly dried. The weathermaker over the next several days will be a typical summertime Bermuda High. This morning's visible satellite loop shows that feature plainly as the large clockwise swirl of clouds fringing the center of the circulation out over the Atlantic:

The western edge of that circulation is pumping heat and humidity northward. The result for Mecklenburg County will be a stretch of typically hot and sticky August conditions. This - Friday - morning's lows near 70º will top out in the low 90s under sunny skies, accompanied by humid southwesterly breezes.

The weekend looks to feature mostly sunny skies with a slim chance of afternoon showers or storms. Both days will begin with local thermometer readings in the sticky mid-70s before climbing to afternoon highs in the low 90s. The heat index will top out near the century mark each day, so practice heat safety and drink plenty of liquids.

Happy Friday!

Slowly crawling out of a wet pattern

A stalled front is dissipating across the Virginia Piedmont this Wednesday morning. Precipitation totals from this boundary and an associated surface low pressure center were impressive by 2026's drought-ridden standards. In the 24 hours since Tuesday morning local rain gauges recorded 1.14", 3.54", 0.70", and 0.96" respectively at Clarksville, Chase City, Boydton, and South Hill.

River and creek levels have responded to these rain totals, rising quickly in some cases. Here's the river level recorded on the Meherrin River near South Hill:

There is a chance of afternoon showers again today, but additional liquid totals will be much lower than those mentioned above. As that front continues to dissipate skies will become partly sunny, with temperatures topping out in the mid-80s this afternoon. The sunset at 8:15 p.m. should be visible and even colorful with a few clouds still hanging around.

High pressure will take charge of local conditions for Thursday, clearing the skies but not scouring away the sticky humidity. Tomorrow morning will begin with temperatures in the low 70s before climbing to near the 90º mark during the afternoon hours. At this point the upcoming weekend looks to be mostly sunny, hot, and dry with only a few scattered showers and storms possible during the afternoon.