A near miss nor'easter, and warmer conditions ahead

The powerful nor'easter battering the DC/Baltimore area and points north of there is jogging west toward a New Jersey landfall as this is written. The counter-clockwise air flow around the center is dragging some remnant moisture southward, which is the source of the clouds over eastern Mecklenburg County this Sunday morning. Those northerly winds will gust up to 15 mph this afternoon, but most of today the breezes will be gentler as temperatures top out in the upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.

The upcoming work week weather also looks to bring mostly sunny skies as high pressure sprawls across the eastern half of the nation. Afternoon high temperatures will start the week in the upper 70s before climbing back into the 80s by midweek. Morning lows will still dip into the upper 50s and low 60s, representative of lower dew points and thus less humidity than the summer stickiness.

Unfortunately, given the continued drought, no precipitation is in the forecast until possibly next weekend. Typically the autumn months hold a chance of receiving rain locally from the remnants of tropical systems pushing ashore, but the increasingly strong El Nino has clamped a lid on Atlantic systems. The opposite is true for the eastern Pacific basin, with that hurricane season being supercharged by the El Nino weather pattern. Here's a current look at the contrasts:

Hopefully as the autumn progresses the rains will return and recharge the rivers, lakes, and soil moisture. At the moment, however, the drought is still entrenched across the region.

Awesome autumn weather for the weekend despite a developing nor'easter

A lot of media attention has focused on a developing storm east of the Atlantic coastline. Looking to the east this morning, the cloud line is associated with that storm. Effects of this nor'easter on local weather will amount to winds gusting up to 20 mph today - Friday - but no rain. Mecklenburg County skies will remain generally sunny, but some clouds may poke westward over the next few days.

This graphic shows Friday morning low temperatures across the region:

Temperatures were at or near the 50º mark locally this morning, several degrees below the average for this date. Note the green shading across the Tidewater area. That's associated with a coastal flood warning. The northeast winds from the storm are pushing ocean water westward, inundating some of the low-lying land areas.

Thermometer readings will remain below late September averages (lows in the upper 50s, highs near 80º) throughout the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday look to be "Chamber of Commerce" days, with mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs in the mid-70s. Northerly breezes will calm down as that storm slowly moves northward, leaving behind just enough wind to gently stir the air.

Enjoy!

An overview of the week to come

At 8:05 p.m. Tuesday astronomical autumn will officially begin. And after today's (Sunday's) highs in the upper 80s the weather conditions will start to match the calendar. 

Today will feature mostly sunny skies, but an approaching storm system and its associated cold front will foster scattered showers late this afternoon. That cold front looks to take its sweet time edging through Mecklenburg County, such that Monday will still be warm and sticky with highs in the mid-80s. There could be some strong to severe storms late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours as a result of that boundary's passage.

After that, conditions during the rest of the work week will reflect the arrival of a cold air damming wedge. High pressure crossing the New England states will force cool moist air southward across the Piedmont, bringing showers, cloudy skies, and much cooler air for most of the week. Daily high temperatures will sag into the upper 70s Tuesday before dropping all the way to near 70º(!) by Wednesday.

Meanwhile, repeated rounds of rain could total up to several inches across Virginia through Friday morning as shown in this forecast graphic:

 Brace for a change to fall weather!

A short autumn interlude to begin the week

A "cold" front worked its way through Mecklenburg County near the 4 o'clock hour this Monday morning, swapping the light breezes around out of the north. Although today's high temperatures will still reach the upper 80s under sunny skies, the air mass trailing the boundary contains significantly lower dew points. As of this writing those values are in the sticky upper 60s, but they will drop all day to provide a much less humid start to the work week.

Overnight those dew points will drop into the low 50s, providing some drier and cooler conditions for pleasant sleeping weather. Tuesday will thus begin with temperatures in the mid-50s ahead of afternoon highs that will touch the low 80s. Northerly breezes will continue tomorrow, keeping the air stirred and making for a comfortable day under more sunny skies.

Unfortunately summer weather will claw its way back into the region as the week progresses. In fact, the 6-10 day outlook shows continued above average temperatures across much of the country including Virginia:

Note: Due to personal schedules blogposts over the next week or so will be intermittent. Although the weather looks to be mostly calm during this period, should anything unusual crop up there may be a post or two about it.

A break from the "stickies" is forthcoming this week

Some locations around Mecklenburg County received more rain Saturday than originally thought, thanks to some slow moving storms. Totals of 1.53", 1.23", 1.79", and 0.94" were recorded in rain gauges at Clarksville, Chase City, Boydton, and South Hill respectively. While those amounts increased stream flows and may briefly raise the level of Buggs Island / Kerr Lake, it wasn't enough to recharge the groundwater and replenish soil moisture.

Meanwhile, the high dew points will "stick" around today (Sunday) as evidenced by temperatures only dropping into the low 70s by dawn. Another hot and sticky day is in store as local thermometers look to again register highs near the 90º mark this afternoon. That's several degrees above the average for the second Sunday of September. 

Relief is on the way, however. The blue "H" over the Great Lakes region in this forecast graphic for Monday morning represents drier and somewhat cooler air which will move into the area tomorrow. 

The first half of the upcoming work week will thus feature sunny skies. Morning temperatures in the upper 50s and afternoon maxima in the low to mid-80s will feel more like September should. Unfortunately for autumn weather lovers next weekend will bring another round of summer-like heat and humidity.

Damp weekend ahead, but the rain is needed

Should there be any doubt that there's an ongoing drought, this graphic illustrates the low streamflows across Virginia as of Thursday:

This is one reason why a forecast for rain this weekend should be welcome, even if it does dampen outdoor plans. Precipitation totals across Mecklenburg County by Monday morning will be in the half-inch to an inch range.

A "cold" front is crossing the Appalachian Mountains this morning and will skid to a stop along the Virginia / North Carolina state line. That nearby boundary will foster showers and a few gusty thunderstorms this Friday afternoon, just after local thermometers top out in the lower 90s. Rain chances will continue until the midnight hour, after which patchy fog is possible atop the wet ground.

Saturday will dawn under mostly cloudy skies with temperatures starting the day near 70º. Additional showers and storms look to hold off until later in the afternoon. Tomorrow's highs will reach the upper 80s accompanied by even stickier air than today's conditions.

Sunday's weather will be similar to tomorrow's, albeit with more peeks of sunshine. Afternoon temperatures and humidity will again mean the sticky upper 80s for highs. Sunday evening the next "cold" front will push through, bringing lower humidity and somewhat cooler air to begin the work week.

Another brief taste of autumn

Mecklenburg County temperatures at this point in September range from morning lows in the mid-60s to afternoon maxima in the mid-80s. Both yesterday and today (Wednesday) the morning lows dipped to near the 60º mark, thanks to drier air and clear skies overnight. The "winner" in this morning's autumn temperature reminder was Clarksville, with 59º registering on a local thermometer.

Unfortunately for cool weather lovers this brief taste of autumn won't last. The high pressure system which brought the lower humidity and temperatures is moving off the coast today, opening the door for warmer and moister air to return. This graphic shows the afternoon highs expected across the lower 48 states today, with the yellow and red shadings indicating above average temperatures:

Locally, highs today will climb back to near the 90º mark under sunny skies. Tonight, thermometers will drop only into the upper 60s thanks to higher humidity holding in the day's warmth. Thursday will then remind folks of August's heat, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-90s along with breezy southwesterly winds.

By Friday afternoon the next cold front will be close enough to trigger showers and storms as the weekend approaches. The next blog post will take a closer look at the overall weekend weather.