More glorious autumn weather to start the work week

Mecklenburg County thermometers registered temperatures in the low to mid-40s this Monday morning. Those readings will climb into the upper 60s this afternoon under clear skies, featuring the bright blue hue that has dominated sky color for the past several weeks. Northwesterly breezes will stir the air today, gusting up to 20 mph at times as a dry cold front pushes through the area.

Tuesday's conditions look like a "rinse and repeat" setup. Tomorrow morning's temperatures will be a few degrees lower as the cool air behind that cold front settles in. Readings will bottom out in the upper 30s by the time the sun rises at 6:46 a.m. But the afternoon will feature temperatures at or above the 70º mark under more bright blue skies.

The much-ballyhooed El Nino will impact several factors that affect local weather. A primary factor that forecasters will keep an eye on this winter is the positioning of and interaction between the polar jet stream and the subtropical jet stream. As of this morning this is the general positioning of those two wind corridors, with Mecklenburg County located under the white star:

When these jet streams "phase" (i.e. meet up and join forces) winter storms are possible. The location and strength of this phasing determines how strong the overall storm will be and how much wintry weather it could bring. Slight variations in such setups can produce wildly different conditions across this part of the country. 

El Nino is a large-scale atmospheric pattern which affects global weather, but it doesn't provide slam-dunk winter forecasts. Thus, any long range forecasts (more than a few days ahead) of snow or ice for Mecklenburg County should be eyed with caution. 

The beginnings of another mild week, but a cooldown is on the horizon

Sunday morning temperatures dipped into the mid- and upper 30s around Mecklenburg County. That's cool enough for frost to form in some colder locales(!). But by this afternoon those temperatures will climb into the mid-60s under sunny skies.

The pattern of chilly mornings followed by mild afternoons will continue through midweek, but a major change is on the way as next weekend approaches. A large low pressure center crossing the eastern half of the nation will usher in clouds and showers to the local area by Thursday afternoon. Behind that system much colder air will be yanked southward out of Canada.

Temperatures on Friday leading into next weekend will only top out in the low to mid-50s, ten degrees below the mid-November average. Morning lows could easily dip below the freezing mark thanks to that cold air mass. And forecasts for West Virginia on Friday even contain the "s" word on Friday, with the Appalachians squeezing out enough remnant moisture to mix with the colder air:

So if folks hear about snow in the forecast realize it's for areas well to the west of Mecklenburg County. Things could change by the end of the work week, but it's highly doubtful that this batch of white stuff will make it east of the Blue Ridge crest. 

Clouds and showers Friday, followed by a sunny and cool weekend

A stalled cold front is dividing the Old Dominion in two this Friday morning as indicated by the blue line on this map of surface conditions:

West of the boundary cooler and drier air is filtering in on northwesterly winds, while east of the line southerly winds and sticky humidity is holding fast. Early morning showers have moved north of Mecklenburg County, with a rain gauge in Boydton seeing the most from this system with 0.82" so far.

As the boundary slowly oozes eastward more rain is on the way this afternoon. A "wrinkle" of low pressure along the front is currently fostering a cluster of showers and thunderstorms near Charlotte NC. That cluster will zoom toward the local area this morning, arriving near the lunch hour. Temperatures this afternoon will top out near 70º, and local rain gauges will collect another quarter- to half-inch of liquid.

This evening a stronger cold front will cross the Appalachians, bulldozing the stalled boundary and stickiness off the coast. Much cooler air will arrive overnight on northwesterly breezes, and Saturday will dawn under clear skies with local thermometers dipping into the upper 40s. Tomorrow looks to be a delightfully sunny day with highs in the low 60s. Sunday morning could bring a hint of frost before warming into the mid-60s under more clear skies.

Midweek warmth will be accompanied by precipitation chances

Today - Wednesday - morning fog has been widespread across Southside Virginia. Dew points creeping upward and overnight temperatures sagging downward caused those two parameters to match. That resulted in water vapor near the ground to condense into droplets, thus forming fog. But as this post is being crafted the fog is mixing out (not "burning off") and sunshine is becoming prominent.

Under sunny skies local thermometers will climb from this morning's readings near 50º to afternoon highs in the upper 70s. Both those values are ten degrees higher than early November averages for Mecklenburg County. Sunset at the Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir dam will then occur at 5:13 p.m. for those not yet adjusted to Eastern Standard Time.

The next weather-maker on the horizon is a storm system pushing almost due north across the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front with it. Ahead of that boundary southerly breezes will bring more warmth and moisture into the county. Tonight will thus be mostly cloudy, and under that blanket temperatures will only drop into the low 60s by dawn Thursday. Tomorrow afternoon's readings will top out again in the upper 70s under mostly cloudy skies.

There could be a few showers around early tomorrow, but a better chance of rain will arrive near the dinner hour as that cold front crosses the Blue Ridge and begins to stall out across the Piedmont. There may even be some rumbles of thunder Thursday night into Friday. The final day of the work week looks to be damp, with some much-needed rain expected:

And the weekend? It's looking dry and cooler with seasonable temperatures.

Monday morning showers will give way to afternoon sun

An upper level trough crossing Virginia this morning plus a small "wrinkle" in the wind flow are both helping to squeeze out a small amount of rain. This wasn't well-forecasted by the weather models over this past weekend. The circled area on this 500 millibar (about 18,000 feet overhead) chart indicates the location of that wrinkle at 10 o'clock this Monday morning:

Local rain gauges won't record much liquid from these showers, and the sun will begin to peek through the clouds after the lunch hour. Temperatures today will top out in the mid-60s.

Tuesday will dawn under partly cloudy skies, and thermometers around Mecklenburg County will start the day in the mid-40s before climbing into the mid-70s for afternoon highs. Wednesday then looks to be slightly warmer with abundant sunshine. Better chances of rain will arrive during the latter half of the work week as the next storm system works its way closer to the region.

A warmer and drier November appears likely

Today - Sunday, November 1st - will be only partly sunny as a northeasterly breeze brings in cool moist air from off the Atlantic, fostering a layer of low clouds. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the mid- to upper 60s. That's just about average for the beginning of this month. By the end of the month that average drops ten degrees to the mid- and upper 50s.

The long range outlook for November looks warmer and drier than average as shown on this graphic from the Climate Prediction Center:

Such projections are subject to change, so take them with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile, the upcoming work week will start out sunny and warmer. Monday will feature decreasing cloud cover and afternoon highs in the upper 60s, but Tuesday and Wednesday both look to be sunny with local thermometers topping out in the mid-70s. Rain is finally in the forecast for the latter part of the week.

For those waiting for winter conditions there are strong indications of a split in the polar vortex coming soon. That would allow much colder air to plunge southward sometime after Thanksgiving. There's no guarantee that the arctic stuff will invade the U.S., but stay tuned for updates on that.

A brief reintroduction to the 80s before turning cooler over the weekend

Thought the 80s were finished for 2026? Nope! This (Friday) afternoon there's a good chance that Mecklenburg County thermometers will climb to that mark. Thanks to high pressure overhead providing clear skies and light winds, the late October sunshine will heat the area to well above average temperatures. That's before a dry cold front pushes through by the dinner hour.

Much cooler air behind that boundary will make its way into the area overnight. Saturday then looks almost chilly in comparison, with highs in the mid-60s being just about the average for late October. The morning hours will be mostly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase tomorrow afternoon. For those Halloween trick-or-treaters temperatures will drop to the 60º mark by sunset at 6:17 p.m.

The other item to factor in on Saturday night is the switch back to Eastern Standard Time (EST). Officially this occurs at 2:00 a.m. Sunday morning...which then instantly becomes 1:00 a.m., thus gaining back the hour lost in the spring to Daylight Saving Time. Most modern timepieces will change automatically, but for those that don't:

For a bit this past week it looked like Sunday could bring some rain, but that no longer appears likely. The latter weekend day will begin with sunrise at 6:37 a.m. EST at the Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir dam, and temperatures will be in the low 40s. Skies will be only partly sunny with easterly winds bringing in low clouds from off the Atlantic. After afternoon highs again topping out in the mid-60s the first sunset of November will then occur at 5:16 p.m.

Happy Halloween!