Hot and sticky conditions may foster severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday

The current upper air pattern is in what's known as "northwest flow", with the winds several thousand feet above the surface coming out of the northwest. During the convective summer season this setup can give rise to storm configurations known as mesoscale convective systems (MCS's). Thunderstorms that form over the upper Midwestern states can congeal into large complexes, which are then steered southeast by those upper level winds.

Several MCS's are likely during the first half of this week, but the bulk of their precipitation looks to be wrung out over the Appalachians as shown in this forecast graphic, with the white arrow illustrating the path of these potential complexes:

Nevertheless, there is a chance of severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple of those storm systems could graze Mecklenburg County.

Today - Monday - looks to be dry, hot, and sticky. Local thermometer readings which began the day in the mid-70s will top out in the 90s this afternoon. Morning clouds will clear away, allowing the August sunshine to bake the region. Given the sticky humidity the heat index today will approach the triple digits.

Tuesday and Wednesday will have similar temperatures and humidity, but afternoon and evening showers and storms are more likely both days. Folks will need to keep an eye on the sky and have more than one method of receiving weather warnings that are issued by the National Weather Service. Remember, lightning and localized flooding are threats from any thunderstorm, regardless of whether severe weather is expected.
 

A hot and sticky week ahead

Temperatures today (Sunday) and through most of the upcoming work week will be above the early August average for Mecklenburg County. That said, it won't be as brutally hot as July's heat wave. Daily highs will be in the low to mid-90s through Thursday, when a "cold" front will usher in slightly cooler air.

What will be evident is very sticky humidity. Dew points in the low to mid-70s will add to each day's heat such that the heat index will nudge up to the 100º mark during several afternoons. That level of humidity will also prevent nighttime lows from dropping much below the mid-70s. Thus, the comfort level outdoors - and for those without air conditioning - this week won't be very good.

As far as rain chances go, today and most days this week could bring afternoon and evening showers and storms. Those would be very scattered but could pack a localized punch of strong straight line winds and flooding rain. Speaking of rain, this NWS Wakefield graphic shows liquid amounts reported across their coverage area during the first half of this past week. 

Mecklenburg County (inside the blue oval) totals were much less than areas just north and east, indicating the somewhat capricious nature of summertime convection. Much more rain is needed to break the grip of the ongoing drought, but anything is welcome!

The 90s are back, the 90s are back!!

As mentioned in Wednesday's blogpost the recent wet pattern has slowly dried. The weathermaker over the next several days will be a typical summertime Bermuda High. This morning's visible satellite loop shows that feature plainly as the large clockwise swirl of clouds fringing the center of the circulation out over the Atlantic:

The western edge of that circulation is pumping heat and humidity northward. The result for Mecklenburg County will be a stretch of typically hot and sticky August conditions. This - Friday - morning's lows near 70º will top out in the low 90s under sunny skies, accompanied by humid southwesterly breezes.

The weekend looks to feature mostly sunny skies with a slim chance of afternoon showers or storms. Both days will begin with local thermometer readings in the sticky mid-70s before climbing to afternoon highs in the low 90s. The heat index will top out near the century mark each day, so practice heat safety and drink plenty of liquids.

Happy Friday!

Slowly crawling out of a wet pattern

A stalled front is dissipating across the Virginia Piedmont this Wednesday morning. Precipitation totals from this boundary and an associated surface low pressure center were impressive by 2026's drought-ridden standards. In the 24 hours since Tuesday morning local rain gauges recorded 1.14", 3.54", 0.70", and 0.96" respectively at Clarksville, Chase City, Boydton, and South Hill.

River and creek levels have responded to these rain totals, rising quickly in some cases. Here's the river level recorded on the Meherrin River near South Hill:

There is a chance of afternoon showers again today, but additional liquid totals will be much lower than those mentioned above. As that front continues to dissipate skies will become partly sunny, with temperatures topping out in the mid-80s this afternoon. The sunset at 8:15 p.m. should be visible and even colorful with a few clouds still hanging around.

High pressure will take charge of local conditions for Thursday, clearing the skies but not scouring away the sticky humidity. Tomorrow morning will begin with temperatures in the low 70s before climbing to near the 90º mark during the afternoon hours. At this point the upcoming weekend looks to be mostly sunny, hot, and dry with only a few scattered showers and storms possible during the afternoon.

Cloudy and showery describes the beginning of the work week

Showers and storms over the past 24 hours deposited spotty amounts of rain in local rain gauges. Mecklenburg County totals as of this Monday morning are shown on this map:

A cold front perched across West Virginia this morning will slide eastward today as its steering mechanism - an upper level trough - moves northeast into Canada. That boundary will stall out across Virginia, firing up showers and a few thunderstorms over the Piedmont. Thus more precipitation is on the way later today, most of which looks to arrive after the dinner hour. 

Although there could be a few peeks of sunshine skies will remain mostly cloudy today, with afternoon temperatures topping out in the mid-80s to accompany the sticky humidity. Tuesday's forecast looks much the same, but with higher rain totals likely. Tomorrow will begin with temperatures near 70º before they top out in the low 80s under the cloud cover.

Showers and storms will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as that cold front hangs up across the Old Dominion and finally dissipates. No severe storms are expected, but keep in mind that lightning and localized flooding are always threats to remain aware of when thunderstorms are in the forecast.

The work week weather in a word? Damp

A low pressure system is spinning around over the Ohio Valley this Sunday morning, with the counterclockwise circulation around it pumping moist air northward into Mecklenburg County. The associated cold front will slowly edge across the Appalachians over the next couple of days, helping to fire up showers and storms. 

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has much of Virginia in a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather today. Rumbles of thunder will become more probable as today progresses, with the heavier stuff looking like it will arrive toward the dinner hour. Overall, today will be cloudy with sticky humidity and temperatures topping out in the mid-80s. 

That low pressure system will move slowly enough to keep showers and storms around the county much of the upcoming work week. Sunshine will be scarce until midweek, and even then the afternoons will likely turn cloudy and wet. This NWS Wakefield graphic shows the precipitation total outlook through Wednesday morning:

However, several numerical forecast models indicate a potential for higher totals for the same period. That's to be expected during the convective season, when rain swaths can be concentrated but narrow as thunderstorms romp through the region.

Temperatures this week will be at or slightly below August normals. This month begins with average afternoon highs in the upper 80s. By the end of the month those values slide slowly to the mid-80s as summer comes to an end.

Happy Sunday!

Is the drought improving?

The answer to the question in the blogpost title is "slightly". Rainfall totals over the past couple of weeks have been spotty, typical of the random nature of summertime thunderstorms. However, this week's Drought Monitor does show progress across Virginia, with the D3 Extreme Drought (red shade) areas having shrunk somewhat.

Unfortunately much of Mecklenburg County is still in that D3 area. 

As July ends and August begins, this weekend's temperatures will remain near long-term averages. The fiercest heat will stay across the western U.S. for now. Pleasant conditions will dominate locally today (Friday) and Saturday, with sunshine and generally calm winds in place. Afternoon highs both days will top out in the upper 80s.

By Sunday a low pressure system and its associated cold front will be approaching the Mid-Atlantic states. Southerly winds ahead of that system will pump in higher humidity, so the latter weekend day will be more humid with chances of afternoon showers and storms. Temperatures will reach the mid-80s under partly sunny skies ahead of the potential rain. 

As that cold front stalls out nearby, next week looks to be cloudier and wet. Hopefully the associated precipitation will be enough to continue improving the dry conditions.