More "reasonable" February weather lies ahead

Tuesday's high temperature at the airport near South Hill topped out at 66º, a far cry from the recent frigid regime. A cold front which crossed Mecklenburg County before sunrise this Wednesday morning (at 7:07 a.m. in Clarksville) is ushering in cooler - but not really cold - air. Skies will slowly clear as today progresses, becoming partly cloudy after the lunch hour. 

Local thermometers today will top out near 60º during the early afternoon, accompanied by a northwesterly breeze. Overnight, those readings will sag into the upper 20s by dawn as that cooler air filters into the region. Thursday's temperatures will then resemble more typical February conditions, with afternoon highs near 50º under mostly sunny skies.

Peeking ahead at the upcoming weekend Saturday looks to be warm and dry. Sunday will then feature a decent amount of rain (yes, plain ol' rain!) which will help alleviate the ongoing dryness locally. This graphic, showing the total liquid amounts expected through next Monday, illustrates the overall storm track across the southern half of the nation:

Is winter weather behind us? Maybe, maybe not...but the worst of the cold is likely done for the season.

A temperature boost to begin the work week

Monday morning temperatures sagged into the Arctic range once again. Both South Hill and Boydton weather stations recorded lows of 9º just after 6:30 a.m., with accompanying arid dew points adding to the frigid feeling in the air. The good(?) news is that abundant sunshine and calm winds will push this afternoon's temperatures up to the 40º mark, a veritable heat wave compared to recent weeks

That "heat wave" will actually intensify Tuesday as a warm front (red line below) lifts north across most of Virginia. Here's the forecast surface map at 7:00 p.m. tomorrow:

Local thermometers will soar from Tuesday morning lows in the upper 20s to the 60º mark for many locales tomorrow afternoon. That will definitely help the melting process for those stubborn ice and snow patches.

The air behind the cold front (blue line in the graphic) isn't another visitor from the Arctic. Instead, that boundary heralds a return to temperatures closer to February averages for Mecklenburg County. It won't be quite spring-like, but the latter half of the work week will feel balmy compared to the recent deep freeze!

The "morning teens" are just about gone

This - Sunday's - morning's temperatures once again bottomed out in the teens amid the Arctic air mass still covering Mecklenburg County. That looks to be the penultimate (i.e. next to last) bout with this level of chill given a pattern change in the works. The overall jet stream flow will bottle up any more Arctic air invasions, keeping the frigid air well north of the area as this week progresses. 

Clouds will move in this morning as a weak upper air disturbance passes to the south of the area. Winds will be much lighter today (vs. Saturday's gales) as the air pressure gradient relaxes. Local thermometers will top out in the low 30s this afternoon, still a good 15-20 degrees below the average for this date.

Tonight's clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to plunge back into the teens by dawn Monday. That, however, looks to be the last gasp of the current Arctic regime. Under sunny skies and continued light winds tomorrow afternoon's highs around the county will top out in the low 40s. Tuesday will then begin with temperatures in the upper 20s, climbing to near or above the 60º mark during the afternoon.

The remainder of the work week will resemble more typical (i.e. less frigid) February conditions. There will be a couple rounds of precipitation possible, which is good news given the growing drought conditions. Here's the latest Drought Monitor graphic showing the severity:

Hopefully the coming spring will bring enough rain to put a dent in these dry conditions.

A windy weekend, then a pattern flip?

An upper level disturbance over the western Great Lakes region is diving southeastward as this is being written. This latest Alberta Clipper will bring scattered rain and snow showers to Mecklenburg County this Friday afternoon. These systems are typically moisture-starved, so precipitation amounts look to be minimal. 

Meanwhile, air temperatures will climb from the bone-chilling teens this morning into the mid-40s this afternoon. Any flakes that do arrive won't stick to roads or sidewalks, but there could be a dusting on grasses and bushes. Precipitation will shut off when the cold front associated with the clipper pushes through between 9 and 10 o'clock this evening.

Then, during the early morning hours of Saturday a second - reinforcing - cold front will zoom through. That's when the "fun" begins in terms of colder and very breezy conditions. Temperatures tomorrow will only top out in the upper 20s...but that's not the whole story. Very strong winds will accompany this latest Arctic air invasion. 

This graphic shows forecast gusts (in mph) at noon Saturday:

As a result of these blustery conditions wind chills will be 10-15º lower than the air temperatures. Folks venturing outdoors tomorrow should bundle up in layers to prevent frostbite and other cold-related hazards. Wind speeds will then begin to decrease after sunset, which occurs at 5:47 p.m. in Clarksville.

After another frigid start in the low teens Sunday will "warm" into the low 30s, seemingly mild by comparison with Saturday. Much lighter winds and sunny skies will accompany those afternoon highs. Then, a pattern flip looks to take place next week. Temperatures will moderate considerably, with chances of reaching the mid-50s to perhaps even 60º by midweek!

Light wintry mix ahead of another cold weekend

A busy upper air "highway" is keeping conditions unsettled at the surface here in Mecklenburg County. A couple of shortwave troughs zipping across the region this midweek period will bring a mixture of rain and snow, with a slight chance of sleet as well. The wintry precipitation won't amount to much given relatively warm temperatures and a limited amount of available atmospheric moisture.

Skies will be mostly cloudy today (Wednesday), accompanied by a northeasterly breeze generated from a surface low pressure scooting eastward across North Carolina. Afternoon highs will top out near 40º, with local temperatures remaining above freezing until this evening. The snow/sleet combination looks to begin near the dinner hour but won't total up to much. This NWS Wakefield probability graphic shows the area has only about a 30% chance (less than a coin flip) of seeing more than an inch of frozen stuff:

Precipitation will end during the wee hours overnight, and by dawn Thursday skies will be clear. Temperatures will begin the day in the mid-20s, so refreezing of wet surfaces is likely. By tomorrow afternoon local thermometers will again climb to near the 40º mark. Sunshine and a dry northerly wind will aid the melting process.

Then Friday afternoon yet another cold front will cross through, yanking down Arctic air for another cold weekend. This frigid air invasion looks to be brief, and next week then appears to bring relief in the form of more average February temperatures. We can hope!

Will Groundhog Day be a turning point this winter?

The verdict is in: P. Phil has seen its shadow. Does that really mean six more weeks of winter? This graphic likely illustrates a lot of folks' feeling about the issue:

Setting aside the ability of a rodent to predict the weather(!), this - Monday - morning's temperatures around Mecklenburg County bottomed out in the teens. The frigid readings were a result of last night's clear skies, light winds, and the snow-covered ground. The good news is that afternoon highs will climb above freezing to near the 40º mark. Along with light winds and abundant sunshine, the outdoors will feel less glacial later today.

Tuesday morning will start out somewhat less brutal, with local thermometers "only" dipping into the low 20s. Clouds will fill in as the day progresses, and a light southwesterly breeze ahead of the next cold front will bring in warmer air such that afternoon highs tomorrow will top out in the mid-40s. 

Another chance of light precipitation will then move in after dark Tuesday and last into Wednesday night. Mecklenburg County looks to be far enough south that the temperature profile for this event will be warm enough to keep the precipitation as mostly rain. At the moment there is no expectation of accumulating snow locally, but it's something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

Snowstorm's gone and temperatures will warm...slightly

This weekend's snow storm was predominantly a Carolina event as shown on this map of snow depth reports:

One report from the Ivy Hill boat ramp on Buggs Island / Kerr Reservoir measured 5.5", which verifies the original 4-6" forecast that NWS Wakefield had for Mecklenburg County. Given the very dry air there wasn't a lot of moisture available for this storm to work with. However, the very cold temperatures boosted the snow-to-liquid ratio from the typical 10:1 (10 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid) to more like 15-20:1. 

Speaking of temperatures the good news is that after today's (Sunday's) chilly regime things will warm up a bit. This afternoon local thermometers will top out near 30º, accompanied by gusty northwest winds as the now fully developed nor'easter pulls away from the coast. After temperatures Monday morning dip again into the teens, much of the work week will feature afternoon highs in the low 40s. That should help with the melt process.

However, the stubborn pattern of an upper level trough across the eastern half of the nation will keep things unsettled. A series of Alberta clippers will arrive every 48-72 hours, bringing chances of light precipitation. Temperatures for the first one on Wednesday look to be warm enough for mostly a chilly rain, with a wintry mix possible during the overnight hours. Friday's could be much the same, but there may be less moisture available for the disturbance to work with.

Welcome to February!