A mixed weather weekend to begin May

Welcome to May, a month which begins with average high temperatures in the mid-70s and ends with average highs in the low 80s (corresponding morning lows: low 50s rising to low 60s). Today's - Friday's - thermometer readings will climb from the low 40s at dawn to right around 70º this afternoon, a bit cooler than those averages. Winds will be light and skies will be mostly sunny.

A weak cold front will pass through Mecklenburg County after midnight. That boundary will usher in clouds and a chance of showers as Saturday begins. A developing low pressure center scooting northeastward along the coastline will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina by dawn. Given the cloud cover and precipitation the temperature range tomorrow will be rather narrow, starting the morning near 50º and only climbing into the upper 50s for afternoon highs. 

That storm system originally looked like it would bring a decent amount of rain to the county, but liquid totals are now forecast to be less than a quarter-inch locally. That's not good news, especially given this week's Drought Monitor showing more of the region to be in the Extreme Drought (red) category:

The rain will taper off Saturday evening, with clouds clearing away by sunrise on Sunday. The latter weekend day will begin with temperatures in the low 40s, rising to the mid-60s for afternoon highs. A northwest breeze will keep it feeling much cooler than the first Sunday of May.

A midweek precipitation "fizzle"?

The Storm Prediction Center has blanketed most of Virginia with a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today (Wednesday):

A low pressure center will cross northern Virginia later today, dragging a cold front across the state. Temperatures across Mecklenburg County will rise from this morning's upper 50s to at or near 70º this afternoon. Most numerical forecast models are now showing much less rain than was evident in earlier model runs, and the likelihood of strong to severe storms for the local area appears to have decreased. Still, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the sky this afternoon, with an ear tuned to any weather warnings that may be issued.

Although cloudy skies will be the rule, most model forecasts indicate only light showers arriving mid-afternoon. Local rain gauges may be hard-pressed to record even a tenth of an inch of liquid. The bulk of the rain from this system looks to occur near the low pressure center, dowsing areas along and north of I-64.

Once that cold front passes through this evening skies will clear by midnight. Local thermometer readings will drop into the low 50s by dawn Thursday. Tomorrow will then feature sunny skies, a gentle northerly breeze, and afternoon highs in the low 70s. The weather looks to be very pleasant for the final day of April (already??).

Sunny and mild on a somber anniversary

Today - Monday, April 27th - marks the 15th anniversary of the peak of a once-in-a-generation severe weather outbreak. The final day of the deadly 2011 tornado outbreak resulted in over 300 deaths and thousands of injuries across multiple states. This is the Storm Prediction Center's map of the severe reports that day:

Although no tornadoes were reported in Mecklenburg County, next door in Halifax County a tornado caused a death and several injuries.

The good news is that today's weather will be sunny and mild, with afternoon temperatures topping out near 70º. A northerly breeze will keep the cool air coming thanks to high pressure centered across New England. These conditions are much more April-like than Sunday's gloomy weather, which resulted in sub-60 degree high temperatures. That's well below the mid-70s average for late April.

As that high pressure pushes off the coast tonight the next spring-time cold front will begin its approach. That boundary will hang up across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as a low pressure center develops along it. The overall result for Mecklenburg County will be increasing clouds and some showers tomorrow. Rain totals will be light, with temperatures again topping out near the 70º mark.

As that boundary nears the area Wednesday more rain and even thunderstorms are in the forecast. There is only a small chance of strong to severe storms on Hump Day, but the main weather story looks to be the potential for a quarter- to a half-inch of rain. That would be very welcome in these increasingly dry conditions.

A bit of rain Saturday, but more is on the way

Saturday's rainfall didn't amount to a lot, but every little bit helped. The Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport near South Hill "won" the prize, with the rain gauge there registering 0.32". Lighter amounts were recorded at Chase City (0.17"), Boydton (0.24"), and Clarksville (0.16"). To emphasize how dry it has been check out this map of thirty day rainfall totals:

Much of the region - including Mecklenburg County - has seen less than 25% of normal rainfall over the past month. The good news is that more precipitation is on the way this last week of April.

Today - Sunday - skies will be mostly cloudy with temperatures only climbing into the upper 50s. Northerly winds gusting up to 20 mph will keep the outdoors feeling a bit raw, especially after dealing with the recent heat. The cloud cover will thin tonight, and Monday will dawn under mostly clear skies with local thermometers dipping to the mid-40s. Those readings will climb to near 70º during the afternoon hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature another chance of rain as another storm system tracks across the nation's mid-section. Thursday and Friday will both bring sunshine as high pressure takes control of the weather locally. Afternoon temperatures this week look to be in the low to mid-70s.

Summer-like and dry to begin the weekend, spring-like and wet to end it

The 80s are back in the forecast for this Friday afternoon under sunny skies and with light winds. There could be some scattered showers later this afternoon, but the atmosphere is dry enough in Mecklenburg County to cast doubt on those chances. However, a harbinger of change is slowly pushing southwest across the Eastern Shore in the form of a backdoor cold front. 

Saturday looks to begin clear and sunny, but clouds will approach late in the day as that backdoor cold front clashes with a "normal" cold front crossing the Appalachians from the west. Afternoon highs will reach the mid- and upper 80s again tomorrow, just ahead of showers and a few thunderstorms arriving near the five o'clock hour. No severe weather is expected, but lightning is always something to be wary of.

Sunday will then feature a temperature reversal back to spring conditions after that "normal" cold front pushes through. The latter weekend day will see morning thermometer readings in the low 50s, with afternoon highs only climbing to the mid-60s under cloudy skies. Showers are likely most of the day, along with northerly winds gusting up to 15 mph.

Despite dampening weekend outdoor plans this precipitation is good news given the latest Drought Monitor (left panel). This week's graphic shows Extreme Drought conditions (red shade) covering much of Mecklenburg County. Meanwhile the right panel is a forecast of rain totals through Monday morning:

Although more rain could be forthcoming during the middle of next week, it will require much more liquid to alleviate these dry conditions. Fingers crossed that the remainder of the spring season will be wetter. 

Looking ahead to a wetter pattern on this Earth Day

On this Earth Day temperatures will boost into the 80s for afternoon highs. After a couple of chilly days breezes have turned around out of the south today, a direction which typically ushers in warmth and moisture. The warmth is returning but moisture is still lacking, prompting NWS Wakefield to remind folks of the persistent fire danger. 

There may be a brief shower and even a rumble of thunder late this afternoon, but rainfall totals will be scanty. Any remnant clouds will clear away tonight as temperatures drop only into the mid-50s. Thursday then looks to be clear, warm, and less windy, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid-80s.

The upcoming weekend heralds a pattern change, with rainfall becoming more likely across drought-stricken Virginia. This graphic shows the potential liquid totals expected through next Wednesday, with Mecklenburg County at the white star:

This doesn't indicate an overwhelming amount of rain, but it's a start!
 

From heat to frost?!

Too hot last week, and frost possible tomorrow morning...it must be April!!

After morning temperatures in the mid- and upper 30s today (Monday) will see temperatures climb only into the mid-60s, several degrees below average for Mecklenburg County. Sunny skies will turn somewhat cloudier by the lunch hour as a reinforcing cold front pushes through. Winds will again gust up to 25 mph out of the northwest this afternoon behind that boundary.

Those winds will calm after sunset, and under clearing skies temperatures look to plunge to the freezing mark by dawn Tuesday, prompting NWS Wakefield to issue a Freeze Warning. Even sites where temperatures don't drop all the way to 32º can experience frost. This graphic explains how ground temperatures can be even cooler than official readings:

Sensitive vegetation could be endangered tonight.

After that chilly start Tuesday afternoon looks to warm into the upper 60s under sunny skies and with light winds as high pressure moves overhead. By Tuesday night that high pressure center will slide off the coast, turning winds around out of the south.. As a result of that warmer wind direction Wednesday morning won't be quite as cold, with local thermometers dropping only to near the 50º mark.

Continue to be mindful of the very dry conditions. A statewide burn ban prohibits open burning before 4:00 p.m. daily because of the dangers of rapidly spreading fires.