A damp Easter Sunday followed by a dry and cooler week

Happy Easter! The rain associated with an approaching cold front looks to enter Mecklenburg County during the mid-morning hours today. That kept sunrise services dry, but folks attending services later on will need to consider toting an umbrella or two. Temperatures will remain mild much of Sunday, with the daily high topping out in the low 70s during the early afternoon.

Along with the showers there may be rumbles of thunder as the front gets closer. Gusty southwest winds will shift around out of the west after that boundary passes through near the dinner hour. The rain will begin to taper off by sunset, with cooler and drier air moving into the region overnight. The winds will calm somewhat as they turn around to come from the northwest.

Monday will begin with morning lows in the mid-40s under clear skies. Local thermometers will continue to sag into the 40s and even the 30s each morning as the week progresses. The National Weather Service issued this graphic to warn of a possible frost or freeze across the eastern parts of Virginia Wednesday morning:

The upcoming week looks to remain dry with afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s. By next weekend those readings could climb back into the 80s for another early taste of summer(!).

Very warm and dry through Saturday, but Easter Sunday looks wet

This Friday morning is beginning under cloudy skies for most of Mecklenburg County. The overcast should clear away by the lunch hour, with sunshine becoming the rule to begin the first weekend of April. Local thermometers will boost into the low 80s again today, accompanied by southwest breezes gusting over 20 mph at times.

Given the warm moist airmass in place temperatures will only drop into the low 60s by dawn Saturday. Tomorrow's weather look to be a carbon copy of today's, with more sunshine, southwesterly winds, and afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Conditions will then begin to deteriorate Saturday night.

A strong cold front will cross the Appalachians tomorrow night, bringing clouds and showers ahead of significantly cooler air. Those Easter Sunday sunrise services just may get squeezed in before the rain arrives, but clouds will likely prevent seeing much of the sunrise itself. By mid-morning Sunday showers will move in across the entire area and last the remainder of the day, with a possible rumble of thunder Sunday afternoon. 

Here are NWS Wakefield's expected rain totals for this event:

Temperatures Sunday will top out in the low 70s during the early afternoon hours before beginning to drop as the cooler air behind that front filters into the region. Next week will begin with much cooler temperatures.

No foolin' around, April is beginning well above average temperatures

11:00 a.m. UPDATE: The SPC has updated their severe weather outlook for today:

The chances of after dark storms locally has increased a bit, perhaps arriving by 10:00 p.m. this evening. Nothing severe is expected for Mecklenburg County, but gusty winds and lightning are still threats to heed.

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The month of April continues the transition from cold to warm season. Average daily highs in Mecklenburg County begin the month in the upper 60s and climb to the mid-70s by month's end. Those averages are being blown away this week, with local thermometers registering afternoon highs in the mid-80s through Saturday(!).

This level of heat plus accompanying higher dew points tends to give rise to showers and thunderstorms. That could be true later today (Wednesday) for areas north and west of the county. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Virginia under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather as indicated by the dark green shading on this graphic:

However, the chance of afternoon showers or storms today is almost zero for Mecklenburg County. There may be enough remaining activity to foster a bit of rain near midnight, but local rain gauges will likely remain full of pollen rather than liquid.

Thursday looks to be sunny and very warm again, with southerly winds gusting to 15 mph thanks to the clockwise circulation around high pressure centered well out over the Atlantic. The next real chance of rain will hold off until Sunday.

Oh, and this is NOT an April Fools' prank!

Warm air arrives, but lake waters remain chilly

After yet another March cold snap today - Monday - begins a significant warmup. After mild morning lows at or near 50 degrees warm air will pour into Mecklenburg County via gusty southwesterly winds. An upper air disturbance will bring shower chances to northern parts of Virginia today, but locally skies will be mostly sunny with no rain expected. Afternoon highs will climb into the low 70s.

Those gusty southerly breezes will continue throughout tonight and tomorrow. Thermometer readings at dawn Tuesday will be in the upper 50s before boosting to the 80º mark under sunny afternoon skies. Dew points will also rise considerably tomorrow, bringing noticeably higher humidity resulting in less static electricity.

Daily highs in the 80s look to be the rule for the remainder of the week. However, water temperatures of Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir will lag behind since water is much slower to warm up than the ground or the air. This graphic shows the lake temperature trend (left panel) along with a cautionary note about colder water (right panel):

Boaters and fisherfolk eager to take advantage of this warmer weather should be mindful of the hazards associated with the colder waters.

A week's worth of warmup and wetness

Saturday's chill begins to vanish today (Sunday). A large area of high pressure sprawling just off the East Coast will turn light breezes around out of the south, opening the door to warmer air. After morning lows near the 30º mark, local thermometers at Mecklenburg County sites will bump up into the low 60s this afternoon. 

The work week will continue that warming trend, with afternoon highs topping out in the 70s Monday and even the 80s by Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area midweek, but this one won't have quite the same vigor as the last several have. It looks to stall out across Virginia before retreating back north as a warm front late in the week, allowing the 70s and 80s to stick around. 

The result of that stalling boundary will be chances of showers each day from Wednesday into the weekend. No day looks like a washout, and precipitation totals will be light. However, there is hope for some longer term improvement in the drought conditions as indicated on this NOAA graphic, which is for mid-March through the end of June:

Happy Palm Sunday!

Brace for a rude change in the weather today

Don't be fooled by this - Friday - morning's very mild temperatures in the mid-60s. Much cooler air is on the way today. As this post is penned yet another strong cold front is perched on the Virginia / West Virginia state line. A surface low pressure center will form along that boundary before lunch. That feature will then push a backdoor cold front through Mecklenburg County early this afternoon. 

The result will be high temperatures in the upper 70s just after the lunch hour, under mostly sunny skies and with gusty southwest winds. Clouds and showers will quickly move in by mid-afternoon, and those gusty breezes will swap around out of the northeast. The cooler air behind the boundary will drop temperatures into the upper 50s by sunset at 7:33 p.m.

There will be some welcome precipitation from this system, with a quarter- to a half-inch of liquid expected locally per this NWS Wakefield graphic:

This amount of rain won't do much to alleviate the drought conditions, but it will temporarily ease the spring pollen levels by scavenging those nose-offending particles out of the lower atmosphere.

Saturday will be rather chilly by late March standards. Temperatures look to begin the day in the upper 30s, only climbing into the low 50s under sunny skies. Gusty winds will continue out of the north all day tomorrow before finally easing off near sunset. 

Sunday will begin under clear skies, with local thermometers dropping to the freezing mark by dawn. Breezes will pick back up and swap around out of the south, opening the door to warmer air. With added help from strong March sunshine the afternoon hours will warm back into the lower 60s. Not a bad ending to the last weekend of the month!

The temperature rollercoaster continues

The thermometer at the South Hill Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport "wins" the local prize for low temperature this morning, having recorded a 29º reading. Under sunny skies and with light southerly winds county-wide temperatures will boost into the low 60s this afternoon. That's just about the daily average at this point in March.

What isn't average is the continuing lack of spring rains. This graphic shows the very dry conditions of the top one meter (~3 feet) of soil across Virginia as measured by satellite (white star denotes Mecklenburg County):

This doesn't bode well for farms and gardens, especially as the usually drier summer season draws closer.

With a southerly breeze temperatures won't fall as far tonight, only bottoming out in the upper 40s by dawn Thursday. Tomorrow will then rebound into the upper 70s as the March temperature rollercoaster continues. Those southerly winds will also pump in moister air, helping to alleviate the static electricity resulting from today's very dry air.

A cold front approaching on Friday will deliver some rain late in the day, but liquid amounts look to only total about a quarter-inch. Behind that boundary? Yep, another dip in the temperature rollercoaster for the weekend. More on those details in Friday's blogpost.