Summer heat, humidity, and storms...they go together

Hope folks enjoyed the brief cool break this week. A typical late June heat dome is setting up across the central and eastern U.S., and that feature will last a while per these two forecast graphics:

Today's (Friday's) afternoon temperatures will boost into the mid-90s as dew points climb back into the uncomfortable range. Those two factors will lead to chances of storms, a few of which are possible later today and tonight.

By dawn Saturday temperatures will hover near the 70º mark before beginning their march upward into the 90s. Tomorrow afternoon a slow-moving cold front will be draped west-to-east across Virginia. Meanwhile an upper level disturbance will cross the region. That combination has convinced the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe storms over the southeastern third of the state (including Mecklenburg County). 

The chief threat will be damaging straight line winds. Make sure to have at hand at least two methods of receiving weather warnings (an inexpensive NOAA weather radio ought to be one of them). If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued take shelter on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows. 

Saturday night looks to be wet, but by sunrise Sunday (5:57 a.m. at the Kerr Dam) the cloud cover will have thinned out. The latter weekend day will then feature mostly sunny skies with highs again in the 90s. More storms are possible Sunday afternoon, but the threat of severe weather will be less than Saturday's. Even so, remember "If Thunder Roars Head Indoors". Lightning is a bigger threat than many folks realize.

As for next week, temperatures could top the triple digits by Wednesday. Brace for it.

A taste of the 80s before the 90s roar back into town

Ahhhh....feel that? The cool dry air mass behind Tuesday's cold front resulted in a very comfortable Wednesday morning. Chase City won the prize for this morning's coolest temperature of 58º, but other local thermometers weren't much higher. The combination of a northerly breeze and the dry air will keep this afternoon's temperatures in the mid-80s for daily highs. 

Yesterday's cold front passage also triggered showers and storms which were more prolific rain-producers than originally thought. Area rain gauges recorded totals from 0.50" in Boydton to 1.04" in South Hill. And there was at least one storm report of a tree down along Buggs Island Road not far from the dam.

Enjoy this brief cool break, because summer's heat is knocking on the doorstep. Thursday morning low temperatures will be in the low 60s once again, but southerly winds and the high sun angle of late June will combine to boost tomorrow afternoon's highs into the 90s. Humidity levels will also be on the rise, so expect a return of the stickiness factor.

In fact, the next week to ten days looks very warm. These two graphics indicate hazardous heat levels creeping into Virginia early next week and then sticking around through the following weekend:

Another round of storms late Monday into Tuesday

Dew points around Mecklenburg this Monday morning have risen into the low 70s, about ten degrees higher than Sunday's rather comfortable values. The "stickiness quotient" is thus much higher today, especially given forecast afternoon highs in the mid-90s. That moisture, plus a lee trough, plus a cold front slowly edging eastward from the Ohio Valley, has convinced the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe storms today.

Those storms will arrive later this afternoon, likely near the dinner hour. The chief threats will be damaging straight line winds and the always dangerous lightning. Keep at least two weather warning sources at hand, and if a warning is issued take shelter on the lowest floor and away from windows. And remember, "If Thunder Roars, Head Indoors". It doesn't pay to gamble with lightning!

Showers and storms look to continue into the late evening hours as that cold front slowly works its way across Virginia. Then, as a low pressure center develops nearby along the boundary, another round of convection will push through during mid-day Tuesday. Tomorrow will feature mostly cloudy skies until late afternoon, with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s. 

Rain totals won't be impressive from this system, but the hard and dry ground will make it difficult for the water to soak in. That could lead to some localized flooding during torrential downpours. Forecast precipitation totals from this latest system are shown in this graphic from NWS Wakefield:

It's not enough to break the drought, but at this stage any amount helps!

Summer solstice and thunderstorms

This Sunday morning the summer solstice arrived at 4:24 a.m. Since our planet's axis is tilted 23.5º from vertical, this causes the apparent motion of the sun to reach its northernmost point in its journey across Earth's skies on the solstice every June:

Sunrise this morning at the Kerr Lake dam was at 5:55 a.m., and sunset this evening will be at 8:35 p.m. Tomorrow, those times will begin their slow slide toward shorter days.

Meanwhile, today's weather will be very summerish. Under sunny skies temperatures will top out in the low 90s this afternoon, accompanied by fairly comfortable humidity. Tonight, a southerly breeze will usher in higher dew points, with Monday morning temperatures only dipping into the low 70s. 

Tomorrow will be more uncomfortable as local thermometers work their way into the mid- and upper 90s. Gusty southerly winds will pump in more humidity, and a cold front approaching from the west will bring chances of showers and storms during late afternoon into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has Mecklenburg County in a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe weather tomorrow, mainly in the form of strong to damaging straight line winds.

The remainder of the work week looks to be typical late June weather, with off and on chances of storms and afternoon highs around the 90º mark. 

Some midweek rain, but a sunny weekend!

Today's (Friday's) blogpost is a bit later than normal, but there's good weather news! First, Mecklenburg County sites received some welcome rain yesterday and this morning. Totals of 0.35", 0.60", 0.71", and 0.92" were recorded in rain gauges respectively in Chase City, Boydton, Clarksville, and South Hill. That's good news during this dry period.

The moisture from this morning's rain was provided by remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed near the Texas coast and fostered lots of flooding along the Gulf states. This was the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Another round of rain will arrive Monday, but this will be courtesy of a typical mid-latitude low pressure rather than a tropical system.

Meanwhile, both Saturday and Sunday look to feature glorious sunny weather. Tomorrow will begin with temperatures near 60º before afternoon highs climb to the mid-80s. Sunday will be a bit warmer, with local thermometers rising from the mid-60s and topping out in the low 90s. 

And in case folks were wondering, here's the list of 2026 tropical cyclone names for the Atlantic basin:

The return of heat, humidity, and storms

The brief respite from the heat ends today (Wednesday). A warm front has pushed north of the area, allowing a hotter air mass to push in via southwesterly winds. Skies will be sunny today as temperatures climb back into the low 90s this afternoon. Thankfully the dew points will remain in the comfortable range today, so the "stickiness quotient" won't be bad.

Those dew points will rise overnight, however, with Thursday then looking rather miserable. Tomorrow's afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 90s accompanied by stickier conditions. Additionally, the combination of a surface "cold" front crossing the mountains plus an upper level disturbance will tap into the energy available from this heat and humidity. The result will be strong to severe storms late Thursday afternoon into the evening. 

The Storm Prediction Center's outlook for tomorrow has all of Virginia under a level 2 out of 5 risk. The main threat will again be damaging straight line winds, heavy rain, and - of course - lightning. Keep in mind that not every locality could see storms, as illustrated here:

That said, it would be prudent to have more than one way of receiving weather warnings tomorrow in order to take shelter in time. Remember that when a National Weather Service issues a "Warning" it means severe weather is actually happening. Folks should immediately head indoors and stay away from windows and doors. 

Be safe, and be ready for the heat!

Cooler and less humid to begin the work week

Sunday's storms provided wind, thunder, and lightning across Mecklenburg County, but rain totals were scanty. Local gauges recorded less than a tenth of an inch, which will do nothing to alleviate the continued drought conditions. The good news is that the cold front which helped spark those storms scooted through the county during the wee hours of this (Monday) morning, opening the door for cooler and less humid conditions today.

This air mass out of Canada will continue to flow in via northerly and then westerly breezes. Today will thus feel somewhat refreshing, with dew points dropping into the comfortable 50s this afternoon under sunny skies.

Thermometers will top out in the mid-80s this afternoon, just about the average for the middle of June. Tonight could be a time to open up the windows as temperatures drop into the low 60s to go along with the lower humidity.

Tuesday's weather will be similarly comfortable, but cloudy skies will prevail. The aforementioned cold front has stalled out over the Carolinas, and a weak surface low pressure will form along it overnight. That will spread clouds across southern Virginia tomorrow, but no precipitation is expected locally.

Missing the 90s? They'll return midweek!