Wednesday, August 21, 2024

"Augtober" weather

This Wednesday morning's low temperatures of 55, 55, 57, and 56 degrees respectively in Clarksville, Chase City, Boydton, and South Hill were more representative of early October conditions rather than August. And the forecast high in the mid-70s for both this afternoon and on Thursday reinforces that notion. This "Augtober" weather will stick around for several days, gradually warming toward the weekend.

The cooler and drier air mass lying atop Mecklenburg county followed the most recent cold front passage. That's also unusual per recent experience with these late summer boundaries. Instead of stalling across Virginia and the Carolinas that cold front has pushed well off the East Coast. The overall driver for this is the upper setup across the U.S.

This diagram of the upper air flow forecast on Thursday morning shows a classic example of an "Omega block", named for the Greek letter which it resembles:

Upper level low pressure centers are parked over the East and West Coasts, while the middle of the country is under a sprawling high pressure system. This type of setup tends to persist for several days, which is why this week's weather in Mecklenburg county will remain calm, cool, and dry. 

The down side of this very slowly changing pattern is that little or no rain is expected for the next 7-10 days. That will very likely bring back drought across the region. So enjoy the pleasantness outdoors over the next few days but be mindful of the increasingly dry conditions.

 

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