Warmer today, but expectations for the work week may need to be tempered

The brisk winds have lessened and swapped around out of the south today (Sunday). Temperatures around Mecklenburg county this morning were generally in the low 40s with the exception of South Hill, which won the low temperature prize at 39 degrees. Those southerly winds will gust up to 20 mph this afternoon, pumping warmer and moister air into the region. That will result in local thermometers climbing to the low 80s this afternoon.

A weakening cold front will drop south into Virginia on Monday. Ahead of the boundary temperatures look to again rise into the low 80s around the county. Then during the afternoon an upper level disturbance will fire up a few thunderstorms, some of which could reach severe levels. The Storm Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) tomorrow for that possibility:

By Tuesday morning that front will stall out south of the Virginia / North Carolina state line. Several forecast models then indicate a cold air damming setup will take place. Although the official NWS forecast is for afternoon highs on Tuesday to again reach the low 80s, that may be too warm. Tuesday's high will more likely be in the low to mid-70s under mostly cloudy skies, with chances of showers and storms through the evening hours.

By Wednesday that old boundary will begin to lift northward under mostly cloudy skies. Afternoon temperatures may again top out only in the mid-70s, still a few degrees below the forecast high of 80. Sunshine and warmth will then prevail through the latter half of the work week.