This Monday morning a cold front is bisecting Pennsylvania from west to east. That boundary will get nudged southward into the Washington DC area by sunset as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region. Coupled with a lee trough east of the mountains conditions later today will be ripe for thunderstorms, thus the Storm Prediction Center has the eastern half of Virginia under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather.
Meanwhile in Mecklenburg county temperatures will soar into the mid-80s this afternoon. Thunderstorms look to hold off until the early evening hours, but folks should remain weather aware all afternoon. Strong winds and hail are the main threats but flooding shouldn't be a problem. Rain amounts only look to be in the quarter-inch range.
Storms should subside by midnight, with temperatures dropping to near 60 degrees by dawn Tuesday. Then comes the dilemma, with this being the forecast map at 8 o'clock Tuesday morning:
Note the cold front near the Virginia / North Carolina state line, with easterly winds bringing in cool air from off the Atlantic Ocean. This is a classic look of a
cold air damming setup, which complicates weather forecasts in this part of the country. The low level "wedge" which sprawls across the Piedmont is difficult to dislodge.
And, indeed, that boundary doesn't look like it'll move much all day Tuesday. Thus expectations of mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the low 80s tomorrow may need to be tempered (no pun intended). It is very likely that skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with local thermometers registering afternoon readings only in the low to mid-70s around the county. There will also be more chances of showers and storms on Tuesday, but nothing severe is expected.
The cold air damming "hangover" could last into midweek as well, keeping temperatures lower than expected per a couple of numerical models. Wednesday's blogpost will take a closer look at that.
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