A warm front lifted north through Mecklenburg county before dawn today (Wednesday), resulting in very mild air invading the region. Low temperatures this morning were in the upper 50s, a good 25 degrees above the average lows for the end of February. Gusty southerly winds will continue to pump in warmth and moisture ahead of a strong cold front.
Light showers will continue on and off today, with local thermometers climbing to the 70 degree mark this afternoon ahead of the oncoming boundary. Enough ingredients for wild weather are in place that the Storm Prediction Center has most of Virginia under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today. The roughest weather will occur over the mountains, while the chief threat for Mecklenburg county will be potentially damaging straight line winds as that cold front pushes across the state.
A strong line of showers along that boundary will cross the county between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. today, swapping the gusty winds around out of the northwest. Temperatures following the front will drop into the upper 40s by 10:00 p.m. Total liquid amounts in local rain gauges will range between a quarter- and a half-inch as indicated on this NWS Wakefield graphic:
By Thursday morning temperatures will be at or below the freezing mark, topping out in the low 50s during this year's Leap Day (February 29th) afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny tomorrow and the northwest winds look to settle to a more bearable level of 6-8 mph. Thursday night will again bring chilly conditions, with temperatures dropping to the freezing mark by dawn Friday.
Today's potential for severe weather serves as a reminder that next week is Severe Weather Awareness Week here in Virginia. Each weekday will emphasize a different topic, with the annual Tornado Drill occurring next Thursday morning. It's a good idea to brush up on these potentially dangerous weather conditions as spring approaches.
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