Snow arrival and expected totals

Today - Wednesday - the much anticipated mid-February snow storm arrives. Admittedly this storm has been tough to forecast, with significant day-to-day changes in numerical model forecasts. Many snow lovers seem to have been a bit too hawkish, putting considerable trust in some of the wilder model swings which fit their optimistic expectations. Meanwhile seasoned forecasters (like those in the National Weather Service) have actually backed off a bit on totals this morning based on actual trends.

Thus, here's the latest forecast graphic from NWS Wakefield, showing those slightly lowered totals from Clarksville to South Hill. (Note that amounts quickly ramp up east of I-85 and I-95.)

The snow has already begun along the U.S. Route 29 corridor and points west as this is being written. It will arrive in Mecklenburg county later this morning, with two or so inches of white stuff accumulating by sunset. Temperatures won't budge much today from current readings in the mid- and upper 20s, so pretty much every flake will stick instead of melting.

Tonight light snow will continue off and on, adding perhaps another inch to ground level accumulations as the main storm center pulls away from the East Coast. Temperatures will gradually fall into the lower 20s by dawn Thursday, when round two of snow will arrive courtesy of an upper level disturbance zooming eastward across Virginia. That will result in another half-inch or so of white stuff before skies begin to clear near the noon hour.

Thursday afternoon will then feature some sunshine along with brisk northwest winds gusting over 20 mph at times. Temperatures tomorrow look to top out near the freezing mark, so not a lot of melting will occur. A warming trend will begin Friday with afternoon highs of 40º to end the work week, rising into the 50s by Sunday.

Could this be the last gasp of wintry weather? We'll see.