The heat returns in time for the holiday

Temperatures this Wednesday morning bottomed out in the low 60s around Mecklenburg county, a refreshing start to the day. Today will continue the pleasant early July weather, with highs in the upper 80s and decently comfortable humidity. But as a high pressure center slides off the New England coast and drifts south over the Atlantic today, the door will open for more heat and humidity to enter the local weather picture. 

Tomorrow - Independence Day - surface winds will swap around out of the southwest, pumping that ol' Gulf of Mexico heat and moisture back into the area. Temperatures will climb from morning lows in the mid-60s to afternoon highs in the mid-90s around the county. Dew points will also slowly rise, but the heat index looks to remain just below the triple digit mark. Still, folks enjoying those parades and picnics will need to be mindful of the heat risks. 

This is the time of summer when "cold" fronts enter and then stall out across Virginia. Despite the lack of drier air to reduce the stickiness this situation can mean some good news in terms of precipitation. The first in a series of weakening boundaries will cross the Appalachians Thursday and dissipate nearly overhead. Thus the forecast for the next several days entails continued heat and humidity, but with better chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms. Hopefully this will help counter the growing drought conditions.

With the Atlantic hurricane season ramping up it's time for a reminder of what the "forecast cone" really means. Here's Beryl's forecast track:

The cone provides valuable information to warn folks in its path, but with two glaring limitations:

(1) Two-thirds (66% probability) of the time the center of the storm could be anywhere inside that cone. That means one-third (33%) of the time the center could be outside the cone. It is NOT a guarantee that the center will be contained inside the cone.

(2) The cone does NOT indicate how large the storm is or how far away from the center impacts will be felt. This article explains why the size of the storm matters.

Things to keep in mind as the 2024 hurricane season progresses.