A sunny and mild Valentine's Day, but where's winter?

Folks may be wondering where winter is. Rest assured that meteorologists are puzzling over the same thing given that weather prediction models are not behaving consistently. Several recent medium and long range forecasts of Arctic air invasions have been proven incorrect. And this week's snow across the Northeast had forecasters scratching their heads as they watched the storm's forecast track shift significantly not long before the snow arrived. The reasons for this vary, but much of the blame can be laid at the feet of the current El Nino pattern.

The polar jet stream remains shunted up north, keeping the Arctic air locked up well north of its typical winter haunts. Meanwhile the subtropical jet - the one that drags moisture along with it - is dominating conditions across the southern U.S. The tracks of both these upper air currents are characteristic of an El Nino winter as shown in this graphic:

Meanwhile today - Valentine's Day - in Mecklenburg county began with temperatures right around the freezing mark at dawn. This afternoon temperatures will climb into the mid-50s under sunny skies, a couple degrees above average for the date. Winds will be much less raucous today, with local anemometers registering breezes only in the 5-10 mph range.

Skies will remain clear tonight, with temperatures by dawn Thursday again dropping to near freezing. Tomorrow then looks to be even warmer than today, with highs in the low 60s as southwesterly winds pump in air from the Gulf of Mexico. Friday will feature more clouds with a chance of rain Friday night. Areas not far north of Mecklenburg county could see some white stuff by Saturday morning, so we'll keep an eye on that potential.