Mecklenburg County thermometers registered temperatures in the low to mid-40s this Monday morning. Those readings will climb into the upper 60s this afternoon under clear skies, featuring the bright blue hue that has dominated sky color for the past several weeks. Northwesterly breezes will stir the air today, gusting up to 20 mph at times as a dry cold front pushes through the area.
Tuesday's conditions look like a "rinse and repeat" setup. Tomorrow morning's temperatures will be a few degrees lower as the cool air behind that cold front settles in. Readings will bottom out in the upper 30s by the time the sun rises at 6:46 a.m. But the afternoon will feature temperatures at or above the 70ยบ mark under more bright blue skies.
The much-ballyhooed El Nino will impact several factors that affect local weather. A primary factor that forecasters will keep an eye on this winter is the positioning of and interaction between the polar jet stream and the subtropical jet stream. As of this morning this is the general positioning of those two wind corridors, with Mecklenburg County located under the white star:
When these jet streams "phase" (i.e. meet up and join forces) winter storms are possible. The location and strength of this phasing determines how strong the overall storm will be and how much wintry weather it could bring. Slight variations in such setups can produce wildly different conditions across this part of the country.
El Nino is a large-scale atmospheric pattern which affects global weather, but it doesn't provide slam-dunk winter forecasts. Thus, any long range forecasts (more than a few days ahead) of snow or ice for Mecklenburg County should be eyed with caution.
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