The current upper air pattern is in what's known as "northwest flow", with the winds several thousand feet above the surface coming out of the northwest. During the convective summer season this setup can give rise to storm configurations known as mesoscale convective systems (MCS's). Thunderstorms that form over the upper Midwestern states can congeal into large complexes, which are then steered southeast by those upper level winds.
Several MCS's are likely during the first half of this week, but the bulk of their precipitation looks to be wrung out over the Appalachians as shown in this forecast graphic, with the white arrow illustrating the path of these potential complexes:
Today - Monday - looks to be dry, hot, and sticky. Local thermometer readings which began the day in the mid-70s will top out in the 90s this afternoon. Morning clouds will clear away, allowing the August sunshine to bake the region. Given the sticky humidity the heat index today will approach the triple digits.
Tuesday and Wednesday will have similar temperatures and humidity, but afternoon and evening showers and storms are more likely both days. Folks will need to keep an eye on the sky and have more than one method of receiving weather warnings that are issued by the National Weather Service. Remember, lightning and localized flooding are threats from any thunderstorm, regardless of whether severe weather is expected.
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