A short mild break midweek, then a very wintry weekend

Before diving into the wintry weekend forecast, how about a peek at the midweek conditions? Today - Wednesday - and tomorrow will actually provide a mild interlude in this latter half of January. After a cold kickoff in the teens this morning Mecklenburg County sites will warm into the mid-40s later today. Sunny skies and a southerly breeze will help make it feel almost balmy.

Thursday will start with local thermometers "only" dropping to the low 30s before climbing into the low 50s for afternoon highs. Westerly winds behind the first of three approaching cold fronts will stir the air tomorrow. Cold front #2 will then pass through Thursday evening, possibly triggering a few rain showers.

On Friday the "fun" begins as cold front #3 blasts into the region. With highs in the mid-40s light rain will moisten things during the daylight hours, but as Arctic air behind that boundary pours into the area any precipitation will turn to snow Friday night. Then things get a little crazy.

There's plenty of moisture with this upcoming storm, but the temperature profile is still uncertain. In their Wednesday morning forecast discussion NWS Wakefield indicates a high level of uncertainty with respect to what type of wintry precipitation will affect the region. This Weather Prediction Center forecast map portion for 7 o'clock Saturday morning illustrates:

Note that the snow/ice boundary is very near Mecklenburg County (white star). That proximity continues in Sunday morning's forecast graphic. There's a good chance that a "warm nose" of above-freezing air will sneak in over top the colder air near the ground. This graphic shows how that can affect the precipitation type:

So will this coming storm provide all snow or some combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain? That is still in doubt at this point. In any case know that the impacts from this weekend's weather will be significant. Also, VERY cold temperatures (lows in the single digits??) will settle in early next week.