March may well go out like a lion!

The warmth and moisture being pumped into the region between an early season Bermuda High and an approaching storm system could result in severe weather Monday, March 31st. This is the Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook for tomorrow, showing an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for Mecklenburg County:

All the S-L-I-M ingredients will be present in relative abundance: Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture. Thus the potential threats will include damaging straight line winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes. It would be wise to maintain situational awareness and have at least two methods of receiving weather warnings close by (NOAA weather radio, local TV/radio, smartphones, etc.).

Today - Sunday - will be warm even under mostly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs will top out at or near the 80º mark again, and southwesterly winds will gust over 20 mph. Showers will arrive overnight ahead of Monday's main activity. These showers could be a factor in mitigating the severe threat tomorrow if they last long enough to "dampen" (pun intended) the instability.

Showers and thunderstorms Monday could begin as early as the noon hour, with the most intense action arriving during the mid-afternoon hours. Temperatures tomorrow will climb into the upper 70s ahead of the cold front. That boundary will finally push through near midnight, swapping winds around out of the northwest and ushering in cooler and drier air.

Tuesday - April Fools' Day - looks to be more seasonable under mostly sunny skies and with afternoon highs in the mid-60s. By midweek the next large scale storm system will cross the country and approach the area, bringing both more warmth and rainfall. The moisture will be a welcome relief to the recent dry trends.