Wet and wintry weather ahead

Plenty of precipitation is on the docket this week for Mecklenburg county. The actual location of the freezing line - both at the surface and aloft - will dictate the type of precipitation that folks will see, but at the moment it looks like liquid rain will be the dominant form. First, though, today (Monday) will feature partly sunny skies. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the mid-40s thanks to a northerly breeze bringing cool air into the area.

Tonight is when conditions begin to go downhill. The jet stream is shifting from zonal west-to-east flow to a more southwesterly direction. That will allow Gulf moisture to move northward while a storm system takes shape near the Outer Banks. That combination will allow moisture to flow over top the chilly surface air and result in a mixture of precipitation types.

At the moment the forecast for Mecklenburg county is for snow to start around sunrise Tuesday. Temperatures will begin the day just below freezing and will rise into the mid-30s by the afternoon as warmer air sneaks into the area. The snow looks to convert to sleet and freezing rain after lunch as above-freezing temperatures creep in. This graphic describes the types of wintry precipitation:

Eastern parts of the county may skip the freezing rain and go straight from sleet to plain old liquid rain. Meanwhile western and northern sections could see some of that ice accumulating on bushes and trees before the rain. Again, this all depends on exactly where the freezing line both at the surface and aloft is located. A variation of 10 miles either way will shift the frozen precipitation types and amounts.

The official snow/ice forecast for Mecklenburg county is shown on this NWS Wakefield graphic:

Following the early week frozen stuff the period Wednesday into early Thursday then looks to remain very wet, with an inch or more of rain falling on top of whatever snow/ice accumulates. That could lead to localized flooding.

Whew! If this sounds like a complicated (and tricky) forecast...it is! Stay tuned to trusted local weather sources for updates. The wobbling of the freezing line could change the forecast before all is said and done, so check for updates more than once a day.