More "Chamber of Commerce" weather to begin the work week

The center of the powerful nor'easter which has been pounding the Northeast is located just south of Long Island this Monday morning. This visible satellite loop illustrates the size of this monster storm:

As is evident, this system is responsible for the clouds overhead Mecklenburg County this morning. Those clouds look to gradually thin out as the storm continues to move northward today. Locally, skies will turn mostly sunny during the afternoon hours.

After morning minima of 59º from Clarksville to South Hill, temperatures will top out in the upper 70s across the area today. A light westerly breeze will stir the air a bit for another delightful late September day. The sun will set at 7:01 p.m. at the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake dam (the last day of 2026 during which this will occur after 7 o'clock). By that time temperatures will drop to 70º on their way to overnight lows in the lower 60s.

Tuesday will feature a repeat of today's conditions, with afternoon highs maxing out near the 80º mark. Fewer clouds will mar tomorrow's blue skies as the nor'easter pulls away, and calm winds will prevail. Starting Wednesday, the rest of the week looks even warmer so those air conditioners may get more of a workout.

A near miss nor'easter, and warmer conditions ahead

The powerful nor'easter battering the DC/Baltimore area and points north of there is jogging west toward a New Jersey landfall as this is written. The counter-clockwise air flow around the center is dragging some remnant moisture southward, which is the source of the clouds over eastern Mecklenburg County this Sunday morning. Those northerly winds will gust up to 15 mph this afternoon, but most of today the breezes will be gentler as temperatures top out in the upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.

The upcoming work week weather also looks to bring mostly sunny skies as high pressure sprawls across the eastern half of the nation. Afternoon high temperatures will start the week in the upper 70s before climbing back into the 80s by midweek. Morning lows will still dip into the upper 50s and low 60s, representative of lower dew points and thus less humidity than the summer stickiness.

Unfortunately, given the continued drought, no precipitation is in the forecast until possibly next weekend. Typically the autumn months hold a chance of receiving rain locally from the remnants of tropical systems pushing ashore, but the increasingly strong El Nino has clamped a lid on Atlantic systems. The opposite is true for the eastern Pacific basin, with that hurricane season being supercharged by the El Nino weather pattern. Here's a current look at the contrasts:

Hopefully as the autumn progresses the rains will return and recharge the rivers, lakes, and soil moisture. At the moment, however, the drought is still entrenched across the region.

Awesome autumn weather for the weekend despite a developing nor'easter

A lot of media attention has focused on a developing storm east of the Atlantic coastline. Looking to the east this morning, the cloud line is associated with that storm. Effects of this nor'easter on local weather will amount to winds gusting up to 20 mph today - Friday - but no rain. Mecklenburg County skies will remain generally sunny, but some clouds may poke westward over the next few days.

This graphic shows Friday morning low temperatures across the region:

Temperatures were at or near the 50º mark locally this morning, several degrees below the average for this date. Note the green shading across the Tidewater area. That's associated with a coastal flood warning. The northeast winds from the storm are pushing ocean water westward, inundating some of the low-lying land areas.

Thermometer readings will remain below late September averages (lows in the upper 50s, highs near 80º) throughout the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday look to be "Chamber of Commerce" days, with mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs in the mid-70s. Northerly breezes will calm down as that storm slowly moves northward, leaving behind just enough wind to gently stir the air.

Enjoy!

An overview of the week to come

At 8:05 p.m. Tuesday astronomical autumn will officially begin. And after today's (Sunday's) highs in the upper 80s the weather conditions will start to match the calendar. 

Today will feature mostly sunny skies, but an approaching storm system and its associated cold front will foster scattered showers late this afternoon. That cold front looks to take its sweet time edging through Mecklenburg County, such that Monday will still be warm and sticky with highs in the mid-80s. There could be some strong to severe storms late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours as a result of that boundary's passage.

After that, conditions during the rest of the work week will reflect the arrival of a cold air damming wedge. High pressure crossing the New England states will force cool moist air southward across the Piedmont, bringing showers, cloudy skies, and much cooler air for most of the week. Daily high temperatures will sag into the upper 70s Tuesday before dropping all the way to near 70º(!) by Wednesday.

Meanwhile, repeated rounds of rain could total up to several inches across Virginia through Friday morning as shown in this forecast graphic:

 Brace for a change to fall weather!

A short autumn interlude to begin the week

A "cold" front worked its way through Mecklenburg County near the 4 o'clock hour this Monday morning, swapping the light breezes around out of the north. Although today's high temperatures will still reach the upper 80s under sunny skies, the air mass trailing the boundary contains significantly lower dew points. As of this writing those values are in the sticky upper 60s, but they will drop all day to provide a much less humid start to the work week.

Overnight those dew points will drop into the low 50s, providing some drier and cooler conditions for pleasant sleeping weather. Tuesday will thus begin with temperatures in the mid-50s ahead of afternoon highs that will touch the low 80s. Northerly breezes will continue tomorrow, keeping the air stirred and making for a comfortable day under more sunny skies.

Unfortunately summer weather will claw its way back into the region as the week progresses. In fact, the 6-10 day outlook shows continued above average temperatures across much of the country including Virginia:

Note: Due to personal schedules blogposts over the next week or so will be intermittent. Although the weather looks to be mostly calm during this period, should anything unusual crop up there may be a post or two about it.

A break from the "stickies" is forthcoming this week

Some locations around Mecklenburg County received more rain Saturday than originally thought, thanks to some slow moving storms. Totals of 1.53", 1.23", 1.79", and 0.94" were recorded in rain gauges at Clarksville, Chase City, Boydton, and South Hill respectively. While those amounts increased stream flows and may briefly raise the level of Buggs Island / Kerr Lake, it wasn't enough to recharge the groundwater and replenish soil moisture.

Meanwhile, the high dew points will "stick" around today (Sunday) as evidenced by temperatures only dropping into the low 70s by dawn. Another hot and sticky day is in store as local thermometers look to again register highs near the 90º mark this afternoon. That's several degrees above the average for the second Sunday of September. 

Relief is on the way, however. The blue "H" over the Great Lakes region in this forecast graphic for Monday morning represents drier and somewhat cooler air which will move into the area tomorrow. 

The first half of the upcoming work week will thus feature sunny skies. Morning temperatures in the upper 50s and afternoon maxima in the low to mid-80s will feel more like September should. Unfortunately for autumn weather lovers next weekend will bring another round of summer-like heat and humidity.

Damp weekend ahead, but the rain is needed

Should there be any doubt that there's an ongoing drought, this graphic illustrates the low streamflows across Virginia as of Thursday:

This is one reason why a forecast for rain this weekend should be welcome, even if it does dampen outdoor plans. Precipitation totals across Mecklenburg County by Monday morning will be in the half-inch to an inch range.

A "cold" front is crossing the Appalachian Mountains this morning and will skid to a stop along the Virginia / North Carolina state line. That nearby boundary will foster showers and a few gusty thunderstorms this Friday afternoon, just after local thermometers top out in the lower 90s. Rain chances will continue until the midnight hour, after which patchy fog is possible atop the wet ground.

Saturday will dawn under mostly cloudy skies with temperatures starting the day near 70º. Additional showers and storms look to hold off until later in the afternoon. Tomorrow's highs will reach the upper 80s accompanied by even stickier air than today's conditions.

Sunday's weather will be similar to tomorrow's, albeit with more peeks of sunshine. Afternoon temperatures and humidity will again mean the sticky upper 80s for highs. Sunday evening the next "cold" front will push through, bringing lower humidity and somewhat cooler air to begin the work week.

Another brief taste of autumn

Mecklenburg County temperatures at this point in September range from morning lows in the mid-60s to afternoon maxima in the mid-80s. Both yesterday and today (Wednesday) the morning lows dipped to near the 60º mark, thanks to drier air and clear skies overnight. The "winner" in this morning's autumn temperature reminder was Clarksville, with 59º registering on a local thermometer.

Unfortunately for cool weather lovers this brief taste of autumn won't last. The high pressure system which brought the lower humidity and temperatures is moving off the coast today, opening the door for warmer and moister air to return. This graphic shows the afternoon highs expected across the lower 48 states today, with the yellow and red shadings indicating above average temperatures:

Locally, highs today will climb back to near the 90º mark under sunny skies. Tonight, thermometers will drop only into the upper 60s thanks to higher humidity holding in the day's warmth. Thursday will then remind folks of August's heat, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-90s along with breezy southwesterly winds.

By Friday afternoon the next cold front will be close enough to trigger showers and storms as the weekend approaches. The next blog post will take a closer look at the overall weekend weather.

Cloudy and damp Sunday, but lower humidity is on the way

Fortunately, Mecklenburg County seems to have escaped damage from Saturday's storms. The "cold" front which oozed through the area at about 5:30 p.m. yesterday fostered some severe weather south of the state line. As of this Sunday morning that boundary is draped across South Carolina and northern Georgia.

The effect of that "cold" front's southern position would normally be clear skies and sunshine locally. However, a few upper air disturbances will swing southeast across the county today. Thus clouds and showers - with perhaps a thunderstorm or two - will dominate local conditions. Temperatures will top out in the low 80s this afternoon.

The good news for the remainder of this week is that dew points will drop as drier air shoves out the jungle-like humidity that has plagued the region. Labor Day itself will finally feature sunny skies, with morning temperatures in the comfortable low 60s and afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Daily highs will slowly climb back into the 90s by Thursday before another cold front pushes through.

Something to note about this week in September is that the average peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives. The dotted white line on this graphic represents today's date:

But given the much ballyhooed development of a strong El Nino this year's season looks pretty quiet. Let's hope it stays that way. All it takes is one tropical system to ruin someone's day, week, month, or year.

Holiday weekend outlook: Hot & steamy, then damp and cooler, followed by a nice Labor Day

This Friday morning's low temperature readings of 73º-77º around the county are proof of the sticky humidity levels, since moist air is very efficient in holding the previous day's heat. Another round of upper 90s plus heat indices in the triple digit range will characterize this afternoon, which may also be punctuated by strong to severe storms near or after the 5 o'clock hour. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of Virginia under a level two out of the five severe weather categories, so keep an eye on the sky.

Tomorrow will also dawn steamy with temperatures a couple degrees lower than this morning. Afternoon highs in the mid-90s will lead to heat index values again at or above 100º ahead of another round of showers and storms. Just like today, on Saturday the SPC is eyeing the region for more severe weather as a backdoor cold front drops south through the Old Dominion. Make sure to heed any weather warnings, sheltering inside a sturdy building to minimize threats from strong winds or lightning.

That boundary will eventually push south of Mecklenburg County Saturday night, with Sunday now looking showery and cloudy. The left panel of this graphic shows the forecast location of the front at 8:00 p.m. Saturday, while the right panel provides the forecast precipitation totals through Monday morning:

Behind this boundary cooler air will hold down Sunday's high temperatures to the mid-80s under mostly cloudy skies. By Monday - Labor Day - that front will have slid far enough south for local skies to clear. Temperatures look to top out in the mid-80s alongside lower humidity for some enjoyable outdoor conditions.

 

Dangerous heat levels through the end of the week

It's still officially summer, but those who might protest that "summer is always hot" are underestimating the heat danger both today - Wednesday - and tomorrow. Afternoon temperatures near the century mark coupled with very sticky humidity levels will yield heat indices (what it feels like) well above 100º both days. Temperatures at dawn won't drop much below the mid-70s, so there won't be much overnight relief.

This combination has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a heat advisory beginning at 11 o'clock this morning and lasting through 8:00 p.m. tomorrow evening.

Although there is a very small chance of showers or storms both evenings, precipitation will remain scanty and scattered until Friday afternoon. By that time a "cold" front will have approached close enough to Mecklenburg County to trigger rain and storms. Until then, expect stifling heat and humidity to blanket the area.

In the meantime, practice heat safety and keep an eye on those most vulnerable to this level of late summer heat. Autumn weather is coming, but it isn't here yet!

Sauna-like conditions begin the work week

Today - Monday, August 31st - is the last official day of meteorological summer, but the weather doesn't pay attention to human definitions. Mecklenburg County will see a resurgence of summertime heat and humidity this week, starting with today's afternoon highs in the mid-90s. The reason for this latest heat wave can be laid at the doorstep of an upper level ridge parked over the eastern half of the nation. 

These ridges feature sinking air underneath them, resulting in generally clear skies and rising temperatures. This graphic showing the upper air flow illustrates this weather feature:

Having said that, there could be a stray shower or storm across the county late this afternoon into the evening. No widespread precipitation is expected, however.

Tuesday looks to be even steamier, with morning temperatures only sagging into the 70s alongside increasing humidity. Tomorrow afternoon local thermometers will climb into the mid-90s to begin the month of September. Again, there is a very slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm tomorrow, but that would be a very localized phenomenon. 

This latest heat wave will continue until a backdoor cold front makes its way south of the area sometime Friday. Until then, the 90s are back in town! 

"False fall" is over and some significant heat is back this week

The pleasantly comfortable conditions of last week (aka "false fall") will be only a memory over the next several days. Heat and humidity are returning with a vengeance Monday. Morning low temperatures look to begin the work week in the sticky low 70s before creeping their way up into the upper 70s by Thursday. Meanwhile, afternoon highs will climb back into the upper 90s and even flirt with the triple digits later in the week.

This graphic shows that this heat is expected to cover the eastern half of the country:

Little or no chance of rain is in the forecast to alleviate the heat through most of the week. Not only will that keep the heat in place, but the continued lack of rain certainly won't help the drought situation!

Scattered showers and storms, but not a washout weekend

This Friday morning began with fog in some locales thanks to temperatures and dew points equalling each other. A "cold" front which crossed the mountains last night is on the doorstep, and it will wobble back and forth across the region over the next 24-36 hours. Today will thus feature mixed sunshine and clouds, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s.

Showers and storms are possible later this afternoon through the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather today, with strong straight-line winds being the chief threat. However, several short range weather models currently agree that any storms would hold off until near or after sunset, lessening the threat of severe weather.

That boundary looks to push just south of Mecklenburg County tonight. A light northeasterly breeze behind it will help keep Saturday a few degrees cooler, with afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Showers and storms are less likely but still possible tomorrow. By Sunday that front will be far enough south to allow for more sunshine and less clouds, with temperatures ranging from morning lows in the upper 60s to afternoon highs in the upper 80s.

Meanwhile, the irony of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is that the only current disturbance is Tropical Storm Dolly:

Storm names are chosen several years in advance, so this is just a coincidence given the recent death of the beloved Dolly Parton. The good news is that this storm will weaken as it moves west, lessening the chances of creating havoc over populated areas. I'm sure Dolly herself would have been pleased at that.

Humidity and rain chances return for the second half of the week

The very pleasant late August conditions continued this Wednesday morning, with local thermometers recording lows at or just below the 60º mark. Correspondingly low dew points made for another night of low humidity and comfortable sleeping. However, both temperatures and humidity will be on the rise later today as the high pressure responsible for this pleasant weather finally moves off the East Coast.

Under partly cloudy skies this afternoon's temperatures look to top out in the upper 80s, with southerly winds pumping higher humidity into Mecklenburg County. Since humid air is more efficient at holding in the day's heat, overnight temperatures will only drop to near 70 degrees by dawn Thursday. Tomorrow afternoon's highs will again be in the upper 80s, but the stickiness will be much more noticeable. Shower and storm chances will also be on the increase Thursday afternoon, continuing into the overnight hours.

Meanwhile, there has been a lot of media chatter about the current El Nino setup. One of the effects of that specific weather pattern is to suppress the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, while over in the eastern Pacific things can be rather active. This graphic illustrates the current difference:

Even the one potential storm shown on Atlantic (left) panel isn't likely to strengthen or even survive. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is still a couple weeks away, so it's worth keeping an eye on. But at the moment there's nothing that looks to affect local conditions.

"Chamber of Commerce" weather begins the work week

Bright blue skies, lowered humidity, and plenty of sunshine...those conditions sound a bit anomalous for late August in Mecklenburg County. Strong high pressure diving south out of central Canada is in control of the weather across the eastern half of the U.S. That atmospheric feature brought a refreshing break from the typical summer feeling around these parts. 

To further illustrate the point, check out these low temperatures since midnight:

The thermometer at the Clarksville site dipped below the 60º mark this Monday morning(!). Meanwhile, the temperature at the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake dam only dropped to the mid-60s thanks to the nearby warm waters of the reservoir.

Temperatures this afternoon will still climb into the upper 80s, which is actually the average high for late August locally. Tonight the core of the cool air will settle in across the county, likely leading to Tuesday morning temperatures a few degrees lower than this morning's readings. Tomorrow afternoon's highs will mirror today's readings, topping out again in the upper 80s.

This cool and dry interlude looks to continue through at least Wednesday afternoon. Enjoy!

Ahhhhh...a cool change is in place

A relatively strong August cold front pushed across Mecklenburg County this Sunday morning, opening the door to cooler and - more importantly - drier air. This is all due to a southward dip in the jet stream across the eastern U.S. as illustrated here:

And, as shown, the heat continues across western sections of the country, with a long-running heat wave still in place out that way.

Skies will thus be sunny today locally, with thermometers halting their afternoon rise in the mid-80s. Dew points in the mid-60s this morning will drop the rest of the day as that drier air continues to filter in. By the time the sun sets at 7:54 p.m. over the Buggs Island / Kerr Lake dam, those dew points will be down to the very comfortable mid-50s. That will make for some good sleeping weather!

These nice late August conditions look to continue through midweek. By Wednesday afternoon that dip in the jet stream will flatten out, allowing moister air to creep back northward into the county. Showers and storms will return Wednesday night, with daily chances of rain lasting into the final weekend of the month.

Enjoy the break in the humidity!

Sunshine early Friday will give way to more clouds and rain

A slow moving "cold" front helped create the conditions for some rough and tumble storms Thursday evening. Trees were reported down in Chase City just before 7:00 p.m., and a funnel cloud was sighted north of Baskerville after 8 o'clock. Meanwhile, Boydton recorded over an inch of rainfall before things settled down.

That precipitation, plus more arriving over the next 24-36 hours, will continue to ease the drought across Virginia. This week's Drought Monitor is showing the state almost completely free of the angry red shading of the Extreme Drought conditions:

Today - Friday - will begin with calm weather as that "cold" front has sagged a bit south of the county. Light northerly winds and partly cloudy skies will keep temperatures from climbing past the mid-80s this afternoon. By the dinner hour, however, an upper air disturbance coupled with that nearby boundary will foster more showers and storms.

Saturday looks to be the wet half of the upcoming weekend. The continued proximity of that front will keep cloudy skies across the area, with temperatures topping out only in the low 80s tomorrow afternoon. Showers and storms will be likely through the wee hours of Sunday morning.

A stronger cold front crossing the Appalachian Mountains will clear away the clouds, leaving behind drier air for a beautiful Sunday. Sunshine, light winds, and afternoon temperatures in the mid-80s will make for pleasant weather to end the weekend.

A slightly less humid Wednesday will give way to a stickier Thursday

Summertime "cold" fronts typically bring drier - but not much cooler - air into Mecklenburg County. Tuesday morning's boundary passage did just that, allowing the stickiness to ease overnight. That helped this (Wednesday) morning's temperatures around the county to actually dip into the upper 60s at a couple of locales.

Sunny skies and the strong August sunshine will boost this afternoon's highs to the 90º mark on most local thermometers. However, with this slightly drier air mass in place the heat index will remain below the triple digit mark for a slightly more comfortable day. The clear skies will continue into tonight.

Tomorrow will feature a rapid return of higher humidity thanks to two factors. First, the aforementioned boundary - now well south of the area - will push back north. As it does so, another front will be crossing the Appalachians from the Ohio valley. The combination will open the door to very sticky air still residing across the southeastern states.

Thus, after a mostly sunny first half of Thursday, showers and storms return to the forecast tomorrow afternoon. That second "cold" front will hang up near the coast early Friday morning. The boundary's proximity to Mecklenburg County will foster a significant amount of rain Thursday night through Friday. This NWS Wakefield graphic shows expected totals across the region by Saturday morning:

At this point it looks like another split-personality weekend upcoming, with a cloudy and damp Saturday followed by a sunny and dry Sunday. The next blogpost will take a closer look at that on Friday.

The work week begins with heat concerns

Today (Monday), temperatures which began the morning in the low and mid-70s will soar into the mid-90s across Mecklenburg County this afternoon. Meanwhile the humidity will remain in the very uncomfortable range. Those two parameters will combine to make today's Heat Risk map look like this across Virginia:

The heat index looks to breach the century mark this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. After the dinner hour a few showers or storms will be possible as a "cold" front oozes over the Appalachians. That boundary will slowly edge its way across the Piedmont tonight, gradually opening the door to very slightly cooler air.

Tuesday will thus be less hot (hesitate to say "cooler"), with afternoon temperatures stopping their climb at the 90º mark on local thermometers. As a result, although humidity levels will remain sticky tomorrow's Heat Risk map locally will be in the orange range vs. today's angry red shading. 

Oh, and one other note: Tuesday's sunset will be the last day of 2026 with a sunset time of 8:00 p.m. for the Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir dam. Autumn is on the horizon!