The Wedge is finally on its way out

"Da Wedge" (i.e. cold air damming) is one of the most frustrating weather conditions for forecasters as well as the general public. This thin layer of cool surface air "wedges" itself up against the mountains, trapping clouds, moisture, and cool temperatures over the Piedmont and refusing to budge. Here's one example of the 8:00 a.m. surface map this Wednesday morning:

In addition to much cooler than average temperatures across Mecklenburg County precipitation totals have made for a soggy week so far. Rain gauges in South Hill, Boydton, Chase City, and Clarksville have collected 1.46", 0.58", 1.17", and 1.58" as of this writing. Another half-inch to an inch is expected by the weekend.

This stubborn setup will gradually break down and move away later today. Sunshine even looks possible after the lunch hour, helping to boost temperatures back into the low 70s this afternoon. That's still 8-10 degrees below the late May average high temperature, but it's warmer than the start of the work week!

As a cold front inches closer on Thursday showers and possibly thunderstorms will develop. Despite mostly cloudy skies local thermometers will surge to near the 80º mark tomorrow afternoon, with southwesterly winds pushing warmer air into the area. Friday's conditions looks to be almost a carbon copy of Thursday's, with the added potential for strong to severe storms that afternoon. 

The weekend weather? At the moment it appears to be sunny and warm, conditions that would have been nice to have had this past weekend. Friday's blogpost will take a closer look at that, along with an update on any severe weather potential for the end of the work week.

Brief Sunday afternoon update

The rain forecast to arrive late this afternoon is now delayed until later tonight per the latest forecast model runs. That also means that the precipitation will take longer to depart on Monday. Thus Memorial Day itself now looks to be damp through at least the lunch hour, with mostly cloudy skies persisting all day. Temperatures will begin the day in the mid-50s before climbing into the upper 60s for afternoon highs.

Tuesday and Tuesday night then both look very wet, with Mecklenburg County rain gauges collecting up to an inch of liquid by Wednesday morning:

Tuesday will also be raw and chilly under cloudy skies, with an easterly breeze and afternoon highs only climbing to the mid-60s. Wednesday will be a bit warmer but still likely damp and cloudy. We'll take a closer look at mid-week conditions in Wednesday's blogpost.
 

Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start of summer

Drier and cooler air following Thursday's cold front passage helped this Friday morning's temperatures dip into the lower 50s around Mecklenburg County. Boydton won the "prize" for the lowest reading at 50º. Skies will be clear today, with westerly winds gusting up to 20 mph as afternoon temperatures climb into the low 70s.

Memorial Day weekend then looks to be mostly dry but cooler than average for the unofficial beginning of the summer vacation season. Temperatures Saturday through Monday will top out in the mid-70s, several degrees below the average afternoon high of 80. Skies will be mostly sunny tomorrow, but clouds will gradually thicken Sunday afternoon as an upper air disturbance approaches from the northwest. 

Rain chances will also increase late Sunday, with precipitation likely holding off until near sunset. Sunday night will be damp, with local rain gauges collecting between a tenth and a quarter-inch of liquid by dawn Monday. As that disturbance slides eastward Memorial Day itself then will turn out to be partly sunny. Outdoor conditions for those holiday cookouts should be pleasant, but the real reason for Memorial Day should be kept in mind.

Unless the forecast changes significantly the next Mecklenburg County Weather blog post will be on Wednesday 5/28. Meanwhile, here's some good news about the dry conditions across Virginia. Recent rainfall has helped the drought ease quite a bit!

Wet start for Wednesday

This Wednesday morning a warm front is hovering along the North Carolina / Virginia state line. The proximity of this boundary plus a weak low pressure center along it fostered plenty of precipitation during the overnight hours. Several Mecklenburg County rain gauges had recorded over an inch by 8:00 a.m. with more on the way.

Those showers will slowly wane as the morning progresses, looking to end around the lunch hour. Some sunshine likely to peek through the clouds later this afternoon. High temperatures today depend a lot on the exact location of that warm front. The forecast surface map at 2 p.m. is shown here:

The official forecast high today is the mid- to upper 70s, but there is some uncertainty associated with that. Should the warm front wobble a county or two further south than expected local thermometers may have difficulty reaching the 70º mark. There is also a chance of a couple of strong thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak cold front squeaks through the area.

Tonight any showers or storms will depart before midnight, leaving behind clearing skies and drier air. Thursday will begin with temperatures in the mid-50s amid sunshine and westerly winds which will gust up to 20 mph behind a second cold front (blue line shown over the Ohio valley in the above graphic). Highs tomorrow afternoon will climb to the upper 70s, but lower dew points will make for a more comfortable feeling to the outdoors.

The Memorial Day weekend looks cooler than average with dry weather until late Sunday. This coming Friday's blogpost will take a closer look at those conditions.

Sunshine Monday will dwindle Tuesday afternoon

The week leading up to Memorial Day weekend has begun amid glorious spring weather. Today - Monday - started out with temperatures around Mecklenburg County in the mid-50s. Those readings will climb into the low 80s this afternoon under clear skies and abundant sunshine. Winds will be lighter and less gusty than this past weekend's breeziness.

Tonight's skies will continue to be mostly clear, with local thermometer readings dropping back into the upper 50s by dawn Tuesday. Tomorrow morning will feature mostly sunny skies, but clouds will re-enter the picture during the afternoon hours as the next low pressure system moves into the Ohio valley. Temperatures tomorrow will top out in the upper 70s, just about the average high for the third week of May.

Conditions will go downhill Tuesday night as that low pressure system crosses the Appalachians. Showers look likely to begin wetting down Mecklenburg County after midnight Tuesday, continuing through much of Wednesday. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has the region under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather on Wednesday. (Keep those weather warning sources handy!)

These May rain events are helping dispel the dry conditions of the late winter/early spring period. Last week's Drought Monitor (the latest available) shows a noticeable improvement across the southern half of the Old Dominion:

Sunny and warm to begin the week before cooler air arrives

Today - Sunday - will wind up sunny despite morning clouds. A cold front which pushed across Mecklenburg County after midnight last night has opened the door to lower dew points. So, although this afternoon's high temperatures will reach the low 80s, the outdoors won't feel oppressive with that drier air in place. Westerly winds will continue to gust over 20 mph before calming near sunset. Temperatures will tumble into the mid-50s by dawn Monday.

Tomorrow's weather will then look very much the same, albeit with lighter winds. Then, as the next strong low pressure center approaches on Tuesday, local conditions will begin to shift toward a cooler and wetter regime. Showers are possible Tuesday afternoon and will become more likely during the overnight hours. Clouds and rain will continue through Wednesday, with thunderstorms possibly entering the picture by then. 

That low pressure center will be off the East Coast by Thursday morning before slowly trekking its way northward into New England. The overall effect of this system will be to yank cooler air into the eastern half of the lower 48 states. Here's a depiction of high temperatures on Thursday:

This graphic also resembles the 6-10 day high temperature outlook. Thus next weekend (Memorial Day) looks like it'll be cooler than average. 

Happy Sunday!

Severe weather potential to begin the weekend

Thunderstorm clusters forming well west of the Appalachian mountains will have a say on Mecklenburg County's weather both Friday and Saturday. If those clusters hang together - which is not a certainty as of this moment - folks could see at least a couple rounds of strong to severe storms beginning this Friday afternoon. Reminder: folks should have at least two ways of receiving any weather warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NOAA weather radio, smartphone apps, local TV/radio, friends, etc). 

Here's the Storm Prediction Center outlook for Friday through dawn Saturday:

Note the darker shadings out west, signifying higher potential for severe weather out where those storm clusters will form. Virginia is under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5), which covers the potential for strong storms both this afternoon and during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. 

Meanwhile, temperatures will climb from this morning's mid- to upper 60s to near the 90º mark under sunny skies. The greatest storm potential looks to be during the late afternoon hours, but a lot of uncertainty is attached to this timing. A second round is expected well after midnight as remnants of another cluster (a Mesoscale Convective System) crosses the mountains. Possible threats include damaging winds, large hail, and even a small chance of a tornado, so having a way to hear warnings while folks are sleeping would be a good idea. (Outdoor sirens are just that...outdoors. They may not be audible inside a building.)

Saturday will begin with very sticky humidity and temperatures in the low 70s. Local thermometer readings will again top out near 90º tomorrow before a cold front presses through the area near sunset. Westerly winds will gust over 20 mph at times ahead of that boundary's arrival. 

Sunday looks to feature much quieter conditions, with sunny skies and afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Although those readings will be several degrees above the mid-May average, the post-cold front air will be much less humid. Thus Sunday will be a very pleasant spring day.