Substantial rainfall on the way, then much cooler for the work week

Enjoy the sunshine this Sunday morning, as Mecklenburg County skies will grow cloudy after the lunch hour. Today's June-like warmth - with morning lows near 70º and afternoon highs in the mid-80s - will be just a memory during the upcoming work week. The slow moving cold front associated with the powerful storm system which brought severe weather to sites west of the Appalachians is finally on the move.

Scattered showers will arrive by mid-afternoon today, with steadier rain moving in after sunset. Temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 50s by dawn Monday, topping out only in the low 60s tomorrow under cloudy wet skies. Rain will continue all day, with local gauges collecting 2-3 inches of liquid by the time it all ends Monday night:

That cold front will pass across the county Monday afternoon, dropping temperatures into the low 50s by dark. A second cold front will then swoop through overnight Monday, both drying things out and opening the door for much cooler air to overspread the area. Tuesday will begin with thermometer readings in the low 40s. 

Despite sunny skies those readings will top out only in the mid-50s Tuesday afternoon accompanied by northwesterly breezes. Overnight Tuesday winds will calm and temperatures will plummet into the upper 20s, with chances of scattered frost(!) around the area. The remainder of the work week looks to be dry but cooler than April averages. 

A "June-ish" weekend before spring re-arrives

This Friday morning the continuation of southwesterly breezes has boosted Mecklenburg County's dew points into the mid- and upper 60s. That's even humid by summer-time standards:

Here in early April this level of humidity is very out of character, and it will be accompanied by much above average temperatures over the weekend. This afternoon's highs will climb into the low 80s, with local thermometers repeating those readings both Saturday and Sunday.

The powerful storm system which has pounded areas west of the Appalachians with tornadoes, damaging winds, and flooding rains will edge its way eastward over the weekend. The result for Mecklenburg residents will be slowly clearing skies today with clouds and a few scattered showers moving in overnight. Saturday will begin mostly cloudy again before becoming partly sunny and dry. Both days will also feature gusty southwest winds and continued sticky humidity levels.

Sunday will reverse the trend of cloudy starts, beginning the day partly sunny and becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon. Southwest winds will become even gustier (25-30 mph), and showers will move in after the lunch hour as the aforementioned storm system approaches. Sunday night the rain will become steadier, possibly accompanied by strong thunderstorms.

The rain will be welcome given the increasingly dry conditions around the area. Then, after the cold front associated with the storm system moves through on Monday, next week looks to be somewhat cooler than the April average. More on that in Sunday's blogpost.

The Wedge is back, temporarily

The severe weather which was forecast on Monday did not materialize for most of Virginia. That was good news for residents, but it wasn't helpful for weather forecasters' reputations. Rest assured, meteorologists at the National Weather Service and local broadcast outlets are some of the best in the world at recognizing the signals for severe weather. On Monday, however, the ingredients did not mix together at the right time here in the Old Dominion for severe storms to occur.

Meanwhile, today - Wednesday - the "Wedge" (cold air damming) is back. 

Clockwise wind flow around high pressure over eastern Canada and New England is forcing moist surface air eastward from off the cool Atlantic waters. The result for Mecklenburg county will be clouds and seasonable temperatures today. Average daily highs to begin April are in the upper 60s, and this afternoon's thermometer readings will top out a few degrees below that.

This version of the "Wedge" won't last long. The warm front (red line with semicircles on the graphic) draped across the Carolinas will retreat northward tonight ahead of the next large scale storm system marching across the nation. There could be scattered sprinkles as that boundary moves through the county. 

Thursday will then begin mostly cloudy but will turn sunny as the day progresses. Temperatures will soar into the low 80s by the afternoon as southwesterly winds gust over 20 mph, bringing in warmer and moister air. Tomorrow will feel sticky with dew points climbing into the mid-60s.

On Friday a cold front will stall across Virginia, but at the moment the rain associated with it looks to stay mostly north of Mecklenburg County. The summer-like temperatures and humidity will continue through the weekend, with rain holding off until late Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile next week is looking cooler than average.

Storms late Monday afternoon, then sunny Tuesday

The Storm Prediction Center has backed off a bit on its convective outlook for today (Monday). However, Mecklenburg County is still under a Slight Risk - level 2 of 5 - for severe storms, which will be knocking on the doorstep at or just after suppertime today. The main hazards will be strong straight line winds, always dangerous lightning, and heavy rain (up to an inch across the region). A tornado or two is still a possibility. Storms will continue into the late evening hours.

With this potential for severe weather folks should have more than one way to receive weather warnings. 

And remember that a "Watch" means conditions are ripe for severe weather, while a "Warning" means it is happening now and it's time to take shelter inside a solid building (not a car port, garage, or mobile home).

Temperatures which began this morning in the low to mid-60s will top out near 80º this afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but some sunshine is likely to appear ahead of the storms' arrival. Dew points are in the 60s, a very sticky range for the last day of March.

The actual surface cold front will finally cross the county after midnight tonight. Tuesday will then dawn sunny, cooler, and less sticky. Temperatures near 50º at sunrise (6:59 a.m. to begin the month of April) will climb into the mid-60s tomorrow afternoon, accompanied by a northerly breeze. Wednesday also looks to be dry and sunny, with more rain expected later in the week.

March may well go out like a lion!

The warmth and moisture being pumped into the region between an early season Bermuda High and an approaching storm system could result in severe weather Monday, March 31st. This is the Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook for tomorrow, showing an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for Mecklenburg County:

All the S-L-I-M ingredients will be present in relative abundance: Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture. Thus the potential threats will include damaging straight line winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes. It would be wise to maintain situational awareness and have at least two methods of receiving weather warnings close by (NOAA weather radio, local TV/radio, smartphones, etc.).

Today - Sunday - will be warm even under mostly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs will top out at or near the 80º mark again, and southwesterly winds will gust over 20 mph. Showers will arrive overnight ahead of Monday's main activity. These showers could be a factor in mitigating the severe threat tomorrow if they last long enough to "dampen" (pun intended) the instability.

Showers and thunderstorms Monday could begin as early as the noon hour, with the most intense action arriving during the mid-afternoon hours. Temperatures tomorrow will climb into the upper 70s ahead of the cold front. That boundary will finally push through near midnight, swapping winds around out of the northwest and ushering in cooler and drier air.

Tuesday - April Fools' Day - looks to be more seasonable under mostly sunny skies and with afternoon highs in the mid-60s. By midweek the next large scale storm system will cross the country and approach the area, bringing both more warmth and rainfall. The moisture will be a welcome relief to the recent dry trends.

The final March weekend will feel more like May

A warm front (red scalloped line on graphic) ahead of the next storm system will push north of Mecklenburg County today. 

Forecast surface map 8 p.m. Friday

Thus, after morning cloudiness the sky will turn mostly sunny this afternoon. Temperatures will soar into the mid-70s as southwesterly winds - gusting over 20 mph - pump warmer air into the county. That wind direction will also bring in more moisture, helping local dew points to climb out of their desert-dry regime.

Tonight more clouds will roll in ahead of an upper level disturbance, but no rain is anticipated. Saturday then looks to be partly sunny with continued gusty southwest winds. Local thermometers have a very good chance at reaching the 80º mark tomorrow afternoon, roughly 15 degrees above the average for the end of March.

By Sunday enough moist air will have pushed into the county that showers are likely after lunch. Rain amounts will be light, likely less than a tenth of an inch. Skies on that latter weekend day will be mostly cloudy, but temperatures will still top out in the upper 70s accompanied by continued vigorous southwesterly winds.

All eyes are then on the potential for severe weather Monday as a strong cold front punches into the warm moist air. Sunday's blogpost will take a closer look at that.

Sunshine and cool temperatures for the midweek period

This Wednesday morning began with temperatures of 36, 36, 38, and 39 degrees respectively at Clarksville, Chase City, Boydton, and South Hill weather stations. Coupled with this afternoon's forecast high in the low 60s today will turn out slightly cooler than average. At this point in March those values are 40º for lows and 65º for highs. 

Abundant sunshine and continued dry air will dominate conditions both today and Thursday, with today also featuring some gusty winds. Tomorrow looks to begin even cooler, with local thermometers dipping very close to the freezing mark. That could mean scattered frost around the county, a reminder that it's still too early in the season to plant sensitive flowers or other vegetation. Thursday afternoon's temperatures will then top out in the low 60s.

The recent windiness is a result of the jet stream continuing to dive southward across the eastern U.S. in a series of upper air troughs. These dips foster low pressure systems at the surface, most of which have zoomed eastward across the Great Lakes region as they intensified. Differences in air pressure between these lows (red "L"s on weather maps) and high pressure (blue "H"s) create a pressure gradient, with stronger gradients equalling stronger winds as illustrated here:

These stronger winds are common in the spring as winter's chill struggles to hang on while heat from the equatorial region begins its seasonal march northward. That clash can also result in severe weather, which may well arrive locally early next week. Stay tuned!