Severe weather potential to begin the weekend

Thunderstorm clusters forming well west of the Appalachian mountains will have a say on Mecklenburg County's weather both Friday and Saturday. If those clusters hang together - which is not a certainty as of this moment - folks could see at least a couple rounds of strong to severe storms beginning this Friday afternoon. Reminder: folks should have at least two ways of receiving any weather warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NOAA weather radio, smartphone apps, local TV/radio, friends, etc). 

Here's the Storm Prediction Center outlook for Friday through dawn Saturday:

Note the darker shadings out west, signifying higher potential for severe weather out where those storm clusters will form. Virginia is under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5), which covers the potential for strong storms both this afternoon and during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. 

Meanwhile, temperatures will climb from this morning's mid- to upper 60s to near the 90º mark under sunny skies. The greatest storm potential looks to be during the late afternoon hours, but a lot of uncertainty is attached to this timing. A second round is expected well after midnight as remnants of another cluster (a Mesoscale Convective System) crosses the mountains. Possible threats include damaging winds, large hail, and even a small chance of a tornado, so having a way to hear warnings while folks are sleeping would be a good idea. (Outdoor sirens are just that...outdoors. They may not be audible inside a building.)

Saturday will begin with very sticky humidity and temperatures in the low 70s. Local thermometer readings will again top out near 90º tomorrow before a cold front presses through the area near sunset. Westerly winds will gust over 20 mph at times ahead of that boundary's arrival. 

Sunday looks to feature much quieter conditions, with sunny skies and afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Although those readings will be several degrees above the mid-May average, the post-cold front air will be much less humid. Thus Sunday will be a very pleasant spring day.

Tropical humidity and plenty of rain

As of this writing Mecklenburg County has only been brushed by the heavy rains which have inundated areas closer to the mountains with 3+ inches of liquid. Since the precipitation began local rain gauges have collected 0.56", 0.94", 1.13", and 1.33" at Clarksville, Chase City, Boydton, and South Hill respectively. More is on the way per this NWS Wakefield forecast graphic:

Additionally, this Wednesday morning's temperatures and dew points equal each other in the low 60s, giving rise to plenty of fog around the county. Visibilities have dwindled to a quarter-mile or less in a number of areas, so be careful when on the roads. 

This sogginess is all due to a slowly weakening upper level low pressure system which is circulating over the Midwestern states this morning. The counterclockwise air flow around that feature has been pumping moisture northward into the area. A  warm front extending from a surface low pressure center over North Carolina is parked just north of the county.

Showers will re-enter the picture later this morning, with thunderstorms likely this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe storms today. Any peeks of sunshine will provide the juice to intensify those storms, with the main threats (besides lightning and heavy downpours) will be strong straight line winds and hail. Today's high temperatures will top out in the upper 70s.

Thursday looks to be somewhat drier, although the county is under another Marginal Risk of severe weather. Overcast skies will begin the day, but by lunchtime sunshine will reappear. That, of course, will help fire up thunderstorms during the late afternoon given the continued juicy air. Temperatures tomorrow will rise from morning lows near 60º to afternoon highs in the mid-80s. 

The weekend looks somewhat drier, with daily highs continuing in the 80s. Keep that rain gear handy, and take shelter if storms are in the area!

Lots of rain is on the way

Much needed rainfall has already arrived in Mecklenburg County this Monday morning. An outer band swirling around a large upper level low pressure atop the Gulf states is ushering in this first round of precipitation locally. Today will thus be cloudy and damp, with temperatures only climbing from this morning's low 60s into the low 70s by the afternoon.

Tuesday's conditions look like a clone of today's, with more rain, clouds, and a similar temperature range. Flood Watches are in effect west and south of the county, but with 2+ inches of rain expected it wouldn't be surprising if such a watch was issued locally. NOAA's Excessive Rainfall outlooks for Monday and Tuesday hint at that:

There will be enough atmospheric instability to result in scattered rumbles of thunder today through Tuesday, but no severe weather is anticipated. 

As that upper level low slowly moves north and east during the next 48 hours it will weaken. As a result Wednesday looks to feature less widespread steady rain, but with warmer temperatures and higher thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, folks should be wary of water ponding on roadways during the more intense rainfall periods. Creeks and streams could fill up and overflow as well.

From drought to floods?

There's an old weather axiom that it takes a flood to break a drought. That may well occur this week as a firehose of moisture enters Mecklenburg County and surrounding areas. Meanwhile, today (Sunday) looks to be cloudy and mostly dry with afternoon highs in the mid-70s. A slight chance of showers is in the forecast starting late this afternoon.

The overall weekly weather picture is one of another slow moving low pressure system. That feature is over Louisiana this morning, and its eastward progress is being slowed by strong high pressure over the Great Lakes area. Counterclockwise airflow around the low center is pumping moisture northward, creating the potential for an extended period of abundant rainfall which will arrive tonight.

Counties to the west and south of Mecklenburg are already under a Flood Watch, and it wouldn't be surprising if that Watch was extended into the local area given this outlook through Wednesday morning:

Even more rain will collect in county gauges through the end of the week, with four inches not out of the question in some locales. Be alert for flooding near creeks and rivers, along with water ponding on road surfaces during the heaviest rainfall.

Temperatures this week will start out lower than May averages, with afternoon highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday. As warmer air enters the area those readings will climb into the 80s by the end of the work week. Meanwhile, keep that rain gear handy!

The weekend outlook? Sunny and pleasant

Thursday's storms mostly missed Mecklenburg County, with very little rainfall recorded in local gauges. In contrast, counties just to the west saw downpours which included hail and damaging winds. Today - Friday - there is a chance of showers and storms across Mecklenburg County, but rain amounts will again likely be paltry.

Sunrise this morning at the John H. Kerr dam was at 6:09 a.m., and sunset will occur at 8:10 p.m. this evening. Temperatures which began the day in the low 60s will top out in the mid-70s this afternoon behind a cold front, which will push through this morning. Winds will turn around out of the northwest, and skies will be at least partly sunny much of the day.

The weekend then looks to feature glorious early May weather. Sunshine, light breezes, and afternoon highs in the 70s will prevail both Saturday and Sunday. Overnight weather will also be pleasant for sleeping as temperatures drop to near 50º each morning.

Enjoy the weekend conditions. Next week looks to begin very wet as shown here:

Pleasant midweek weather to give way to end-of-week rain

This Wednesday morning began with glorious weather across Mecklenburg County. Among local thermometers the sensor at the Chase City airport "won" the prize for low temperature, with a reading of 49º. This afternoon's highs will climb into the upper 70s, with a couple of spots likely to touch the 80 degree mark. Light breezes will be out of the west today.

A few clouds will slowly spread across the area this afternoon, with tonight becoming mostly cloudy. Thursday will begin with temperatures in the mid-50s, with afternoon highs likely reaching the low 80s under mostly sunny skies. There is a small chance of showers or storms tomorrow afternoon, but a higher likelihood of rain will arrive during the evening hours. 

Friday then looks to have shower or storm chances most of the day, with the sun peeking through the clouds at times. Total rain amounts from this next weather system will be less than a quarter-inch at most locales.

This is also Hurricane Preparedness Week in Virginia, with the official beginning to the Atlantic tropical season arriving June 1st. Although Mecklenburg County doesn't have to be concerned with things like storm surge, recent tropical systems brought flooding rains, high winds, and even tornado warnings to the area. 

A few more showers and storms Monday, then drier weather arrives

This Monday morning a stationary front - associated with a surface low pressure centered over northern West Virginia - is hanging over the local area. Temperatures and dew points vary considerably across just a few miles. At this writing the Danville airport is registering both those parameters at 52º, while at Clarksville those readings are at 64º. In between those two locations thick fog covers much of Halifax and Campbell counties.

The overall placement of this boundary will determine where showers and thunderstorms will occur today. The Storm Prediction Center has Mecklenburg County on the border of a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather as shown here:

An upper level disturbance will push overhead late this morning, helping to fire up convection. Folks should expect clouds and precipitation to arrive any time from the lunch hour onward. In addition to lightning and heavy rain any storms which do form will have the potential for strong winds and hail, so take shelter if severe warnings are issued. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid-70s.

That boundary is forecast to push eastward to the coast by Tuesday morning, allowing cooler and drier air to enter Mecklenburg County. Temperatures tomorrow will top out again in the mid-70s, while dew points will drop into the low 50s. Tuesday night looks to feature very comfortable sleeping weather, with local thermometers sagging into the low 50s by dawn Wednesday.