A breezy start to the week

As this post is being penned a dry cold front is crossing the Blue Ridge Mountains. And D-R-Y is definitely the correct description, given (a) there's no precipitation associated with this boundary and (b) the drying effect of westerly winds gusting up to 30 mph behind it. In fact, much of Virginia is covered in a Red Flag Warning, with dangerous fire conditions in place until this evening.

After low temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s this morning Mecklenburg County thermometers will climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon. Then the cooler - but not Arctic! - air behind the boundary will filter in overnight, with the upper 30s providing a chilly start to Monday morning.

Afternoon highs will begin the work week in the upper 50s before climbing back into the upper 60s and even low 70s by Friday. The sole chance of a bit of rain during the work week looks to be Tuesday night, with more possible as next weekend approaches.

Warmer temperatures for the weekend

After the early week chill in the air this weekend will feature warmer conditions. Today - Friday - looks to be the "bridge" day, with Mecklenburg County thermometers climbing from the low 30s into the mid-60s. High pressure will settle across the southeastern U.S. today, allowing winds to calm under sunny skies.

The weekend will then bring even warmer air into the picture. Afternoon highs both days will be in the low 70s, ten degrees above the mid-November average. Saturday will begin mostly sunny behind a warm front which will lift northward through the region tonight. A southwesterly breeze will pick up as tomorrow progresses, ushering in that warmer air.

Clouds will then filter in later in the day ahead of a dry cold front. That boundary (blue line on the graphic) will pass through the area early Sunday as shown on this forecast map for 7:00 o'clock that morning: 

Behind that cold front winds will swap around out of the west and increase in strength, gusting up to 25 mph on the latter weekend day. Temperatures will still be warmer than average thanks to the downsloping effect of those west winds.

Enjoy the warmth as next week's temperatures looks to sag below November averages.

A non-standard Tuesday update

Normally a Wednesday blogpost covers the midweek weather, but that won't be the case this week. So, here's a Tuesday morning update.

Temperatures around Mecklenburg County this morning bottomed out below freezing, necessitating a Freeze Warning until 9:00 a.m. This represents the official autumnal end of the growing season. The area is firmly in the grip of an Arctic air mass, which means very dry conditions as signified by the arid 13º dew point at the South Hill airport as this post is penned.

Air temperatures are below mid-November averages as well. Today's high will only reach the mid-40s, and blustery winds gusting over 25 mph at times means wind chills are in vogue. The latter readings look to be 7-10 degrees below the air temperatures. The quick switch from the past weekend's warmth makes the body's adjustment to these colder conditions a bit tougher than usual.

The changes continue Wednesday, with a relatively rapid return to warmer temperatures. Tomorrow will feature afternoon highs in the 60s, but with still gusty conditions under sunny skies. Then another dry cold front will sweep across the region tomorrow night. This next boundary will usher in a more typical Canadian (vs. Arctic) air mass, with highs on Thursday again near the 60º mark. Winds will be less raucous on the latter day.

This temperature outlook indicates a decent chance of warmer than average temperatures across the eastern half of the country over the next 6-10 days:

However, keep in mind these longer range outlooks are less accurate than shorter range forecasts, so always look at these with a grain of salt.

From the 70s to snow flakes???

Yesterday's high temperatures across Mecklenburg County were in the mid-70s for a very pleasant second Sunday of November. That was before an Arctic cold front worked its way through the region. Now, this Monday morning features much drier and chillier air...but it'll get even colder!

Today's official high likely occurred just after midnight, before the Arctic invasion had a chance to take a firm grip on the area. Local thermometers will climb only a few degrees from dawn readings in the mid-40s, topping out in the upper 40s to near 50º this afternoon. Given a westerly breeze the wind chills will be 6-8 degrees cooler than those air temperatures. (Average highs at this point in November are in the mid-60s for reference.)

Tonight those temperatures will drop into the upper 20s, with a Freeze Warning in effect from 10:00 p.m. until 9:00 a.m. Tuesday. To add insult to injury an upper level disturbance will swing across the region late tonight, resulting in this modeled forecast graphic for the wee hours of Tuesday morning:

And, yes, that blue shading indicates s-n-o-w showers! Several other forecast models show this as well, so folks who are awake after midnight tonight are likely to witness flakes outside their windows. No accumulation is expected, however.

In the wake of that disturbance Tuesday also looks to feature blustery winds, which will keep the outdoors feeling very crisp tomorrow. With air temperatures struggling into the upper 40s the wind chills will be in the low 40s, something more like January than early November. Those heavier jackets and sweatshirts may feel pretty good!

Here comes the Arctic air!

Here's one model's depiction of the approaching chill at the 850 mb level (~5000' overhead):

Details for the first part of the work week's weather to come in Monday's blogpost. Suffice it to say this quick blast may require folks to drag out the winter clothes!

A frosty Friday morning, a mostly decent weekend, and then an early taste of winter

This Friday morning temperatures around Mecklenburg County sagged into the upper 30s to near 40º, sufficiently low to produce frost in many spots. But mostly sunny skies and south winds gusting over 15 mph will boost local thermometer readings into the upper 60s this afternoon. All this is ahead of yet another cold front approaching from the west.

That boundary will cross through the county just after sunrise Saturday, bringing clouds and a few light showers during the pre-dawn hours. Temperatures will begin the morning in the mid-50s. After that cold front pushes through skies will clear and winds will swap around out of the west. The air mass behind this isn't very cold, so Saturday afternoon highs will climb into the low 70s.

A second, much stronger, cold front will then begin its approach on Sunday. Skies will be partly sunny with afternoon temperatures again topping out in the low 70s. Scattered showers and even a thunderstorm or two is possible Sunday, but the day doesn't look to be a total washout.

This second boundary will pass through the area Sunday evening. It represents the leading edge of truly Arctic air, which will pour into the county Monday and Tuesday and provide a very early taste of winter. This graphic illustrates:

Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the 50º mark early next week. But then a quick warmup looks likely, so this early season blast of cold air will only make a brief stay.

Happy Friday!

It's "Winds" Day

Today's (Wednesday's) conditions hearken back to a specific children's story dealing with a "Blustery Day".  An increase in pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front will boost wind speeds as today progresses, with breezes gusting up to 25 mph. Sunshine and a southerly wind direction will help temperatures top out at or near 70º this afternoon. 

That boundary will pass through Mecklenburg County during the wee hours of Thursday morning, swapping winds around out of the north before dawn. Local thermometers, which will begin the day in the upper 40s, will climb into the low 60s after the lunch hour under continued sunny skies. The wind won't be as brisk tomorrow, calming to a light breeze by late afternoon.

Despite the relatively warm air temperatures there is a cautionary note about the effects of cool water on the human body. Here's the most recent water temperature graph for Buggs Island Lake / Kerr Reservoir showing the decreasing trend: 

Now, here's a NOAA/NWS graphic showing the dangers of hypothermia associated with water temperatures below 70º:

This is a risk that boaters venturing out on the cooling lake waters should heed. It may not be obvious, but getting wet this time of year may not be fun!