Perfect weather for the first October weekend

Folks attending the first October weekend harvest festivals around Mecklenburg County can count on the weather's cooperation. Sunshine, bright blue skies, and light winds are all on the docket this weekend. (That final factor will especially benefit the hot air balloons slated to be at Woodbine Vineyards.)

Temperatures began this Friday morning in the upper 40s at many local sites, with Chase City dipping to 47º. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low 70s. Both of those numbers are a bit below today's long term average of 78º highs and 56º lows. By month's end those figures will drop to 68º and 42º, respectively. Thus, October is very much a transition month as cooler air takes over.

However, the outlook for mid-month is for a bit warmer than average regime across the eastern two-thirds of the country. That warmth will be accompanied by a dry outlook locally, continuing the summertime trend:

Meanwhile the tropics are still in play with the National Hurricane Center keeping an eye on a couple of disturbances, neither of which is likely to affect Mecklenburg County anytime soon. Happy Friday!

Wave goodbye to Imelda and Humberto and welcome more dry weather

Welcome to October! The twin tropical threats of Hurricanes Humberto (upper right) and Imelda (lower right) are steadily progressing across the Atlantic, moving away from the U.S. as shown on this infrared satellite loop:

Current impacts to the U.S. from these storms are comprised of rough surf at East Coast beaches but little else.

Meanwhile, Chase City "won" the low temperature award this Wednesday morning with a reading of 60º. Other sites around the county dropped into the low and mid-60s. Morning clouds will gradually thin after lunch, with the sunset - at 6:57 p.m. - likely to be visible. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid-70s amid northeasterly breezes gusting up to 20 mph.

A cool Canadian high pressure system is taking charge of local weather for the next several days. Clear skies and drier air will result in chilly overnight temperatures, with Thursday morning lows sagging into the upper 40s(!) at some Mecklenburg County locales. Tomorrow's high temperature will only be in the low 70s, but the still strong October sunshine will make the outdoors feel comfortable.

It's officially time for pumpkin spice!

A cloudy but only slightly damp start to the work week

The potential effects on Mecklenburg County from Tropical Storm Imelda will be limited to clouds and a northeasterly breeze this week. That storm will remain well off the southeastern U.S. coast. The main weather impacts on local conditions come from an old stalled front located along the coastline as shown on this Monday morning's 8:00 a.m. surface map:

Thus today will feature clouds and light rain, with local gauges collecting between a tenth and a quarter-inch of liquid. Temperatures won't budge much from this morning's lows in the mid-60s, topping out only near the 70º mark this afternoon. 

Skies will remain cloudy overnight as temperatures again slowly slide into the mid-60s. Showers look to continue during the night and throughout the first half of Tuesday. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be in the low 70s under a continued overcast. Northeasterly breezes will become a bit stronger Tuesday, gusting over 15 mph at times.

By Wednesday both the tropical system and that leftover frontal boundary will have moved far enough east to allow a return of sunshine to Mecklenburg County. The rest of the week looks clear, dry, and cool, befitting the first part of October.

Plenty of rain, no tropical worries, and are the 80s gone for good?

The current buzz about possible impacts from Tropical Depression Nine (potentially to become Imelda) won't include Mecklenburg County. Given the existing steering currents that system will remain well off the southeastern coast this week per this graphic from the National Hurricane Center:

However, clouds and rain will remain locked in across the local area for the first part of the work week, thanks to a leftover frontal boundary and its associated low pressure center. Saturday's rainfall totals (in inches on this graphic) are from this combination of weather features.

With that boundary having slid south and east of the area today will be dry. Skies will remain mostly cloudy but there will be a few peeks of sunshine here and there. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 70s before sagging into the mid-60s tonight.

Rain will move back in on Monday and continue throughout Tuesday. Local gauges will register another half-inch to an inch of liquid on top of yesterday's totals. By Wednesday sunshine looks to become more prevalent as cooler and drier air is pushed into the area by strong high pressure. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 70s through midweek, and by week's end may not even reach the 70º mark.

Could this be the end of the 80s this year? With October approaching that could well be true, but stranger things have been known to occur(!).

Ready the umbrellas and keep an eye on the tropics

After weeks of very nice but very dry weather things have changed. A "cold" front which crossed the Appalachians Thursday afternoon has paused its forward progress this Friday morning. The boundary is draped over Virginia, keeping clouds and showers in the forecast for Mecklenburg County. A "wrinkle" in the front in the form of a surface low pressure center will persist over the Carolinas through the weekend. 

Thus the forecast looks quite a bit wetter than recent weeks. There will be enough breaks in the clouds today to permit the sun to peek through, warming temperatures into the low 80s and perhaps fueling some thunderstorms. Except for areas which experience storms today's overall rain totals will be rather light. 

That will change tonight, however. Both weekend days will be cloudy, humid, and cooler, with afternoon highs in the mid-70s. Here's the NWS Wakefield outlook for precipitation totals through Monday morning:

This rainfall will ease the drought situation somewhat, but more moisture will be needed to completely erase the dryness.

That moisture may well arrive early next week in the form of a tropical system. Here's this morning's National Hurricane Center outlook:

Hurricane Humberto will remain well offshore the East Coast. However, there is still uncertainty as to where the disturbance (likely to become Imelda) near the eastern tip of Cuba will track. Several models have it making landfall near the North and South Carolina border sometime Monday. Impacts on Mecklenburg County of such a track would be heavy rain and possible rotating thunderstorms. 

The forecast of this system will become clearer over the weekend. Sunday's blogpost will take a closer look at that and the potential impacts locally.

Pattern change!

The unusually dry weather around Mecklenburg County is about to take a turn toward dampness. A long lasting upper air ridge across the eastern U.S. is shifting off the coast, allowing its opposite number - a trough - to take hold. This pattern change will result in an extended period of clouds and showers in the local forecast.

This Wednesday morning began with temperatures sagging only into the mid- and upper 60s, with dew points remaining in the sticky range. Thus, this afternoon's high temperature in the upper 80s will make it feel more like a typical August day rather than late September. Today's sunshine will filter through high clouds for a partly to mostly sunny outlook.

Showers will begin to dot the local map tonight as a surface cold front approaches the Appalachians. Temperatures will begin Thursday morning near 70º before topping out in the mid-80s tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely as the day progresses, with most of Virginia under a Marginal Risk - level 1 of 5 - for severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center. The aforementioned front will cross the county early Friday.

The clouds and precipitation look to continue through the weekend into next week. Meanwhile, the Atlantic tropical season has kicked into a higher gear. Hurricane Gabrielle is moving off toward Europe, but a couple of potential named storms are moving westward:

Whether or how either of these two new systems will affect local weather is still to be determined. Keep checking the National Hurricane Center site for updates.

Today may usher in fall but it'll still feel like summer

The autumnal equinox occurs at 2:19 p.m. today, when the combination of Earth's axial tilt and its orbital position makes the Sun appear directly overhead at Earth's equator. The result is a nearly vertical line between night and day from north to south as shown in this Monday morning visible satellite image (the East Coast of the U.S. is just visible in the top center):

Fall will indeed arrive this afternoon, but it'll feel much more like summer weather with highs today in the low 80s. After a foggy morning skies will be mostly sunny today, and dew points will be in the 60s for a rather sticky feeling to the air.

Tuesday's weather will be much the same, albeit slightly warmer with local thermometers topping out in the mid-80s. For comparison, the average Mecklenburg County high temperature at this point in September is 80 degrees. By month's end that average drops into the upper 70s.

Rain is on the way later this week, with showers likely to arrive late Wednesday. The end of the work week into the weekend could be pretty damp. Wednesday's blogpost will take a closer look at that setup.