Mild Friday, then colder and damp Saturday

This Friday morning began with several Mecklenburg County thermometers dipping to the upper 20s. Under sunny skies and much tamer winds afternoon highs will climb into the mid-50s, a few degrees above the early January average. That's the bright spot for temperatures over the next few days.

Clouds will roll in tonight ahead of a "southern slider" storm, which at the moment is taking shape over eastern Texas. That system will "slide" eastward across the Gulf Coast states tonight, bringing rain to Mecklenburg County by Saturday afternoon. Cloudy skies and easterly winds will combine to hold down tomorrow's high temperatures to 40º, with up to a quarter-inch of rain expected by the time precipitation ends Saturday evening:

A few spots near and north of U.S. Route 460 could see a wintry mix tomorrow, but the temperature profile in Mecklenburg County should keep all the precipitation as plain liquid rain.

By dawn on Sunday skies will have cleared and temperatures will again drop into the upper 20s. The latter weekend day will then feature sunshine with highs in the upper 40s. Winds look to remain light out of the north for a decently pleasant first Sunday of 2026.

Clipper systems keep the winds stirred

The raucous winds earlier this week finally calmed down yesterday afternoon. However, a couple of Alberta Clippers will re-stir the breezes today - Wednesday - and again on Thursday. Today's system is relatively weak and dry, creating only a slight bump in cloud cover. This forecast model graphic shows the "wrinkle" in the air flow at roughly 20,000 ft overhead at 7 o'clock this morning:

Thursday's system will be a bit larger and more vigorous as shown on this forecast graphic at 7 a.m. tomorrow:

Clipper #2 may foster snow showers across northern Virginia, but neither system will bring precipitation to Mecklenburg County. Surface winds will pick up out of the west both days behind these systems, gusting up to 20 mph at times locally.

As for temperatures, both today and Thursday will feature afternoon highs in the upper 40s. For those taking part in New Year's Eve revelry, local thermometers will dip into the upper 30s by midnight Wednesday. At that point skies will be partly cloudy with winds out of the southwest at 5-8 mph, so ringing in 2026 outdoors will be cool but not frigid.

Happy New Year!

A gusty start to New Years' week

A strong cold front is approaching the Blue Ridge Mountains this Monday morning. Ahead of it a warm front has pushed north of Mecklenburg County, allowing brisk southwesterly winds to pump in moist and mild air under cloudy skies. As that boundary approaches and passes through the area later this morning those winds will swap around out of the west. A few light rain showers look to be possible as well.

As for temperatures, this morning's readings in the upper 50s to near 60º will be the high for today. Although skies will clear after the lunch hour local thermometers will register falling readings all afternoon. By sunset it'll be in the mid-40s, accompanied by raucous westerly winds. This forecast graphic indicates wind gusts at 4:00 p.m. this afternoon:

Cooler and drier air will pour in tonight, dropping Tuesday morning lows to the upper 20s amid still gusty winds. Tomorrow will be sunny but chilly, with afternoon highs only near 40º along with continued westerly breezes gusting over 20 mph. Winds will finally subside tomorrow night as temperatures drop back into the upper 20s by dawn Wednesday.

The sun will come out, tomorrow...and temperatures will plummet

Saturday briefly warmed into the upper 50s around Mecklenburg County before another backdoor front slipped through, heading south and west. The air pressure at the regional airport in South Hill bottomed out at 2:15 p.m. yesterday before rising rapidly. That's a clear indication of a frontal passage:

Behind it yet another cold air damming wedge took over, dropping temperatures and bringing in clouds. Sunday morning thermometer readings dropped into the low 30s and will have trouble reaching the 50º mark this afternoon. As part of the next winter storm system a warm front will then push eastward tonight, allowing gusty surface winds to swap around out of the south with scattered rain showers developing.

Monday will then be another transition day. Starting out cloudy with additional rain chances, the day's temperatures will top out in the mid-60s before nose-diving behind a strong cold front. After the lunch hour skies will clear and westerly winds will gust up to 25 mph, bringing in much colder air.

Tuesday will be a much cooler day, with mornings lows in the upper 20s and afternoon highs only in the low 40s. Temperatures the remainder of the week then look to be at or slightly under the average, with daily highs in the upper 40s. No precipitation is expected through the end of the week.

A complex weather outlook for Christmas and beyond

This Wednesday morning - Christmas Eve! - began with temperatures in the mid- to upper 40s around Mecklenburg County. A dry cold front is moving across the Old Dominion as this is being written. That boundary will drop the dew points today to create a drier feel in the air. Sunny skies will prevail as temperatures top out in the mid-60s this afternoon.

Tonight an upper level disturbance will cross the Appalachian mountains, bringing clouds and a few scattered showers to the local area. After morning lows in the upper 30s skies will clear after lunch on Christmas Day, with afternoon temperatures again looking to reach the mid-60s. More clouds and light showers will then move back in Thursday night as a "backdoor" cold front edges south across the region.

Friday's weather will then be much cooler, with cloudy skies and possible drizzle as a cold air damming wedge sets up. Here's one forecast model's temperature outlook for early Friday afternoon, with the edge of the wedge outlined in blue:

Inside the white circle is the forecast temperature (40º) for South Hill at 1:00 p.m. Friday.

The weekend then looks milder but not as warm as thought in earlier forecasts. (These cold air wedges are almost always slower to move away than expected.)  Latest model guidance has weekend high temperatures in the mid- to upper 50s with only partial sunshine. Those readings will feel downright toasty compared to next week, when yet another shot of Arctic chill will move in.

The next blog post will come on Sunday, December 28th. In the meantime, MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Sunny Monday ahead of clouds and light showers early Tuesday

Today - Monday - sunny skies will hold supremacy following Sunday's cold front passage. Dry and cool air has settled in across Mecklenburg County, with morning lows dipping to the readings shown here:

The sunshine will boost afternoon highs into the upper 40s, a couple of degrees below the average for the first full day of astronomical winter.

Clouds will roll in after the sun sets at 5:03 p.m. (in Clarksville). A small "wrinkle" in the northwesterly upper air currents will create a weak disturbance, resulting in cloudy skies and a few light rain showers tonight into early Tuesday. Rain amounts from this dry air mass will be sparse, totaling only a couple hundredths of an inch in local gauges.

Temperatures will begin tomorrow near 40º before topping out in the low 60s for afternoon highs. By the lunch hour Tuesday skies will begin to clear, allowing the sun to do its warming thing. Southwesterly winds may gust up to 20 mph for a couple hours Tuesday afternoon before subsiding.

The rest of Christmas week then looks warmer than average, but there may be a cooler trend in the temperature forecast for Friday. A couple of forecast models are beginning to indicate that a storm system tracking eastward across the country may dip a bit further south than originally thought to end the week. That just might bring a cold air damming wedge across the Piedmont. 

Wednesday's blog post will take a closer look at that.

For those awaiting winter's official arrival: We salute you

That's right...the beginning of astronomical winter is upon us today. The solstice occurs this Sunday morning at 10:03, when Sol's (our sun) apparent motion reaches its extreme southern extent. The Earth's tilt of 23.5º from the vertical makes this happen as shown in this graphic:

Weather-wise it won't feel like the beginning of winter this week. Although another cold front is due through Mecklenburg County today, the air mass behind it isn't overly chilly. Temperatures will rebound from this morning's lows in the 30s to reach afternoon highs in the upper 50s. As that boundary approaches and moves through the area cloud cover will increase and a northwest breeze will kick in.

The remainder of Christmas week looks to be mostly dry, albeit with a slight chance of showers during the first half of Tuesday as an upper level short wave trough passes through. No truly cold air masses are due into the area despite a couple more cold front arrivals. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 40s Monday to over 60º from Wednesday into the weekend. Those temperatures are well above the average for the latter half of December.